Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Plan B: Resume Plan A.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s drop to 2375.50 only briefly probed under the recent range’s 2378.50 “lower prior highs.” The dip met both the morning’s 2378.00 bias-down target and Monday’s “unfinished business below” at 2377.25. Bouncing greeted the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement at 2381.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low didn’t prevent a knee-jerk reaction up, but only briefly and relatively shallowly to 2384.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low also didn’t prevent twice probing higher highs up to 2386.00, both times reacting back down under 2384.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping-down only momentarily at the Globex open was soon recovered to retest Wednesday’s late 2386.00 high. Ranging there narrowly into and out of Europe’s opens has now broken higher to attack 2391.00, reportedly in anticipation of repealing Obamacare today.
If, then…
Is the overnight rally’s catalyst the anticipation for repealing Obamacare today. This was reported already yesterday afternoon, so it’s as much responsible for inhibiting a retest of the morning’s low. There were two paths to recovery Wednesday afternoon. One would have trended up to close above 2388.00. The other path higher would have first retested the morning’s low. In their absence, gapping up above 2388.00 Thursday would still be credible for extending higher, if not also above Monday’s 2390.75 high. Overnight action is trying, and could be well-rewarded by resuming the rally to new highs. Alternatively, not maintaining a probe above 2388.00-2390.75 would be vulnerable to launching a retest of oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2391.00 would be likely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2384.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] hey good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour okay we’ve got to really easy setup here this morning either Extenze higher or collapses collapses at least back to fill in a gap to yesterday’s clothes but really if that ladies going to play out if we’re going to take a 23 essentially 2391 is centrally opening test or at least overnight test on his priority and not extend it from this base oversold are a size that the low yesterday closed in negative territory after neutralizing its attraction back to Tuesdays close if overnight rallying the list seems somewhat Relentless rally we did show up here but didn’t pull back or shallow correction or a time-based correction if all of that isn’t going to be met by new sponsorship at the open to push price spot price Drive price higher above this prior I then not only do we face we testing yesterday afternoon’s lower prior house which is 2384 2384 being the initial reaction up on the fomc statement that was probed retraced probed again retraced Natalie feeling Natalie testing the lower prayer has filling the Gap back yesterday’s clothes that essentially being the cash Station close 8350 actually even lower 83 basically futures but also all of that reaction down vulnerable to if not likely to extend all the way back yesterday was which was the risk yesterday afternoon we’re over sold all right size require retest there is only yesterday afternoon and this is basically the first thing out of your presents support when tested here’s an instance that similar to what I’m about to describe there’s a pro buyer back down to lower price in the immediate next time in window no other complexity above to develop to attract price higher and what happens after those little prize or influential that give away so somewhat similarly hear you have 2391 attack or tests and other case 2388 being the bias of signal that extended higher do the open attraction back down there has likely to produce some of it but more likely just a delay before collapsing back down where any other lower price of already been used their support meeting with prior Lowe’s yesterday afternoon not likely to do anything more if at all produce a obligatory bounce temporary before extending down to retest yes a slow the bottom oversold are a size optimistically short of 7574 and 7115 potential it’s not likely Hood get out of here the upside and by the way the overnight again they’re only ranging fluctuating through into and out of Europe’s opens basically flip side of that actually it’s being attempted lowering buyers at the moment is already growling up to attack 9075 break that basically that downtrend from last week so I not just the distance but it’s last touch look at the anchor in the connector the connector here at 2390 75 or cover that the relevant window by proxy the high of the entire sequence with being play break that and the entire rally already underway which already requires a resolution from whatever level back up to more chance I could get under way again the one more time hold that 2391 attack or test the likelihood is at least to fill the Gap at yesterday’s clothes and probably also to probe yesterday’s aloe and then find a better bottom and then find the bottom find the buyers the sponsorship that has been lacking since last week’s opening search basically put them on pause if that’s alright 2328 2391 to the open all day otherwise I think the market is not offensive Euro still but that’s not finally probably did not close lower or Pro blower inter day yesterday opening potential for a fresh load today that also doesn’t close negative that also closes at least above yesterday’s range not just above Tuesday’s Lowe’s or I’ll try within range of it to actually there’s a possibility so long as 1236 the most bullish that’s not to say about him is forming that’s at the say a recovery is close at hand just not abortion area silver which kind of what’s been guiding this as far as relentlessly trending down and informing the up/down crash set up and not triggering the down crash portion of the set up under 1680 which is targeting a quick move data 15 1995 extending down so basically this week goes away cuz it’s not being exploited closing immediately about 1705 would invalidate it that’s outlier and just interesting to note long blonde which didn’t extend her yesterday so that help since on Monday the target was met the long-standing target of this break lower was met would have hampered its recovery by immediately triggering the bicycle so yes he’s restrained optimism Health in that regard and that dipping overnight bag down to would have been the bounce limit so now we can Institute a Buy Signal and actually lower this inflection point it is based on holding this pull back them up at the 208 intraday I’m sorry holding it to the clothes I can be probed intraday but recovered through the clothes at the very least we don’t need to close positive don’t need to close above yesterday’s high or after yesterday’s don’t need to close but yes to be bullish today at least there’s enough to pull back limit at least close above 150 to 1718 that would be the minimum inflection point closing positive wouldn’t detract from that it wouldn’t be too much optimism taking this negative overnight probe of the have been balance limit and recovering the close above yesterday’s highs or even Tuesday size that wouldn’t be very shy either that wouldn’t be excessive optimism the excessive optimism the one set up that would be great other than closing back under 152 la which isn’t that’s really good it would only have maybe a longer and more protracted bottom is for me but the only Bears really Bears setup for the bond would be to prove Tuesday’s highs or I’m sorry Wednesday is probably 130 3071 5308 intraday and failed to close above it that’s the really big scenario for the long one trying and failing to prove Wednesday close above it I think that’s not close to 18 approaching the door to another back up above higher price but it’s just at this point is Harlow’s 4740 that too close back of us would be a bottoming setup reversal set up we’ll talk about it if it develops and then natural gas greeting the eia report today from a position of weakness having broken already now couple times and confirmed once under 321 bounce 2 created distributive pattern and then yesterday bouncing so loading up on more week and as long as what would make this bullish if the reaction to eat I ate today were above prioritize 3:27 to 3:30 and maintained that’s the only thing that would make this a bullet set up otherwise were headed to 311 and lower all right here any questions go and post them and I will see you there before the open okay good luck today
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2391.75 | 2388.00 |
| …would target | 2397.00 | 2393.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2383.25 | 2379.75 |
| …would target | 2377.75 | 2374.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday morning’s drop to 2375.50 had never actually printed intraday during the current rally leg. Last Tuesday’s 2378.50 open had gapped 3 points above it, after closing 5 points under it. So, Wednesday’s low was the lowest print in more than a week. Last Tuesday’s 2378.50 open had since served several times as the range’s low.
Ongoing liquidity challenges had already made any probe of fresh lows likely to recover. In fact, it was recovered ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Oversold RSIs at the morning’s 2375.50 low make its retest likely. Reaction to the news was a 3-point surge to 2384.00, which the balance of the session only fluctuated around instead of extending, so Wednesday’s low could still be tested Thursday.
Closing Wednesday above 2388.00 would have sealed a bottom. Gapping up above it Thursday would still be credible for extending higher. But anything shallower remains vulnerable to probing fresh lows before the rally to new highs can resume.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another narrowly fluctuating session Wednesday doesn’t change the likelihood of probing fresh highs, although the delay does start to suggest a knee-jerk reaction down may appear first.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s flat close had avoided confirming Monday’s breakout, so no lower close was required. Wednesday morning did probe fresh lows anyway, attacking 1245.50. Closing back above 1254.50 would suggest the decline is lapsing, but a recovery still relies on closing above 2359.00
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Eleven days of the Up/Dow-crash setup finally broke forcibly Wednesday, down. Unless 17.05 were recovered through the next close, 15.95 is in-play.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow ranging ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement hovered just under the 153-12 buy signal.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
RSIs diverged positively on Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s fresh low down to 47.30. Closing above 48.10 would now start to suggest another bottoming pattern is trying to form. But the actual reversal signal is still no lower than 49.30 until there is more complexity at the low.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Wednesday back above the original 3.21 sell signal didn’t recover a prior high that might have greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. A fresh low close under 3.11 remains outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Rubber band snap?
If probing under yesterday’s lows was the stretch…
This morning’s 2378.00 bias-down target and unfinished business at 2377.25 were probed down to 2375.50. There’s still room down to 2374.00 if not also 2371.50.
They could be tested before the 2:00 FOMC statement. If not greeting the news above this morning’s 2383.50 high, then fresh low are likely in reaction to the news.
Global liquidity issues persist. The pre-FOMC anxiousness will eventually be replaced by pre-post-close earnings anxiousness. In between there is potential for a negative knee-jerk reaction to the news, and its snap back up to fresh session highs, into yesterday’s range.
It’s still possible for a break lower to extend, without recovering. It’s less likely, but the next lower objective would be the 2361.00 area. Rallying without a fresh low is possible, too. But the rubber band stretch might be lacking.