Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday finally resolved the pattern’s likely probe higher, with potential for extending to 1.1025 before being able to reverse down.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having missed the potential for bouncing from 1245.00, Wednesday night slid to test the upper-end of 1228.00-1236. Extending sharply lower through Thursday morning tested the range’s lower-end to 1225.70. The range must be recovered through two consecutive closes before suggesting a bottom is forming. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1206.00-1211.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The Up/Down-crash’s resolution down under 16.80 extended down sharply Thursday morning to test 16.20, targeting 15.95. Bounces meanwhile should peak before testing “higher prior lows” at 16.50.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Thursday to what had been the decline’s 152-08 bounce limit extended to probe the decline’s 150-20 target down to 151-11. Still testing the decline’s original target or bouncing off of it would form a bottom upon closing above 152-18. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 150-22.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking sharply lower Thursday to fresh trend lows at 45.40 created potential for a reversal setup that would trigger by closing at least back above 45.60 and preferably also above 46.15. A corrective bounce would target 47.65.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of weakness. Its knee-jerk reaction was muted, but price weakened intraday back to Tuesday’s lows, keeping in-play the attraction to fresh lows under 3.11.
Mid-day Update… A better try.
Post-open dip extends, temporarily.
The overnight rally to 2390.75 had been retraced to open at yesterday’s late 2386.00 high. Dipping from there attacked 2381.00 where yesterday’s FOMC statement had been greeted. The balance of the morning ranged sideways.
Plunging into the noon hour attacked yesterday’s 2375.50 to within 2 ticks. Just coming to within 3 ticks has neutralized the attraction to yesterday’s oversold RSIs. But it’s far from optimal, since the low’s “V” bottom is often retested. And that low also has room to be probed down to 2374.00 and 2371.50.
Bouncing 8 points slipped back only enough to attack this afternoon’s 2381.75 bias-down signal to within 1 tick at 1:20. It continued holding at 1:30. No-bias triggered.
No-bias isn’t preventing probing under the bias-down signal. Back above 2384.25 would signal a bigger bounce underway. Otherwise, whether during the no-bias environment or after it, there remains potential to retest this week’s lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 5, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The monthly Employment Situation report is being released alone Friday. That’s not in the wilderness, as no other reports are competing for attention or interpretation. As to the latter, the mass of Fed speakers following through the day will likely share how the data affect their views, albeit coming after this week’s FOMC policy statement.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
11:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*James Bullard, Charles Evans, Eric Rosengren Speak
1:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2391.75 | 2388.00 |
| …would target | 2397.25 | 2393.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2385.50 | 2381.75 |
| …would target | 2378.75 | 2375.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers not marginalized.
Overnight gains retraced entirely.
Already backing-off from attacking 2391.00 ahead of four econ reports at 8:30, their reaction spiked down to attack 2386.00. 
That tested overnight “lower prior highs” and stopped optimistically short of touching yesterday’s late 2386.00 high.
Barely piercing 2386.00 at the open wasn’t any less optimistic. So, bouncing to the 2388.00 bias-up signal resolved down. And down, to 2381.25, triggering no-bias.
Actually, 2388.00 was on a buy signal above 2385.25 with potential to test the 2388.00 bias-up signal. That could extend higher after the no-bias environment constraint lapses.
Testing 2388.00 wouldn’t be surprising, but it’s only getting a small benefit of the doubt. Back under 2383.50 — which I’ll raise if the bounce extends higher — would resume the decline with potential to probe yesterday’s low.