Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back-to-backing-and-filling.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s reaction down from satisfying 2397.00 had extended pre-open to touch 2388.00. Bouncing into and out of the open soon failed and resumed sliding, more steeply and more substantially to 2379.00. RSIs diverging positively at 10:30 exploited a renewed bias-down target having been met already. Exiting the bias environment testing 2386.00 was extended through the afternoon to retest the morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal as resistance. Probing it by 6 ticks failed to close above it as the balance of the session ranged sideways .
Overnight action’s new info…
Deja vu all over again, as Wednesday night’s pattern is being duplicated by a single-minded one-way relentless decline. It also shares the similarity of being contained within yesterday’s range. So far. One slight difference is that last night’s 2384.25 low is trying to hold the 61.8% retracement from the prior morning’s lows, while Wednesday night’s dip was a little further along by now. And now a bounce is testing 2387.50.
If, then…
Welcome to day-5 of awaiting a retest of Sunday night’s 2403.00 high, at least up to 2405.00 and probably up to 2415.00. Okay, yesterday can’t be characterized as “hovering.” It did recover to close back in the prior range above its lows — but above only them, and not above a prior high. That was a shortfall of Wednesday’s intraday recovery, too. But the high’s retest and probe remaining likely near-term so long as Friday’s open isn’t rejecting Thursday’s recovery. The overnight 61.8% almost does that, which would make 2375.00 and lower likely, instead.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2382.75 would be likely to trigger the 2386.25 bias-down signal at 10:15, and very vulnerable also to renewing the bias-down signal under 2380.00. Exiting the open above 2390.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Friday type of Friday’s Market or time Friday’s close so let’s stay at it don’t forget we’ve got a we’ve got no Saturday review this weekend though Saturday review it’s a holiday weekend in the US it is Mother’s Day happy Mother’s Day in advance so no Saturday review this weekend any questions any procedure core methodological or stock chart questions please come on in post them during the day we’ll get to know what’s going on here you know how similar setup so it appears sequentially sell them resolved similarly but here is last night’s drop single-minded one-way relentless what’s ignore this for a moment it actually hasn’t changed that description replacement of the intraday rally here is Tuesday night or Wednesday night is Wednesday nights drop single-minded relentless one-way relentless ignore that but it actually doesn’t change characterization either in fact Let’s ignore everything under here because the equivalent two timing wise between the two so far at least is that last night as retraced a very constructive healthy 61.8% pulled back yesterday’s recovery this was a little bit further along by the same time the shower or two but little further along by the same time if these are similar setup said they’re not going to resolve similarly then there are two choices here what is that there won’t be any Post open drop or is a corollary there won’t be any steep Post open drop and likely it’ll be retraced recovered if not actually reversed and probably reversed the other dissimilarity would be that rather than Plunge and or rather actually rather than being only temporary that opposed open drop plunger not won’t recover so it’s because of this that we’re not looking for a flat Friday Friday factors can have one of two effects one of those effects often it is that the impending you look today paralyzes participants in into a range maybe into nothing often and often in the afternoon and that still a possibility of course but it’s because of the similarity disability rule mine not expecting that not expecting to be still stand still we are still hiring in the range and no this isn’t actually hovering when we get a big plunge like that but we are still in the range thanks the essays close it could have been better but yesterday’s clothes had recovered back above Wednesday Tuesday Mondays was back within the range The Head and Shoulders here break one way and then recover more substantial the opposite direction we’re not into it more substantial but the opposite direction and Alton part of the because this didn’t recover a prior Hut did we cover both the prayer list so we are still in the orbit on Sunday nights High likely to be retested that’s still likely be retested likely to be retested to 2405 and probably 2415 and possibly today if recovery can get underway here we are now Friday Factor as I say can cut either way and I don’t mean either up or down I mean either it restricts or inhibits or constrains trending and today’s instance I expected to exacerbate it look at other markets real quickly really late on this I’m really not going to pound weaker back to you but still not required to but likely to provide reactions credible Looney tried to do this and shoulders and went out back and its neck line so kind of a warning shot at this point so long as the warning shot slow isn’t exceeded subsequently which it hasn’t been as of yet in the Euros pull back went all the way to its potential it didn’t have to but that’s irrelevant anyway until 1 or 920 is recovered to put into play filling the gap maybe the retesting 11025 it was tested overnight Sunday night gold found you again and Bounds even higher bouncing back into order to test the lower end of the 12 28 12 36 range that kind of affair of this kind of pattern It’s Not Unusual for that despite we can you get outstanding that is ultimately were tested Not Unusual for that anyway to extend are we need to start tracking away your Rising white here and we do include the low and that so back into this range very easily gets to the range is upper end and maybe even over throws it more substantially despite 1206 1211 being outstanding as below as well got to break this up trending support and its last touch at 12:19. To resume to decline silver a slightly different pattern I just a little choppy but nevertheless still proving higher and higher there’s when there’s a Tuesday night but Wednesday night sounds Thursday nights Tilly’s clothes under 16 22 despite the last night 1622 still need is still a Line in the Sand until closing under 16 to 1595 potential the bottom and here first step recovery 150 102 the clothes trying it touching it doesn’t do it probably get your day doesn’t do it crude oil not really 4885 and then Natural Gas reaction so probably not going to be able to 3:40 to 3:40 alright .
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2396.75 | 2394.25 |
| …would target | 2403.50 | 2400.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2389.75 | 2386.25 |
| …would target | 2383.50 | 2380.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, BROKE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Retesting Sunday night’s 2403.00 high, at least up to 2405.00 and probably up to 2415.00, had relied on holding this week’s lows as support. At least, retesting the highs without first dipping to 2375.00 or lower. This week’s lows broke sharply down to 2379.00 as the morning’s bias environment was entered. It held a retest while RSIs diverged positively. And it was reversed relentlessly through the afternoon bias environment’s exit.
The open’s gap down had touched 2392.25 before plunging through the morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal. The intraday recovery touched 2393.25 into the afternoon bias environment lapsing. The balance of the session ranged around 2391.75.
Decisively recovering 2391.75 would have been more bullish. Decisively recovering it upon entering the bias environment would have been even more bullish. Closing back above the week’s prior lows was the least bullish bullishness, remaining in the orbit of Sunday night’s highs. The high’s retest and probe remaining likely near-term so long as Friday’s open isn’t rejecting Thursday’s recovery.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially dipping at Thursday’s open had barely touched the 1.0865 pullback potential before reversing up into positive territory. The dip wasn’t deep, so reversing wasn’t any great feat. It’s more relevant for having neutralize the potential attraction. Still closing above 1.0920 is needed to signal a retest of 1.1025 underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another overnight bounce probed Tuesday night’s high,but without reacting down through Thursday morning. This undermines the momentum of Tuesday’s breakdown, and allows for a bigger bounce to retest the upper-end of 1228.00-1236.00, but the gap outstanding to Monday’s close will require being filled.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A bigger bounce Thursday than before Wednesday’s open was not rejected Thursday. The 15.95 target remains outstanding, regardless. But its test can be delayed if not already back in-play Friday morning.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing a fresh low overnight was recovered at least to fluctuate around Tuesday and Wednesday’s closes. The fresh low close keeps intact the ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs, needing to recover 151-02 to even begin signaling momentum reversing up.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Gapping up slightly Thursday eventually extended to fresh highs at 48.22, now capable of extending the rally so long as 47.65 holds as support. Otherwise, backing-and-filling would be likely.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already gapping up ahead of Thursday’s EIA report reacted favorably, probing above Wednesday’s high. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the next higher objective is 3.42-3.45.
Mid-day Update… Close. So, half a cigar?
Noon hour bounce retraces much of the morning’s plunge.
The open’s 13-point plunge from 2392.00 was retraced to 2390.00 coming out of the noon hour. That triggered the 2388.00 bias-up signal. Already recovering 2383.50 and 2386.00 had suggested the downside momentum had lapsed.
But this morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal must still be recovered through a relevant window to signal momentum reversing up. So, testing the 2394.25 bias-up target could be bullish, unless its test were reversed back under 2391.75 when the bias environment is lapsing.
Currently, the pre-1:20 high is now being probed, which helps greatly to ensure the bias-up target will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. There is meanwhile room to test 2386.00 as support before suggesting momentum may be reversing down.