Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2403.50 | 2399.50 |
| …would target | 2409.00 | 2405.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2396.25 | 2392.25 |
| …would target | 2391.00 | 2387.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Never step in front of a new extreme on Friday afternoons. It has been some time since the market had the opportunity to teach that lesson. This Friday made up for that lost time by ticking up, up, up ahead of this weekend’s Brexit vote.
Oops, I mean the French vote. Which is being approached similarly to Brexit, which was held on a weekday. Price had ticked up relentlessly through the Globex open, until the first polling station reported results for Remain that were narrower than expected. Granted, the polls aren’t nearly as tight, (or tight at all). But a win by the market’s favorite son won’t necessarily be a win for the market. Excessive optimism is difficult to satiate.
Friday’s 2396.00 cash session close was 5 points above the week’s highs. Futures closed another 3 points higher at 2399.00. Both are above March’s 2391.00 prior high close, although only futures exceeded March’s 2397.25 high close. The high’s retest is likely to visit 2405.00, if not also 2415.00. Sunday night and Monday morning will be fun.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send Saturday Review login instructions in the morning… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Continued optimism for the France’s establishment candidate winning this weekend’s vote greeted Friday probing fresh highs to attack the 1.1025 objective where there is greater vulnerability to reversing down.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight to the 1228.00-1236.00 range’s upper-end had begun already resolving down before Friday’s open, which quickly returned to the range’s lower-end. Not immediately rejecting the range’s test makes the next lower objective likely in-play at 1206.00-1211.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging overnight was resolve back down Friday to attack Thursday’s lows to within 2 cents, keeping alive the downside momentum still targeting 15.95.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially spiking up Friday to what had been the decline’s 152-08 bounce limit was reversed back down to continue fluctuating around the decline’s 151-20 target.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing Thursday at the intraday plunge’s lows which is also 45.40 support nevertheless launched another plunge overnight to 43.75, not attributed to any fundamental reason. The plunge was recovered entirely, and then probed above 46.17. Closing above it would trigger a corrective bounce targeting “higher prior lows” at 47.65.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday gapped up to and through the ongoing 3.21 sell signal and extended back into the week’s range at 3.27. Unfinished business below remains outstanding at 3.11, but there’s no bearish reason to close any higher.
Mid-day Update… All gapped up, nowhere to go.
Holding support at yesterday afternoon’s highs.
The pre-open and opening tests of 2390.75 reversed down through the first hour. Yesterday afternoon’s test of 2386.00 as resistance became this morning’s test as support. And it held. It continued holding through a noon hour test, too. Just dipping back under 2387.00 would signal momentum reversing down. It was tested by more than 1 point during the noon hour and held.
Unfinished business below from this morning at 2382.00 could be tested quickly if given another opportunity. Support at 2386.00 has been chipped away, and the next timing window’s retest would be likelier to break through it.
Speaking of which, the next timing window has arrived. The afternoon’s 2389.75 bias-up signal was touched at noon, and didn’t trigger. It’s being attacked now to within 3 ticks,and likely to define the bias environment’s upper-end if tested. This being Friday afternoon, breaking it at any time might deserve some benefit of the doubt. And a tight stop.
It wouldn’t be surprising for unfinished business below to be left behind. The afternoon may drift up in anticipation of getting the result it wants from this weekend’s French election. But the burden of proof is on buyers.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 8, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s pre-open Fed speaker is the day’s only reliable influence to price action regarding economic data. The post-open item isn’t even high-profile.
*James Bullard Speaks
8:35 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
8:45 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET