Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens Friday. The chaRTroom WILL be open. Morning Market Tour and bias parameters WILL be available. I’ll try to update before the final hour.
Thursday’s pullback from the 2416.50 morning high was relatively deep, attacking 2410.00. The balance of the session recovered back to the morning’s high, without gaining traction for the effort. That didn’t prevent a last-minute 3-point surge attacking 2418.00, only maintaining it. The surge reacted down 5 points through the close, as quickly as it had developed.
Now 2415.00 has been fulfilled, and held as resistance. The rally gained no traction. And a gap is outstanding back down to Wednesday’s close. Friday morning is more vulnerable to a catalyst than was Thursday afternoon, so trending higher can’t be discounted. Otherwise, backing-and-filling down to 2404.00 or 2401.00 is likely. Actually trending down into the weekend would be difficult without already being obvious during the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-higher firming Thursday stopped short of 1.1255 resistance which must hold to maintain the topping pattern that is targeting gaps below at 1.1115 and 1.1000.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Totally avoiding 1252.00 Thursday spent the entire session fluctuating around 1256.00, not signaling the current range’s resolution either way.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s ranging remained with the recent range, above last week’s prior highs, but still neither resuming the rally, nor rejecting it.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher Thursday isn’t optimal for the pattern that otherwise has no bullish excuse to further delay resuming its rally.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally’s minimum objective had been met already. Gapping down Thursday to test 50.70 held well above the 50.08 overnight low that was triggered by OPEC news. Bouncing filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, neutralizing its attraction, and resolving down to fresh lows at 48.75. Closing under 49.25 and not recovering 49.75 would start to signal the trend reversing back down.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which trades at a 9-cent premium to Jun] Wednesday’s recovery back up to 3.30 was followed by Thursday’s gap up, which immediately began reversing down through to the lowest levels in weeks at 3.24. Fresh lows under 3.20 remain in-play.
Mid-day Update… Made. Not yet breaking.
Long-standing target met, still testing.
The 2415.00 renewed bias-up target was met this morning up to 2416.50. It was never probed higher than its first 3 minutes. And only one 1-minute bar is both detached from it and also printing a fresh high.
RSIs had diverged negatively along the way up, and again at the high. Price action since then has been under pressure. Dipping into the noon hour attacked 2410.00, where the first negative divergence had developed.
Bouncing into the noon hour’s exit attacked this afternoon’s 2415.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. It didn’t trigger. Consolidating back down to 2412.50 is threatening to launch an afternoon downleg, which almost any lower would trigger.
Otherwise, back above 2415.00 would start to signal the rally is extending. That’s still unlikely, if only because it’s difficult to attract reinforcements with the weekend looming — let alone a 3-day weekend. Tomorrow would be more vulnerable to a short-squeeze, but today still has some luxury of time allowing buyers to be patient.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is busy, high-profile, and reliable for influencing price action. More so, the reaction to a pre-open report like Durable Goods will likely repeat in reaction to a post-open report like Consumer Sentiment. Afternoon activity may become subdued ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.
Robert Kaplan Speaks
Thu 6:00 PM ET
James Bullard Speaks
Thu 10:00 PM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
John Williams speaks on Sunday
8:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2417.00 | 2415.75 |
| …would target | 2422.50 | 2421.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2410.75 | 2409.50 |
| …would target | 2405.00 | 2403.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.