Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2417.00 | 2415.75 |
| …would target | 2422.50 | 2421.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2410.50 | 2409.25 |
| …would target | 2405.25 | 2404.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Second Bites?
Pre-open dip recovers. Emphasis on “pre-open.”
The overnight dip had retested yesterday’s noon hour low down to its 2410.00 objective. And then lower to 2408.00. Natural support at Thursday’s 2408.50 opening print was leveraged by both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverging positively.
The reaction recovered back into yesterday afternoon’s range up to 2413.50. The open’s bobble recovered to attack the 2415.75 bias-up signal within 1 tick. It didn’t trigger, so this is a no-bias environment.
The bias-up signal attack was a little late and a little short, so an offsetting test of the 2404.00 bias-down signal isn’t in-play. Not officially. Not very much unofficially, either, this being a Friday and sponsorship becoming less interested.
But the overnight dip is vulnerable to being retested so long as momentum hasn’t actually reversed up. Which it hasn’t. And overnight action never qualifies as the only bite at the apple. So, almost any break lower would likely probe fresh lows, like this morning’s bias-down signal or lower.
Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment trending up could extend into the afternoon. Don’t forget about the Friday Factors, which can extend a trending effort or fresh session extreme beyond usual constraints.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No takers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens Friday. The chaRTroom WILL be open. I’ll likely update before the final hour.
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s rally from its 2402.25 close had produced a “new Globex trend extreme” at 2412.50. Opening Thursday at 2408.50 wasted no time extending higher to retest the overnight high. No time was wasted from there before fulfilling the longstanding 2415.00 target up to 2416.50. Its reaction down into the noon hour’s low attacked 2410.00, and the balance of the session attacked the morning’s high. Despite gapping up and trending higher, the rally gained no traction for the effort. Which is why a spike-up attacking 2418.00 into the position-squaring window’s exit was retraced entirely into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The retracement of Thursday’s late spike-up extended gradually. Thursday’s noon hour attack on 2410.00 was itself attacked. A 5-point surge through Europe’s opens touched this morning’s 2415.75 bias-up signal, and has been retraced to touch 2410.00.
If, then…
Yesterday’s noon hour dip had targeted at least 2410.00, but the delay in testing it makes it unlikely to be very supportive now. And without gapping up above the longstanding 2415.00 target fulfilled yesterday, the pattern is more vulnerable to reversing down — whether backing-and-filling to Wednesday’s close and “lower prior highs” at 2401.00-2404.00, or correcting. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2412.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2415.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2406.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2404.00 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour quick reminder that I am away from the screens today chart room is open it’ll be open all day long obviously we’ve got the Morning by its parameters they were published after yesterday’s clothes as usual and I should be able to update those I’m not sure how close to 10:15 but reasonably and hopefully it’ll be an obvious signal I’m not sure about a morning update Post open update I will try I hope to get that in and don’t count on a p.m. by the afternoon by signal that just may not be possible but if it is at all possible I will do it and I’m pretty sure that I’ll have something an hour before the clothes not entirely positive but positive positive attitude toward anyway no Market rap record something later tonight and send it out right up and do the right up and all that but there’s no training tomorrow so no rush no Saturday review of course it’s a week and holiday weekend that is and being a holiday weekend of course nothing on Monday because Memorial Day in the US but the chart room I believe will be open Sunday night as normal es trades Monday through noon sent to 1 Eastern 115 and then back to normal then it opens again Tuesday or Monday night normally and see you again Tuesday alright as far as today not entirely on your own I think we can see what is going on here longstanding ties and also scanning 2415 Target trying with all its might to extend higher yeah maybe chipping away at its resistance if it’s retarded is her tested overnight right up to 1575 which is this morning’s bias up signal it was yesterday afternoon to buy a signal if that is not going to break her then we’re looking at backing and filling advance notice if we do down and down and down there will be this Gap up yesterday that wants to be retested from Below weather that’s from just filling the gap testing lower price of 2404 filling the Gap back to Wednesday’s closed centrally for 225 2401 some more lower prize weather that’s from deeper correction the Gap back to yesterday’s open will want to be were tested From Below eventually so just a little bit of a dip here and this would be the most pattern for today forever would be deeply enough to touch or deeper at least as well to confirm that this was topping let alone a closed under 12 47 to signal that momentum in Traverse Town and so breaking higher now to 1267 1267 + which puts us above the higher priorities it we’re being tested up to 12 6150 which puts us now attacking the upper end of that range that contains the higher Pryor lives testing the upper end of that range from Below so there’s one opportunity here to end the rally and if the rally doesn’t end here it’s in another up like that one opportunity to end the rally here hold the test of the upper end of this range here’s that hire parallel that was tested retest and held now testing the upper end of that range closing above that upper end says highs will be retested that’s the reward basically for these buyers to return to the Heights consequence a consequence to holding a test of the upper end and then closing back under the lower end back under the lower Pryor Pryor Lowe’s at that point lower high 6150 the consequence would be to stretch this rubber band to snap back down so that’s the Berenstain Ariane gold is to close basically today back under 6150 and we haven’t traded yet high enough to test the upper end which is closing under 6150 would be bearish and meanwhile silver is up as well it out it had been outperforming gold gold kind of playing catch-up but still trading higher as high as 1732 coming into this resistance if this is not maintained this consolidation that was developing if that’s not maintained through today’s clothes then the next time jective is 1790 so really we give every benefit of the doubt any clothes Above This range is still subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close on Monday silver will be training Monday your long Bond other than two Trapp shorts there’s no bullets reason to further delay resuming the rally this is getting a little bit heavy the rally that has an objective filling the Gap back to the Hyatt 155 13 sew up a little bit overnight still short of the upper end which needs to break car brake are aggressively I’m all the different Catalyst for bonds to break higher aggressively today stocks crashing or collapsing or sliding sharply or broadly would be one of those hotels like 4 but would be one of those catalysts just saying crude oil looks like it’s on Wednesday so this is one of the is today would confirm that the trend has reverse down it’s not for lack of trying but notice that price action is forming an inverted Head and Shoulders here so it’s going to be doubly impressive for sellers to produce a second cuz they could lower close today especially now with that lower level overnight but that lower low overnight is not in itself predictive of closing lower and if that lower level overnight doesn’t produce a little close today that’s just one more reason to anticipate at least a corrective bounce and then Natural Gas flirting around this is July which 330 equates to the 321 cell signal I’m going cell signal where I’m going low and in any case it have been tested and retested ririri tested again to the lowest levels in weeks yesterday there is no other participation by me in the chart room today not with any reliability reliable time so I will when possible if you have questions post them and I will respond when again when possible you already taking off for the weekend have a nice one thank you so much for being here good luck today .
Signals for ES on May 25, 2017
Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC rally was likely to produce a long-awaited test of my 2415.00 target. That high-confidence outlook encouraged confidence in an early trigger at 2408.75 that extended almost 8 points before the morning’s timing window began lapsing. The balance of the session essentially ranged sideways as the target was digested.
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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2417.00 | 2415.75 |
| …would target | 2422.50 | 2421.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2405.25 | 2404.00 |
| …would target | 2400.25 | 2399.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.