Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Easy as 1, 2, 4.
Fresh highs retrace to unchanged, and momentarily lower.
The open touched 2400.00 to probe the highest intraday highs ever — 1 point above Friday’s post-close high, 2 points above Friday’s futures close, and 4 points above Friday’s cash session close. Also, almost 4 points under Sunday night’s high, and 5 points under the minimum objective.
So close. Too close? We already know the next higher objective(s) will be extra vulnerable to completing the rally, and to reversing the trend back down. Attracting new sponsorship to reach fresh highs should be difficult at this stage, and it is. Touching 2400.00 didn’t attract buyers, at least not enough to offset the reaction down into negative territory.
Touching 2392.00 after the afternoon bias environment had begun tried to invalidate not triggering the 2393.75 bias-down signal. I’m not giving that any benefit of the doubt. A fresh low could still test 2391.00 where a recovery would still be likely. But back above 2395.75 would start suggest the pullback was already ending.
There’s still room down to 2390.00 before suggesting something bigger underway, up from 2388.00. Buyers aren’t marginalized for the day, especially so long as dips are relatively shallow, and unable to probe much into negative territory.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The Atlanta Fed report is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action. Wednesday morning’s other reports have neither characteristic. Noon’s Fed speaker also spoke Tuesday, so the market will anticipate his comments.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2403.00 | 2399.00 |
| …would target | 2403.75 | 2405.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2397.50 | 2393.75 |
| …would target | 2392.00 | 2388.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Gap up maintained and extended.
The open immediately did something that all of yesterday had failed — it touched yesterday’s 2397.75 opening peak. It was overlapped through the open, instead of reacting down like yesterday. But overlapping it also meant not extending higher. Not through the open.
So, an opportunity to establish upside momentum wasn’t exploited. At least it wasn’t rejected.
Fresh highs up to 2400.00 did something that all of the open had failed — it touched the 2399.00 pre-open high, which was also Friday’s post-close high. Not during the opening 15 minutes of volatility, but afterward.
So, its opportunity to establish upside momentum wasn’t exploited. But unlike the actual test of 2397.75, it wasn’t even attempted. That’s pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
2399.00 is still being tested one hour past the open. Sponsorship isn’t rushing in. A dip may yet be necessary, but unlikely to extend or to invalidate the bias-up. Perhaps only noise down to 2397.00. No sell signal will be considered above 2395.50.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Spittin’ distance.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s blip-up to 2403.75 and blap-down would have been justified to resume its reaction Monday morning. Which it did, throughout the entire bias environment. But bias-down didn’t trigger, and the probe under Friday’s 2396.00 cash session close was a relatively shallow 6 points. Recovering through the noon hour and afternoon bias environment stopped pessimistically short of 2396.00. A dip was recovered into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways action down to 2393.00 had narrowed into a 1-point range before Europe’s opens shook things about. A dip back down to 2393.00 has recovered to fresh highs touching yesterday’s opening peak at 2397.75.
If, then…
An intraday retest of Sunday night’s blip-up remains likely, with the minimum objective of 2405.00. Yesterday’s delay increases the likelihood of the retest’s 2415.00 objective. Not declining at or into Tuesday’s open makes that retest likely today, at least its attempt. Friday’s new trend high close still requires an eventual higher close, but not with any particular timing. It’s not currently too late for another downdraft, which could test 2388.00 before suggesting more substantial underway.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open above 2397.50 would be likely to trigger the 2396.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2392.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Market store nothing really new to report overnight other than work now seemingly getting underway to actually intraday retesting Sunday night spica really Fridays I to begin with 2399 his bike up or Tech 2400 for the objective of that test which actually is the objective testing marches hi that was put into play previously 2405 in 2015 because of the delay first couple weeks not a really big dick so buyers didn’t really go out too much and too much not defending too much might be a little more prone to exiting and less prone to throw more money into a franchise but still because of that delay and then also the hesitation yesterday just have skittish this is this rally spiking up only briefly exactly what we and then because the French results results discounted shouldn’t be the game in motion OC no roll up there we’ll set up here I mean it was an opportunity for maybe trying to form of bottom I don’t see anything in here that is trying to form of autumn I’m probing lower I think there’s some news out on the Australia overnight no requirement for close officially Fridays close was that third eventual her clothes going to confirm break up in the prior week but so shallow and still they overlap does Still Loving the confirmation sessions I so at least an intraday high rise likely if not also extending our trying to bottom you know it had an opportunity a few days ago and failed that was Thursday Friday did for him back this is the best opportunity for a bottom on the Looney it’s an inverted Head and Shoulders inverted head and shoulders and at least for a temporary recovery attempt classically it Triggers on a break about the neckline which here is 7320 + targeting at least 73 5774 1174 65 so if you look back then that puts us in a pretty good or put some Market in a pretty good position for a 61.8% retracement of this over all the clients since the cell cycle but that is an opportunity for a bottom doesn’t have to break our if it breaks lower first will be looking for an even bigger bottom the Looney indecline basically still reacting down from the election results but probably had its way with deeper pulled back overnight testing 109 or attacking when I’m and potentially on its way to testing 10868 have to happen this way there is a gap back to Fridays close it will want to be filled gold and silver both probably fresh Lowe’s overnight this is after gold yesterday really didn’t do anything I’m pretty open Post Oak reopen to Post open was largely contained within its prey 1236 range can see it proving a little bit lower so tired of it once I get to the way 1206 1211 silver proving a little over overnight it’s got a descending triangle that it’s formed targeting 15 1995 long but if it’s not going to take advantage of this bottom an opportunity what with the impatience sewing in this gap down from a violated bounce on it that was unproductive trying to get in the way anyway trying to extend out anyway then it’s next a little jacked it is 150 22 and crude oil still trying to forget me this look like are formed in the morning traversal Gap Town proviron and then test they’re prob’ly opens gap down low but this is not an uptrend and when that all develops to the morning it’s usually going to recover in the afternoon it did and now it’s got an opportunity to extend higher Sunday nights high is being attacked here that actually touch as I’m in the opportunity and then Natural Gas wants to do here it’s so can I have decided but it can’t it hasn’t but it does seem to be making up for lost time optimism is just going to kill that I just I can’t she just stay fresh while we’ve got to confirm breakout couple going on 3 weeks now old require at least eventually close is just delaying it and delaying it so what is creating a toehold up here that will help it to recover and anchor so to speak it’s just got so much optimism that has to be flushed out even in this break lower so much optimism even in delaying it now overnight it’s extension so 311 or a probe just a probing to 311 probably not going to be the end of the road here and when I bought them can start for me alright that’s good that turned around if there’s any questions them to the chart room or I will see you before the open all right good luck today .