Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Up-ending.
Quick rally retests the high.
If the gap up were going to extend, it was going to extend quickly. That was the Market Tour’s expectation, and the reason for being inclined to get long early.
In fact, gapping up above 2392.00 extended immediately and relentlessly until touching last week’s 2400.00 high.
Hesitation at 2400.00 is probably only obligatory. Although 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively, 3-minute RSI is persistently overbought, which often produces at least one more fresh high print.
That’s one more fresh high print for this leg, but probably not ultimately. The prior high’s retest should visit 2405.00, and probably also 2415.00 to compensate for the delay.
A new high close remains outstanding as ‘unfinished business above.” Even the open’s relentless surge doesn’t ensure closing higher today, so we’ll continue monitoring for a possible short-entry.
chaRTroom link
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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Starting on an up note.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[NOTE THE LOGIN URL HAS CHANGED]
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down was a small price to pay for Thursday’s recovery having stopped short of recovering a prior high. Overnight action had retraced a healthy 61.8% of Thursday’s recovery. Friday morning retested that retracement low. Neither test was able to launch an intraday rally, as the balance of the session ranged sideways. Despite overnight action having suggested Friday would resolve strongly in one direction, Thursday’s recovery was duplicated by not recovering a prior high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Trending up relentlessly had added 6 points into Europe’s opens. Double-topping there had soon retraced all of it. Plunging to the Double Top’s 261.8% extension was interrupted by a Running Correction. The pattern often retraces at least the Running Correction’s upper-quadrant, which this one is now doing, having bounced up to 2392.00.
If, then…
Failing to recover a prior high does leave the following session vulnerable to downside. However much and for however long depends on other factors — Friday could have fallen into a deeper hole, and so could Monday. That downside vulnerability from one session’s close can become irrelevant by the next session’s open gapping up above a prior high, and extending. That’s at least 2393.00 from Thursday which was probed overnight, and preferably 2396.50 from Wednesday which was not probed. Not even close. Extending higher anyway would target a retest of last Sunday night’s 2403.00 high by 2 points, and higher. At least one more new high close remains outstanding as “unfinished business above.” But breaking back under Friday’s 2384.25 lows would target 2375.00 and lower.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above2392.00 would be likely to trigger the 2390.75 bias-up signal at 10:51. Exiting the open under 2388.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday getting a little late start will Adobe software matter issue soon as I’ve been resolved hey wait there maybe there’s a new login for the chart room for the daily chart room noticed that it changes randomly and also that the layout maybe a little different if it is if you notice anything please let me know it’s not supposed to be let me know quickly because Friday and that is Thursday which gap down pretty substantial Trend in the morning or even before the I had completed and it was returned back to the open but not back above a prior hi so consequence of that is buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort and didn’t have to be a problem gapping up above the prior high above any prior high on Friday would have indicated that but Friday didn’t Friday gap down again was vulnerable Really Got Away easy cuz it could have turned it down and broke and lower because again buyers hadn’t gained traction for the reference all the energy they had expended Thursday now we have the same issue it’s a different looks different because exacerbated move Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon but it’s the same thing structurally and a lot of time discussing in this instance and that is that Friday gap down and it recovered the only back to the open not above her prior so once again even in this shallow Friday salinus there’s still the bone ability to resuming their Climb Every break under Friday’s low but basically 2385 8425 was tested overnight and then retested intraday it was a 61 8 retrievement Thursday’s recovery if we break that this morning then we resume or at least x 10 to the climb to 2375 maybe 2370 however if we got then we can but there’s more reliable rejection of the downside forget the vulnerability at least and look up we’re not indicated to do that right now open above Thursday’s I-93 or even the prior High which would be helpful as well 97-90 actually 6 area we can still end up at the end is trending up will give it every benefit of the doubt your time at least for not being vulnerable to a person that will give it the benefit of the doubt they can extend our and there is a pattern play that allow that to happen but it can’t stop here and it’s that he was the overnight action last night Trend it up end of Europe’s opens double top there at least one minute all right side of her negatively and then really slick out of that plunged out of that almost a little running correction in here and then plunged out of that are relevant to this connected to 6180 extension of the double top that’s a common objective but common report if it’s tested did bounce to the upper quadrant of this running correction and now the markets making a decision either it extends that it which case it’s minimum objective is the origin of the plan which is 9450 which is back above Thursday’s has which is then likely to extend Tire so above 92 pre-open really I’ll explain why the moment could Target resuming the new highs 2405 Exedra otherwise if this bounce holds the quadrant supper and are the upper quadrant that is running correction probably know that because it starts breaking back under 2390 or lower then it’s just it’s as if it didn’t happen or doesn’t matter that it happened overnight instead were back to the effects of not like Thursday and Friday but the vulnerability of it gets very much and play all right so why is it that has to happen before the open preferably not the open because there’s too much room to cover too much ground to make up for from too low if it’s not yet happening until the open and the open remember it in 15 minutes about sylheti is when the overnight at action influences the intraday or where the influences from overnight like an overnight pattern like this can be influential in today so if it’s not already happening to the 15 minutes we’re not really if not even be open it’s because the phone ability to the downside is extending its 9:20 by signal that was triggered on Friday it’s been to 109 that’s all right has been to 990 so that’s the objective may not even get a chance to confirm or if it does not didn’t do any damage to the Chart but now pound as well and then they are on the Earth right now influence and I 152 you can see the weakness little bit overnight camping down but really ask to break under 329 3:30 to Signal momentum forcing them all right here and if there’s any questions I will see you in the chart room before the open okay everyone good luck today .
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2393.50 | 2390.75 |
| …would target | 2399.25 | 2396.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2388.50 | 2385.75 |
| …would target | 2384.00 | 2380.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s session exemplified the consequences of not recovering a prior high, as Thursday’s recovery had failed to do. The overnight slide was a healthy 61.8% correction of Thursday’s recovery. And it reacted up to within 1 point of Thursday’s highs. But it was retraced entirely back down to the overnight low.
The healthy correction was still that, but there was less to show for it. Or more. There was less to show for the intraday correction, because its recovery effort stopped short of the overnight high. Perhaps it was healthier, anyway, since the alternative was avoided — the session only ranged sideways.
Overnight action had suggested Friday would resolve in one direction, or the other. It didn’t, and it didn’t. Choppiness aside, the range held. The week’s lowest close was still within the range. Holding the range also means sellers didn’t retake control. There remains potential for retesting last Sunday night’s 2403.00 high by 2 points, and higher. And there remains outstanding at least one more new high close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
There’s NO Saturday Review on holiday weekends (Happy Mother’s Day!). The chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night with Globex trading here.