Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2400.50 | 2396.50 |
| …would target | 2407.00 | 2403.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2393.00 | 2389.00 |
| …would target | 2387.50 | 2383.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s drop was basically an extension of the overnight reaction to having blipped-up Sunday night, which Monday’s opening blip-up essentially duplicated. Each was briefer and shallower, despite being in position to attract much wider sponsorship. Sellers weren’t taking the bait.
Sellers also failed to trigger the morning’s bias-down. Not for lack of proximity, since noN-bias triggered. Optimism remains alive, if not altogether alive and kicking. The pattern offers an opportunity to extend down anyway during the afternoon bias environment. It wasn’t done, while price hovered at the afternoon’s high, which is restrained optimism.
Recovering to retest Sunday night’s high remains likely. But a better bottom than Monday’s low will be sought at slightly lower levels, if not already underway Tuesday morning. Extending higher overnight would be credible for persisting through the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Blipping-up momentarily Sunday night in reaction to the French election both pierced the outstanding 1.1025 objective, and then reversed down sharply from it. The decline extended through Monday morning to 1.0937, leaving a gap back up to Friday’s close.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing to the 1228.00-1236.00 range’s upper-end Sunday night was resolved by dipping to its lower-end Monday morning. Already too much time has elapsed without actually rejecting the range’s test, that lower lows targeting 1206.00-1211.00 is likely.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very narrow ranging both Sunday night and Monday morning offered no new information. Except that not rejecting current lows still keeps alive the 15.95 target area.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging pre-open had stopped 5 ticks short of the 152-18 buy signal. The gap up reversed down immediately to fresh lows that attacked 151-00 at the morning’s low. Having originated from above a violated bounce limit, and gapping down, this fresh low’s origin suggests it will be retraced. But that might not prevent first testing potential to 150-22.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Piercing Friday’s high Sunday night by attacking 47.00 was retraced to gap down slightly Monday. A morning bounce into positive territory was reversed to pierce under the open’s gap down. It’s not a Pivot Reversal because it’s not appearing in an ongoing uptrend. And the morning’s low ultimately held. So a bigger bounce should be obvious with little or no delay to avoid fresh lows.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday gapped down 9 cents to last week’s 3.16-3.17 lows and extended several more cents to reject Friday’s bounce. Bouncing back to the open was the only reason Monday didn’t offer new confirmation that a new relative low close under 3.11 remains in-play.
Mid-day Update… Sellers remain subdued.
Still no signs of capitulation.
This morning’s noN-bias environment extended down to 2389.75 until the bias environment began lapsing. The trend has since reversed up, attacking the 2395.00 bias-up signal. The signal was actually touched minutes too soon to invoke the grace period. Exceeding 2395.00 through 1:30 would at least invalidate the afternoon’s no-bias signal.
Otherwise, 2395.00 should define the bias environment’s upper-end. Probing above it is possible, albeit doomed to failure for being “no-bias trending.” Backing-and-filling for an hour would be likelier, perhaps testing this morning’s low down to 2388.75.
Extending higher later remains possible, if not likely. Probing Sunday night’s high will continue to be the likely resolution unless this afternoon were to give this morning’s decline the credibility that it currently lacks.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs Opening report has great potential to disagree with Friday’s Employment Situation report which was somewhat surprising. It’s the only high-profile or influential report, apart from the afternoon Fed speaker.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
1:00 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Robert Kaplan Speaks
4:15 PM ET