Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Spoiler alert: Tuesday’s calendar has the week’s one report with any track record for influencing price action. JOLTS’ influence may be even greater as its data can confirm or contradict last week’s ADP and Payrolls surprises.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2439.00 | 2438.25 |
| …would target | 2444.25 | 2443.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2432.75 | 2432.00 |
| …would target | 2427.25 | 2426.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Shaken, not stirred.
Unchanged, after overnight and opening dips.
Last night’s dip to test the 2433.50 bias-down signal had reacted up to a fresh post-open high at 2437.50. The open was greeted a little weaker, and a little more weakness touched 2433.50. It held. More than holding, “no-bias” triggered at 10:15, after bouncing already up to 2439.00.
Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2440.00 bias-up signal is in-play. It should define the morning range’s upper-end if tested during the no-bias environment. Recovering it through 10:30 would invalidate no-bias and be free to trend higher. I would caution against fading a premature break higher, because such things can get carried away at the highs. I might even consider being exposed to the potential for whipsaw by buying it.
Otherwise, trending higher today would be more reliably durable if begun after the bias environment had begun to lapse. Having said that, still not extending higher by noon would be vulnerable to launching a multi-session corrective drop.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Waiting for its marching orders.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Excessive optimism ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report had extended overnight to test 2437.00. But it was a “new Globex trend extreme.” Reacting poorly to the news held multiple tests of the overnight low, which remained in the orbit of the overnight high. Rallying into the afternoon probed the overnight high ultimately attacked 2440.00 into the weekend. A new trend extreme close and confirmed breakout each make at least one more new high close a requirement.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s 2437.50 close opened lower Sunday night, and soon resolved down. The dip soon fell to 2433.00, testing this morning’s bias-down signal by 2 ticks, before beginning to firm. The reversal ended abruptly when it touched Friday’s 2437.50 close, reversing down to 2434.50 which was just touched minutes ago.
If, then…
This weekend’s Saturday Review discussed the two major influences, which are contradicting each other. We discussed reasons why today’s session is vulnerable to launching a corrective downleg, such as measurements and pattern elements. The contradictory influence also makes today vulnerable to reversing down — that is, the rally requires at least one more eventual higher close. That entrenchment often — not usually, but often — inserts a counter-trend move. Probing higher intraday would not ensure lasting through the close, nor would dipping this morning prevent recovering intraday. But these two influences are each strong enough to give early trending a benefit of the doubt for extending.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2435.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2433.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2430.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Monday its regularly length week it is really the first Monday of the month having ended May last week on Wednesday the month ended on a strong note we covered a lot of this all this really in the Saturday review so I won’t be covering it again other than its conclusions and remember there are a couple reasons couple there are reasons on other side of the equation why we can look for at some Future Point be relatively confident in their being at least one more higher clothes in this rally could be today doesn’t mean if we rally this morning that today will be the day and it doesn’t mean it today does close hire that there won’t be higher closes but the confirm break Avenue Trenton close on a Friday those do create the requirement for a new trend advantage of that and use it as an opportunity to I also had some unfinished business below at 12810 when 2815 Gap outstanding doesn’t seem interested in testing it though and it was a gap it was created in the process of fulfilling are filling another Gap so really difficult time that and then the Looney really been under pressure here as this pull back objective not a big of jective has not been met me not a major pulled back here just a little prioritize so suspicious of any rally that develops in the interim and by the way around we made to be developing in the interim and this is the Looney where we have somewhat of an inverted Head and Shoulders you see the upward slope that really makes it a pivotal correction still has a similar measurement at least in my work to get us out to 7450 maybe even new highs 7515 which would be interesting because that would leave outstanding this correction and still be the product of a shallow to shallow pull back so unless that’s actually triggered by closing today about 7425 still looking for the pullback two to be in control to dominate influence at cetera and the euro 1265 6055 actually would put put not in the back burner so much as just put away the potential for this pattern it was done it was done by find that it is imperative crude oil interesting it has on a couple of cell signals here lower and lower lows they’re not closing lower like Friday’s close was that or overlapping the but it does require that he Tuesday and Wednesday Wednesday and.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/3/17) …Entrenched.
Has there ever been so much negativity surrounding a market rally? “The last time P/E vs. Interest rates were at this level…” “The last time insider sellers vs. buyers reached this degree…” The last time the percentage of volume was concentrated among this small a portion of stocks…” The last time index gains were attributable to so few stocks…” We get it.
Those data are all correct, of course. But the last time the market rallied to new highs amid such extreme negativity… it kept going. The last time, and every time. At least, in the near term. Or, at least, immediately reversing down proved only temporary.
In fact, this week may launch immediately into a correction. Primary indexes are all simultaneously testing a 62.8% projection of their recent narrow bases. That’s natural resistance. And now that the week has ended with at least two structural developments entrenching the uptrend — confirmed breakout, and new trend extreme close on a Friday — at least one more higher close is required.
Fulfilling that upside requirement may be the most bearish metric possible right now. A bullish scenario would draw upon the counter-intuitive: A correction that renews the spirit of the battered bearish opposition would keep alive the uptrend.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GDXJ, IBB, GDX, STX, AMGN, CELG, REGN, ETH
Transcript: Tthe last month of the quarter starting now and so we’re going to come back to that just keep everything in mind this is a quarter bu if things start to happen as we enter the final stretch one thing that happened into the final stretch into the end of the second month of the quarter and intuitive women’s Choice report is optimism excessive optimism not necessarily extreme optimism optimism suggest that we’re at a peak Wednesday Wednesdays that position the market to actually Gap up above prize didn’t do it flushed right out and how big is on Wednesday Gap up or maintain a gap up above the upper end of the range but wasn’t rejected the way Wednesday had been again optimism as soon as the bias environment started lapsing rallied the way it would have rallied had the open actually gapped up above prioritize the way the morning would have ran late at the open gapped up above prioritize the way we would have anticipated it Haven but we still had by signals and place and they took off as well the point is though that’s a lot of optimism ahead of and employment situation report and employment Swiss report was anticipated very optimistic Lee as well not just the prior day but overnight until just hours before and then the reaction it was a little excessive that optimism at that point and the reaction took us back down to the overnight ranges low right there despite there being a new glove xtrend extreme that required being tested intraday off in the same day but not always despite that newly created unfinished business above the market the open was in proximity to the overnight low and had that overnight low been broken through the open the market would have broken free from the gravitational pull or the orbit of the overnight High and remember Wednesday back here that would have been the effect the objective being 2150 2250 and that was avoided so is that sellers are not just not strong handed they are Their Own Worst Enemy because they keep making it easier for buyers to step in buyers are excessively out or not not excessively overly optimistic extreme or not right not extremely optimistic but excessively optimistic and we can tell that from the slopes we can tell that from the pullbacks there is no lower low and any of this there’s one overnight and that’s not matched through any other there’s the last low overnight Thursday night fresh low on it you need to to reverse the trend and you don’t get it. Overnight not until intraday is there a pull back when we remove the overnight from the equation move the overnight from the equation I had a Fridays open not even detectable this is what I call a Satchel Paige rally Satchel Paige Kansas City monarchs baseball team famous for saying don’t look back you don’t want to see what’s gaining on you and that’s where this markets at where this leg of this stage of this kind of a market is at it can’t afford correction not a deep one not a complete one it doesn’t have a kind of sponsorship sorb buyers sufficiently so that and still have leftover to resume the rally and so it’s steep gettin It’s Gettin his much distance is a can a head of items so that they don’t reverse the trend by breaking under so it’s because now on just the next hour hour-and-a-half so we know though there’s at least another day of rallying out there because of two reasons one is here’s a multi-session range multi section range not starting last Thursday but between last Thursday and Friday we’ve got two sessions in the same range multi session in fact that extends to three sessions in fact that extends the four sessions this probe below the three sessions opens within the range closes within the range two sessions will suffice but this is a multi-session range that breaks out Thursday afternoon and that is confirmed we want confirmation second consecutive clothes confirms breakout confirm breakouts require at least an eventual third higher close this is entrenched as well because this is a Friday and it’s a new trend high or new trend extreme and other direction on a Friday that to forget about the context of a multi-session ranger the prior session bingo break out this alone these two conditions the new trend extreme and it being a Friday also don’t happen unless the market is just not necessary so sure of One Direction but so unsure of the other direction to such an extent that it produces a new extreme clothes Trend extreme close all time just for that trend but on a Friday and that tells us you can see it on Friday 2399 instead it was 20 for the 250the real value to the next Tire close or I’m sorry too knowing that a higher closes coming is that the next Tire close isn’t so long as Monday doesn’t immediately fulfill that newly created outstanding objective of at least one more higher close so only as Monday and maybe even several days where to begin a pullback correction remember stay away from 2401 7524 e 275 so long as the next leg is already under or the next day is already beginning and pull back the deeper the pull back the more upside that we have a reasonable expectation of getting because there will be an outstanding are close immediately fulfilling that are closed on Monday robs us of that information immediately pulling back give us that information to know look for a spot to get long could be these lower prize 2415 I don’t think so though I don’t think that deep of a pull back if we do get an immediate fullback before resuming the rally and why because we’re in the Satchel Paige face were in the overly optimistic face can’t afford too deep of a pulled back or whatever is behind us we’ll have gained on us we don’t want to see that 1750 up to 24 just eyeballing this we got lower prioritize here from Thursday afternoon 2575 so these are levels that I want to look at it for testing them on a pulled back so negative need jerk reaction to something happens over the weekend or Monday morning in any case we could be on our way to a fresh High clothes and another new High clothes that would satisfy that objective and something to rails that or two rails organically and any case doesn’t produce that fresh High will definitely want to know where we might want to consider buying for that recovery that highly reliable recovery to a fresh dried clothes here’s a bigger picture chart we’ve got Marcus High it’s fullback correction Breakout breakout never got to a fresh eye before correcting or Not Afraid close at least that required any follow-through wasn’t a break out clothes on a new high that’s why that fresh I entered a was so vulnerable to what did follow I’ll be it quickly worked out this continues to be a market that when trending when it tries poking its head out is very vulnerable to abruptly reversing the trend the major moves here are being made mostly from within the range to the upper and and then briefly above it this is one of the first multi-session probes above a prior High in a while so having closed above 24 24 25 next time for noise of 24 4750 up to 24 5525 now there’s another measurement in here we’re kind of removed from it it was more in target range or more in proximity priority yesterday’s open but that would have been too close back under 24 2150 is closing under 20 150 what already start the domino effect some support some lower Pioneer 2415 but start the domino effect of they’re just not being any Escape maybe we get off of 2415 depending on how that’s met if it’s not staged over a couple sessions if it’s quick pull that Band-Aid off cover intraday but we make a couple of lower closes under 24 2158 2415 and the next legs a doozy remember 2399 support really not existent maybe obligatory temporary but that pretty much ends the rally gets his down to 8384 lower and then certainly no bullets reason to revisit this so looking at the markets are stacking up compared to each other the three major indexes that reflect speculation conservative investing and then the control group let’s measure that in terms of percentages so whether or not the base is stable by being lengthy and choppy or whether it’s unstable by being briefed and shallow the percentage Remains the Same and in this case 161 8 lot of resistance their resistance at 6180 no coincidence really that we spent two entire timing windows or an entire time we would have basically into the final half-hour on Thursday fluctuating around the 61 8 if that extends to 6180 pretty much gives us out to 4755 so what’s going on with the speculative kind of different speculative kept poking its head up just another reason why we weren’t looking for a new bear Market we were more expecting at least a correction or and most agrex I should say and q’s don’t lead but they certainly weren’t reflecting that bigger money and there’s only a hundred sides here they tend to be the highest-profile most widely followed among technological including by attack other growth things that cetera and so this is where bigger money has to go because they need to liquidate and the same measurements get us pretty much to 261 8 we take the upper end of the range it’s last relative High but discount that that I’m sorry Wednesday session and q’s already to 261 8th and exceeding so not showing any signs that the speculative fervor is wavering and then the Dow which was a little bit better at completing that correction we don’t even have a last relative hi to measure from that’s it is 61 8 not 161 8 not 261 a projection but just to 61 8th and that’s not to say that the down this is he really has that much more potential upside has some please don’t really have that much more potential upside just because and q’s have outperformed to the tune of 261 this is a normal alignment not specifically to the calculation Advanced going to continue in advance that if it were blindsided with something would likely recover this is a normal relationship again top do you get less attractive to be less attractive to new buyers just something about that ratio during natural ratio that has a psychological effect am a psychological effect so there’s not per Tutti for a pullback but from those levels are not in her sleep on those levels but from those from that relationship where the speculative is leading and the conservative is lagging probably not durable reversal if there is one and it’s some point or reversal that we need to be bought for a retest of the high and that is if the patterns don’t extend anyway and if they do extend any way from these relationships and from these calculations it seems counterintuitive to say that just makes the legs shake Yer or the bases less stable that’s just more of the Satchel Paige Behavior because eventually they all have to turn around and look and some things gaining on it this isn’t it still not at so wouldn’t be surprised to see the week start with an immediate pull back because all three major indexes are at a 68 or derivative and q’s being the only one that’s really exceeding its and then only very late in the day and higher objections to play and higher closes are now at standing that would so we’re going to recover we’re still going to be today or in that regard the last time this happened so so then see price went out against that contact renette contacts against that negativity is really the only indicator that you ever need in the bigger picture between that and following trends making sure that longer-term you’re not short something that’s in an uptrend or getting aggressively invest in something that’s get to break its downtrend those are the bigger picture tools and those bigger picture tools are telling us we haven’t yet talked or if this is part of the top it still has our highs to come which doesn’t tell us what’s going to happen Monday it tells us how to react to the possibilities on Monday any questions about any of that let me know otherwise let’s get into stocks