Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2347.00 | 2343.50 |
| …would target | 2352.00 | 2348.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2340.00 | 2336.75 |
| …would target | 2334.50 | 2331.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s pre-open PPI is reliable for influencing price action. And the reaction is often duplicated in reaction to the morning’s post-open reports, like Consumer Sentiment. The afternoon’s 30-year auction comes at an interesting time for the chart.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Post-open Review… And a reminder.
SPECIAL PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE 10:30-2:30 ET (after the market’s first hour, until the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing). The chaRTroom will remain open throughout, and audio will not return…
The open gapped down 3-4 points to 2347.00. The bias timing window proceeded to range choppily between 2344.00-2348.00. The ranging persisted through 10:15. Each of the first five 15-minute checkpoints have overlapped the opening print. Dry cleaners morning?
The 2344.25 bias-down signal happened to hold as support and avoid being triggered. And it withstood its grace period, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2353.50 bias-up signal. Already probing above the pre-10:15 high to 2349.50 makes that even likelier.
But signals are mixed. That surge didn’t last more than 3 minutes before reacting back down into the bias timing window’s range. Buyers aren’t attracting new sponsorship, which wasn’t even likely anyway without the open already rallying.
Breaking lower would likely hold yesterday’s “lower prior highs” at 2340.00. Otherwise, already having probed above the pre-10:15 high, exiting the bias environment under the 2338.00 bias-down target would prevent 2353.50 from becoming “unfinished business above.”
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Also, a programming note.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[PLEASE TEST THE ADOBE RECORDING OF THIS MORNING’S MARKET TOUR]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Other than Monday’s session developing entirely in positive territory and Tuesday being entirely negative, there were interesting similarities between the two. Monday included a 16-point plunge off of the morning’s highs. Tuesday began by plunging 18 points to 2333.50. Both were largely recovered — Tuesday bounced back up to 2349.00 — into their afternoon bias environments which then ranged choppily sideways into the close. The most glaring similarity is that both intraday plunges were only retraced, but not reversed.
Overnight action’s new info…
Surging out of Tuesday’s close quickly pierced the open’s 2351.75 high by 2 ticks. Price began reversing down almost as quickly, but not very deeply, down to 2346.50. Gradually firming from there rallied through Europe’s opens to fresh highs at 2356.50. Now another pullback is probing back into yesterday’s range, dangerously close to the overnight lows, down to 2346.50.
If, then…
SPECIAL PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE 10:30-2:30 ET (after the market’s first hour, until the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing). The chaRTroom will remain open throughout, and audio will not return… Last week ended with two overnight probes under the 2345.00 area. Recovering each before the next cash session open prevented the bottom from falling out. Tuesday’s probe under the 2345.00 area was intraday, which now requires its immediate rejection to avoid extending the decline. Greeting Wednesday’s open in rally mode is the first step. Last night’s rally teased at it temporarily, unlike the current dip. There’s only a little time for another rally effort before the open, and the alternative could require trending down to 2321.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2349.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2344.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2343.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2356.50 | 2353.50 |
| …would target | 2361.75 | 2359.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2347.00 | 2344.25 |
| …would target | 2341.00 | 2338.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.