Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging at Friday’s open triggered the 1.0920 buy signal, which was extended intraday. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the gap back to the prior Friday’s close and probably also a retest of 1.1025 is underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The bounce extended Friday, probing temporarily into the 1228.00-1236.00 range. Closing within it would all but ensure testing its upper-end. Otherwise, another downdraft to the 1206.11-1211.00 target is imminent.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight tested prior highs that had preceded the recent break lower. Closing any higher Monday would all but invalidate the attraction to 15.95, at least in the near-term.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Friday morning through 151-02 touched the decline’s original 151-22 target. Closing any higher would signal momentum reversing up, but backing-and-filling first wouldn’t be surprising in even the most bullish scenario.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly Friday didn’t extend to the 48.85 target, but also didn’t reject the 47.65 recovery. There’s no assurance of actually extending the rally until closing above 48.85.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday morning extended the rally up to the lower-end of the 3.42-3.45 target area. There is potential to one more higher close, but no higher so long as 3.45 holds as resistance.
Mid-day Update… Chop, check. Trend?
Distinctly separate gyrations in a narrow range don’t qualify.
The pre-open bounce up to 2391.50 had reversed into and out of the open. It extended to touch the 2384.25 overnight low. Reversing up from there touched the open’s 2389.75 high. That’s enough to qualify the action as being choppy, even without then retracing back down through the noon hour.
The noon hour’s retracement stopped 2 ticks short of touching this afternoon’s 2385.50 bias-down signal. This is a no-bias environment. Testing 2385.50 should define the environment’s lower-end.
More than a half-hour remains in the bias environment, and just drifting higher has room up to the 2391.75 bias-up signal. Back above 2388.00 would suggest that’s underway. And it had better be underway soon, or else risk new sellers exiting the bias environment in a break to new lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Fed survey may be high-profile, but it is not from the only one with a track record for influencing price action. Still, any price reaction to it will likely be repeated in reaction to the post-open housing sector report.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2394.50 | 2391.75 |
| …would target | 2399.75 | 2397.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2388.25 | 2385.50 |
| …would target | 2383.00 | 2380.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No room, no time.
Post-open dip pushes rally into a corner.
The overnight drop to 2384.25 had retraced exactly 61.8 o% of yesterday’s recovery. That’s constructive, and in fact it reacted up 7 points to 2391.50 before the open.
Dipping into and out of the open tested 2386.75. And tested it, and retested it. The 2386.25 bias-down signal was never touched before triggering no-bias. So, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal is not in-play.
Breaking lower to 2384.75 before 10:30 was too late to trigger bias-down, but it did invalidate the no-bias. Back above 2387.50 would be credible for launching a rally back up to the 2391.50 pre-open high. The morning may simply maintain the range, but a fresh low back under 2384.25 would open the door to new lows for the week — and close the door to new highs.