Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… No-bias holding.
Bias-down signal’s test holding. Holding…
Gapping down 2-3 points immediately tested this morning’s 2391.00 bias-down signal. The first half-hour tested the bias-down signal. A fresh post-open high up to 2393.25 at 10:15 was still retraced to test 2391.00. And that test probed a fresh post-open low down to 2389.25, right up to 10:30. But that bar also touched the bias-down signal.
So, this is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2397.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2389.25 would at least suggest a deeper detour underway. But back above 2392.50 should launch an upleg that trades the overnight range for a retest of yesterday’s opening range.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Lying in wait.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up extended its overnight rally to 2400.00, but not until after the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed. Having started both late enough and early enough, the overnight rally’s sponsorship was neither tired nor weak-handed. Its post-open extension failed, anyway, despite the outstanding attraction to higher highs. The balance of the session trended back down to probe 1 point under Monday’s 2389.75 low. Which reacted up 4 points before the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce was soon retraced to a lower low at 2387.50. A narrow 3-point range was briefly interrupted by a surge to 2392.00 at Europe’s opens. That was soon retraced back down to the overnight low, bouncing again back into the earlier narrow overnight range.
If, then…
The characteristics of Monday’s overnight rally usually don’t fail extending higher intraday, like yesterday’s reversal down. The alternative is usually its gap up becoming an anchor that attracts the reversal back up to it. And the alternative to recovering would be signaled by failing to hold a test of the reversal’s low. And Monday-Tuesday’s 2388.75-2389.75 lows are still being tested as this morning’s open approaches. Yesterday’s intraday decline expended 11 points of selling pressure through multiple timing windows from the range’s high, only to hold a test of the range’s low. That “ineffectual pessimism” is in addition to still hovering pessimistically short of the highs, still keeping the door open to probing new highs more overtly. But breaking lower at Wednesday’s open would still be credible for extending much more substantially intraday.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2388.00 would be likely to trigger the 2391.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2394.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
pretty good morning it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or not a lot to report overnight which is the thing to report because yesterday’s drop Post open drop little bit of a phone through it and that’s significant for identifying an anchor we’ll talk about that moment but yesterday’s basically session one drop down trim those lower hives even though we didn’t drop the entire session is a moment bouncing into the close it was still an ongoing series of lows and kicked off by an anchor from having gapped up all that sun pressure expended look at this on the intraday all that selling pressure expended yesterday just to go from the upper end of the range the upper end of the range actually being better to find by Sunday night time or Fridays close for that matter 2399 but good for the upper end of that range to the lower end of the range there is Monday’s low probing it holding its probe elite pro but that flushed out great signal at the low but anyway yeah all that sewing pressure could be expended gapping up extending hire through the open that first of all creates extra room to expend sewing pressure before it even starts damaging the chart or tried to and it doesn’t get damaged just by reversing into negative territory and then spending or absorbing all that so I’m pressure just too close it’s really unchanged but back within prayer time in Windows so that the bullets premise is that we’ve got an anchor up here having outlasted the open having maintain the Gap up and probe higher even though it wasn’t productive itself which usually is the case based on how that overnight really developed but the alternative is if it’s not going to it at least create an anchor or magnetic attraction to keep the reaction down however long it may extend or deep an extender for have a long keep your temper and so here’s the first opportunity to prove that say temporary reaction down that door remains open by having all the test of Monday’s low if Monday’s load doesn’t hold its test or if the lower end of this range now defined by yesterday’s love doesn’t hold through the open today is not holding there’s room below and it begins under 86 which there’s really no bullets reason whatsoever to touch again maybe overnight can be dismissed or a knee-jerk reaction to something intraday that recovers immediately but as far as trending down to touch 86 no reason for that other than to break 86 and breaking 86 guess it’s much deeper down into previous Lowe’s still though like we temporarily at this point likely likely or at least temporary can be different as far as long as we’re still holding those still holding these lows through the open preferably though by the time we already because last night yesterday’s Monday’s load point and basically range sideways there there’s open still raining sideways around Monday and Tuesdays if that’s covering pessimistically short of Sunday night time which doesn’t require retest other than calculable a there’s nothing structurally like everybody is I need to try to clean out of that requires a retest other than Friday’s new trend I close that still at some Future Point needs a nother Trend I close so you can see why it’s so early but I wouldn’t take them in this pattern isn’t already rulers or more substantial so are we taking control at the probing lower under 88 today’s open that puts all right there there’s no there’s a chance the lower end of this the previous range other markets continued yes a wee touch the next load of jacked it was never really put into play Just room down to the 150 22 held it was propelled into the clothes so as long as there’s no second consecutive lower close today there’s not a break out there is it’s so on the cusp ear yesterday’s clothes being a break out itself it was still testing prior today low for was certainly in Fresno close so it’s so on the border line I’m just not rushing to buy this in the event that there is a third load of clothes at least gotta be fresh clothes anyway so to see this bounce then back into positive territory or back to the chiropractor Lil that’s a candidate for resistance that pushes price back down but meanwhile you know there’s room up to 151 2628 just as a corrective belt still being likely to reverse back down to at least test or vulnerable to it at least crude oil trying to resist an opportunity to extend re-test Sunday nights on the 47 area yesterday just dip API released it last night he is is today this is not that’s really position of strength but that’s actually a longer to run out bottom for range for me that ultimately holds that it’s a better bottom but we can’t draw that conclusion yet and we can’t dismiss the potential for probing a fresh probably only temporarily would be helpful to forming a bottom optimism just keep springing alive and natural gas when there’s a couple signals outstanding that basically require a new low if not a little close back above 327 tables that lower jective but otherwise he is reported tomorrow alright anything any questions go to the chart room and I will see you there before the open meanwhile good luck today .
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2400.75 | 2397.00 |
| …would target | 2406.75 | 2403.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2394.75 | 2391.00 |
| …would target | 2389.75 | 2386.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday gapped up thanks to an overnight rally. That rally had begun late enough to have been single-minded and relentless and prone to the open reversing. And that rally had begun early enough not to have been the product of weak-handed latecomers that patient sellers the open often easily absorbs. It was the Goldilocks rally. It was just right.
Which was wrong.
The gap to 2397.75 didn’t extend immediately. Not until after the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed, when it surged to 2400.00 into the top of the hour. And held. The morning’s bias environment then slid to unchanged. The noon hour slid, too, probing negative territory, which the last half hour’s slide probed 1 point under Monday’s 2389.75 low.
That’s 11 points intraday high to low. A lot of selling pressure to expend through multiple timing windows, just to travel from one end of the range to the other. Sunday night’s open wasn’t the most inflated balloon, and its reaction down has been relatively shallow. Now a lot of ballast has been dumped.
Breaking lower at Wednesday’s open or overnight would still be credible for extending much more substantially intraday. Otherwise, could new highs finally extend Wednesday?
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s lower lows approached the pullback’s potential to 1.0865. Almost any initial strength Wednesday would be likelier to fill the gap back up to Friday’s close.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight resumed the decline Tuesday, still targeting fresh lows at 1206.00-1211.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Breaking lower overnight gapped down Tuesday to resume the decline that is still targeting 15.95.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s close was still overlapping prior intraday lows to confirm that sellers aren’t strong-handed, but not that buyers aren’t patient and awaiting the next lower objective at 150-22 before recovering. Fresh lows overnight did extend down to 150-19. So, closing above 150-22 Tuesday and not confirming with a second consecutive lower close Wednesday would be in-line with a bottom beginning to form.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength had attacked Sunday night’s ~47.00 high before Tuesday’s open. Intraday action only ranged narrowly sideways ahead of the post-close API report, and Wednesday morning’s EIA.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight continued to reflect optimism, probably ineffectual, although it was relatively large up to 3.24. Back above 3.27 would undermine the outstanding objective of probing under 3.11.