Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2393.75 | 2389.75 |
| …would target | 2399.25 | 2395.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2388.25 | 2384.25 |
| …would target | 2382.00 | 2378.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Maybe 4th time will be a charm?
Prior highs hold again.
There is no bearish reason to again retest 2390.75 post-open. In fact, it was touched pre-open in reaction to the Employment Situation report.
Three errant ticks pierced it on the opening bar. It reacted down to 2388.00 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But 2388.00 was still being overlapped.
Nevertheless, the reaction has extended to 2385.00, triggering late bias-down. The pattern’s measurement’s target 2384.25. And an offsetting test of the 2382.00 bias-down signal is in-play.
Starting this morning’s dip from so high has created more room to expend selling pressure without it yet damaging the chart. Still overlapping 2388.00 at 9:45 suggests that sellers aren’t strong-handed, while buyers are patiently awaiting the rubber band to be stretched. No buy signal will be considered until testing an objective, or recovering 2388.00.
Regardless of the potential for its eventual recovery, the near-term objective is lower. And nothing prevents it being probed even deeper after the bias environment begins lapsing. RSIs haven’t even gotten oversold, so sellers are barely breaking a sweat.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Volatility knocking.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
NEW LINK! Then, meet in the chaRTroom here For updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up to 2386.00 had already dipped 4-5 points from the overnight high. And the open quickly slid another 5-6 points deeper back under Wednesday’s highs. The noon hour’s brief plunge to 2376.00 neutralized the oversold RSIs left outstanding at Wednesday’s 2375.50 low. All of the plunge was eventually recovered, but only the plunge, as the session went out testing 2386.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging under 2386.00 suddenly triggered a sell signal that intersected at 2385.00, plunging to 2379.00. The catalyst was Crude Oil plunging $1.65 to 43.75. Remarkable as that was, more so was its complete recovery within hours. No fundamental causes for the move are known. And now yesterday’s late high is being probed by several ticks up to 2387.25.
If, then…
Whether or not the 6-7 day correction of last week’s rally finally end depends on today’s open. Recovering 2388.00 yesterday could have reversed momentum up already. Instead, vulnerability to another downleg remains intact up to 2391.00. Rallying 8 points to retrace all of the overnight plunge has created momentum. But there’s still several points of resistance above, and an Employment Situation report ahead. All of which can cut either way, especially when leveraged by Friday Factors as weekend illiquidity approaches. The loose lips of multiple Fed speakers including Yellen are approaching even faster.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour that we have a new chart room address be sure to always login off of the first grade blog post or any other chart-room link and email me right away if you ever have any issues in that regard all right so yesterday we left with uptrending support I have this pivotal uptrending support identify is parallel line to it for this consists of trending someone of the consolidation so it’s parallel line being a cell signal is trigger no reason why it had to be trigger but if the to the trim line and price River to meet Liberty would ensue in fact overnight who incidentally as seemingly innocuous Cross of that uptrending support suddenly proved what was going on when crude oil which will look at it in a moment suddenly plunged poodle plunged about 60-65 well yes cratered as well now well crude oil went to New lows and yes prior Thursday’s low the difference really is irrelevant since there’s been no fundamental cause identified for the crude oil drop which is better Trace entirely and get a look at that in a minute so was yes yes was retraced entirely as well lot of buying pressure expended just to retrieve and that could be problematic for recovering today on the one hand he have 2386 yesterday’s is it morning time with you also was recovered by a Plunge 2388 which is resistance anyway and then all the way up to 2391 which actually 2391 or 9075 doesn’t have any bears reason to be tested if we’re headed to 9075 whether it’s on that late or not probably it’s because the market is going to be pushing a higher but meanwhile lot of pressure was expended lot out of short-term aggressive buyers were attracted into the market by smelling his blood in the water that buying pressure is now satisfied maybe a head’s a little bit higher it’s already piercing is his house back up that basically we can won’t be available or will be available to the open to hear this it’s not probably get out of here the upside and all that can be left behind enough to the upside of course we’ve got the employment situation report that’s going to try preventing that with God and that’s at 8:30 by the way we’ve got and that’s the only a couple we’ve got a lot of fed speakers lined up including the Ellen alright so downside is entirely plausible to resume if we were to look at a new cell signal just keeping it on the spelling correction like pattern to 2384 would be kind of an outlier but I’m 2384 were crossed if it were you know we may not actually break lower what is 2384 were broken then probably already heading down aggressively there’s that much room in other words to death and not really but not yet Alright by the way any questions please in the trim overnight down here maybe that other than actually play rejecting it says drop next puts into play 1206 1211 alright so silver trying to at least slow it’s rated set but it’s got a lower lower lower levels outstanding as well Long Pond which Gap damn that’s no way to resume Trend by the way but gap down not from within the range it’s been a lot of time pressure that’s truly miss just when you need it most to break through not only a prior extreme but what was calculable support the target tested thoroughly tested yesterday didn’t actually rejected to test went out testing it so I can’t really say that about him as in at this point until we see another session of ranging here or backing and filling or whatever it does there’s no new calculation other than 15218 has a bicycle and if that’s not a low there’s another point below from here here’s that crude oil do with yesterday had already dropped quite a bit gapping down trending down throughout remaining down testing a big big supporter of big Target of this pattern but not rejecting it and that’s the problem with not rejecting a Target once tested instead of holding it if it had wanted to introduce could have recovered today it’s still good with her back about 4617 despite having plunged overnight here is that overtime plunge coincide exactly with the S down to 4376 and then recovering and tirely I get a lot of buying pressure expended just to get that done and natural gas CIA reports today I’m sorry you got a big reaction more of the jerk reaction never recovered nothing really bullish about it we still got the same pattern same objective for fresh lives while it’s in the recording here so I can get it sent out and I will see you in the chart ruler I don’t forget we got a Saturday review tomorrow good luck today
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2392.75 | 2389.00 |
| …would target | 2398.25 | 2394.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2385.75 | 2382.00 |
| …would target | 2380.25 | 2376.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Thursday’s brief plunge to 2376.00 finally end the 6-7 day correction of last week’s rally? Its recovery back above the range’s lower-end didn’t extend above 2388.00. Wednesday’s brief plunge to 2375.50 resolved similarly, and didn’t end the correction.
Although Thursday’s low neutralized the requirement to retest Wednesday’s oversold RSIs, there are still attractions to it. Attractions that remain in-play without closing above 2388.00. Attractions that would be neutralized by gapping up above 2391.00.
Thursday’s open was offered a similar proposition, and tried exploiting it, but its gap up failed. At least Friday Factors of the weekend’s approaching illiquidity could leverage gapping up into a short-squeeze back to recent highs. And at least the weeks’ global liquidity challenges could prevent a retest of the week’s lows from extending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.