Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Signals for ES on Jun 2, 2017
Friday’s post-open surge recovered to touch a 2433.25 buy signal, but not trigger it. Its reaction down tested and teased at the 2429.25 sell signal, but never by enough at an appropriate time to suggest its sponsorship was strong-handed. By default, a rally had become increasingly likely. Its objectives were met into and during the noon hour, before the afternoon ranged sideways into the weekend.
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Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2440.75 | 2440.00 |
| …would target | 2447.00 | 2446.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2434.25 | 2433.50 |
| …would target | 2429.00 | 2428.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report retraced all of Thursday night’s extension of Wednesday afternoon’s rally. But only all of it, back down to its 2428.75 low. Post-open action held its test, too, remaining in the orbit of the 2437.25 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.” The overnight high was attacked to within 1 tick during the afternoon bias environment. Probing it into the position-squaring window attacked 2440.00, before settling back down under 2436.00.
The second consecutive close above 2424.25 puts into play 2447.50 and potentially 2455.25. Also, new trend extreme closes on Fridays all but require an eventual new extreme close. So, reversing down immediately on Monday would be likely to recover at some point. Reversing down would have room down to 2421.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us in the morning at 9:30 ET for the Saturday Review. Links will be sent overnight.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The Employment Situation report triggered a modest gap up that probed above 1.1255 but didn’t extend higher intraday. This threatens the outstanding deeper corrective dip potential, but only if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a surge that filled the gap back to Wednesday’s 1275.00 close as was required. The test extended higher to attack 1282.00, which was not required. The failed Ascending Triangle pattern can’t afford any further hesitation to resolve down under 1268.50, instead of extending to 1296.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back up Friday filled the gap from Wednesday’s close, although that wasn’t necessary. Not reversing down immediately through Monday’s close could instead extend higher to 17.90.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having rested Thursday, Friday was required to resume the rally still targeting 154-02. It was probed by more than 1 point, closing higher. No unfinished business above remains outstanding, but this is not a topping pattern capable of anything more bearish than a corrective dip.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday bounce to “kiss” Wednesday’s 48.20 sell signal resolved down overnight to 46.75, but mostly firmed intraday. The three-day sequence creates a setup that could form a durable bottom if a fresh low on Monday were to close positive.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having fulfilled the third lower close required by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, Friday only ranged narrowly at lows. The pattern is still not forming a bottom, or any less likely to probe fresh lows.