Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2340.75 | 2337.00 |
| …would target | 2346.50 | 2342.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2335.50 | 2331.75 |
| …would target | 2329.00 | 2325.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Recovery trying to come to a boil.
Correcting the open’s rally.
Another pre-open dip greeted the open at 2336.75. Another bounce soon began. Exceeding 2339.00 suggested more than a correction underway. Filling the gap back to yesterday’s 2345.00 close was likely.
2345.00 was attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Which, apparently, was enough to neutralize its attraction. The reaction down extended to test the 2337.75 bias-down signal as support.
No-bias had triggered already. Cleanly at 10:15. Overlapping the bias-down signal it at 10:30 doesn’t qualify for invalidating what was already triggered cleanly at 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2347.25 bias-up signal is in-play.
Back above 2341.00 would signal the next recovery leg underway. Otherwise, The bias can now be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under the 2332.50 bias-down target.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not so fast.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[Still seeing a miniaturized chart? Please contact me ASAP for the fix.]
Through the prior close…
The week began optimistically, and not a moment too soon. An otherwise narrow overnight range around Friday’s ~2325.00 close broke higher just two hours before Monday’s open. Gapping up to 2331.00 soon surged to the morning’s 2337.25 bias-up target. Despite the weak-handed timing of the pre-open break, eking higher from there exited the afternoon bias environment with another surge. The last thrust retested the 2345.00 origin of Friday afternoon’s decline.
Overnight action’s new info…
Almost an exact, albeit inverted, replica of Sunday night’s pattern. Ranging narrowly included a momentary pierce of fresh highs at 2347.00. Europe’s opens triggered a 10-11 point slide to 2334.50. Its reaction has bounced up to 2342.00.
If, then…
Sliding overnight has been limited, so far, to a single leg. And that single leg hasn’t yet retraced deeply enough to reject yesterday’s rally. But it’s close. Viewing yesterday’s midday “eking” as if a Running Correction — bookended by surges into and out of it — offers two resolutions. Either that was a corrective dip which now allows yesterday’s rally to resume, or else another downleg will begin soon with the objective of probing under Sunday night’s lows. Either of these should be obvious through the open, or else the morning may find itself ranging narrowly around a gap down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2344.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2347.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2341.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2337.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2334.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2350.75 | 2347.25 |
| …would target | 2355.50 | 2352.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.00 | 2337.75 |
| …would target | 2336.00 | 2332.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon’s probing above its 2339.00 bias-up signal was appropriately delayed until exiting the no-bias environment. Then its break extended to probe its bias-up target to 2345.50. Its origin was late enough to not be “no-bias trending” that otherwise would be doomed to failure. That’s a little different from the pre-open surge that originated too late to be the product of strong-handed sponsorship — which has yet to matter.
The optimism is doubly interesting, since fresh highs were probed all this afternoon ahead of high-profile earnings due after the close. While not abnormal, it is unusual. Often, anxiousness paralyzes price action ahead of high-profile news. This suggests that optimism may be a little excessive.
Earnings of high-profile companies often inhibit trending attempts. This is regardless of negative reactions not having a track record of influencing the broader market. But probing fresh highs Monday afternoon ahead of its post-close earnings does seem like excessive optimism. And that is a concern when it develops in the context of trending that has ignored its vulnerability to reversing down already.
Retracing Monday’s rally could be obvious by already trending down overnight. That would be optimal, and in-line with the recent pattern of only retracing prior downlegs, and not actually probing above their origin — Monday’s rally retraced all of Friday afternoon’s downleg. Alternatively, probing higher Tuesday morning should be rejected coming into the noon hour. Otherwise, a bigger corrective bounce or rally is underway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
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Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.