Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one.
Another open, another test of key resistance.
Narrow ranging down to 2384.25 was recovered back to the overnight high pre-open. Its test of 2388.00 was repeated, and slightly exceeded, before price receded — once again trending down sharply through the open.
The slide barely paused until touching this morning’s 2383.75 bias-down signal. It was retested in time to invoke the grace period despite being probed by 1 point while RSIs were simultaneously oversold. Still, it held in time to avoid triggering.
This is a late no-bias environment. An offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-up signal is in-play, but less reliably. Back above 2385.00 would make that more reliable.
But meanwhile, back under 2282.75 would start to signal “no-bias trending” to probe fresh lows anyway. And there’s no bullish reason to revisit yesterday’s ~2381.00 lows. Their test would be very vulnerable to breaking lower, and extending to 2377.25.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight fizzle.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2386.00 was reversed immediately to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2381.00 close. But no lower, despite having put into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2377.25 bias-down signal. Recovering back to the 2387.50 overnight highs was later extended to attack 2391.00, after absorbing a knee-jerk reaction down on headlines. It wasn’t too late for a third reaction down, or for that reaction’s break back under 2388.00 to prevent a close above it that would otherwise have been bullish.
Overnight action’s new info…
An extremely narrow and flat 2-3 point range held one test of 2388.00, and has since been bouncing repeatedly off of 2384.25.
If, then…
Gapping up above 2391.00 Tuesday would suggest last week’s rally is resuming. That’s not indicated, and neither pre-open economic report is capable of triggering that. Quarterly earnings are still coming, but the positive surprises aren’t registering in the market. The door to fresh lows remains every bit open as the two prior sessions — not required, but likely to be recovered.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2381.00 would be likely to trigger the 2383.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2385.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2388.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2394.75 | 2391.00 |
| …would target | 2400.00 | 2396.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2386.25 | 2382.75 |
| …would target | 2381.00 | 2377.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was Monday’s pattern any different than Thursday or Friday? Each held shallow probes under Wednesday’s 2382.00 low. Each rejected early strength — or, in Monday’s case, early strength was only retraced. And each has yet to recover Wednesday’s last-hour slide.
But retracing Monday’s early strength was recovered (twice). And the afternoon was in recovery mode, attacking 2391.00. The only threat of fresh lows was if the recovery mode were to fail. So, is last week’s rally resuming? Gapping up above 2391.00 Tuesday would suggest so.
Monday’s late break lower rejected the probe above 2388.00. And the break closed under the morning’s 2387.50 recovery highs. The door to fresh lows remains every bit open as each session following Thursday and Friday. Fresh lows remain likely to be recovered, and fresh lows overnight could be recovered before Tuesday’s open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s inside day wasn’t predictive, but it also didn’t challenge the ongoing pattern’s likelihood of producing at least a brief retest of last week’s high.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The ongoing delay in rallying while having only barely touched the 1261.00 area resulted in fresh lows Monday down to 1255.00. Closing back above 1259.00 would signal the break lower had held, and that momentum was revering up. There is otherwise little more nearby support below.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows into Monday’s open chipped away at 17.09 which must hold for the pullback to be defined as only a temporary correction. It was broken sharply intraday down to 16.81. Meanwhile, the Up/Down-crash setup has reached 11 consecutive sessions of closing lower, with one allowable exception. And reversing up would be temporary if not recovering 17.23.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s fresh low split the 2-tick difference between the long-standing target, fulfilling it down to 151-21. The bounce limit is now 152-08 to maintain the downside momentum. Otherwise, a recovery back up to 155-13 can begin to form.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The week began under pressure, probing under Friday’s lows, but not trending down or attacking Wednesday’s prior low. Closing above 50.00 would still signal a bottom is forming.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 3.30 high was pierced momentarily Sunday night. But slipping into Monday’s open was extended intraday to retest Thursday’s 3.21 low. At least one new low close under 3.12 remains outstanding.