Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Eking lower.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Test the Adobe version here (Apple users must use the “Puffin Browser”)]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon neutralized the morning’s no-bias trending by bouncing back up to its 2344.25 bias-down signal and to its 2346.00 10:15 print. That bounce itself was no-bias trending, and required being retraced to the afternoon’s 2343.50 bias-up signal, if not also to the 2341.50 1:20 print. Done, and done. But despite neutralizing the downside attractions, the balance of the afternoon ranged sideways into the close. More so, another bias parameter test was left outstanding above by Wednesday’s “inside day” ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
N. Korea triggered some anxiousness with a cryptic announcement. That didn’t so much trigger sellers, as it inhibited buyers. Either way, fresh lows fell to 2334.50. A bounce recovered all the way up to Wednesday’s last relative high at 2344.00. But Europe’s opens only renewed the earlier sentiment, sending price to fresh lows at 2332.25.
If, then…
Trending into a three-day holiday weekend isn’t likely if not already underway by Wednesday morning. And it’s often finished by Wednesday afternoon. This Wednesday was an inside day, albeit inside Tuesday’s session which did probe under the prior several sessions’ lows. Now three-week old lows are being attacked, and it’s no easier to attract new sponsorship. That suggests gapping down — especially if fulfilling or holding a relevant level — may launch an intraday rally. But that’s only a brief window, and not bottoming through the open would more likely decline through the morning. Alternatively, simply not triggering bias-down would likely establish a bottom.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2331.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2333.00 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2327.25. Exiting the open under 2336.00 would be likely to trigger the 2338.50 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 for Thursday’s Market or it’s a holiday shortened week sellers are making the most of it they could have made more of it the fact that they’re making anything of it so late in the week as far as not accelerating at least is one thing that suggests they’re not going to make a lot of it today that may be wrong and I’m going to tell you how it could be wrong first of all quick housekeeping please this is really our last day to try the Adobe recording When you see the link to the Eye Lopes recording please try the Adobe recording should be should be good if your own and I if you are listening to this on an iPad need to download apparently the Puffin Browser Don’t make me say that again okay Puffin Browser and that is apparently the way to listen to Adobe recordings on iPhone or iPad but make sure you can do that we’re also going to work out the resolution the size of the screen today as well I posted that solution yesterday if you didn’t see that I’m going to post it again today and we’ll make sure that works appreciate it alright so Wednesday greetings from the morning so I couple of days into Friday that’s interesting was the first to be under 4220 exactly all the way were traced back to the final hours I just not getting any pressure trend remains intact downtrend Lowe’s in there and it’s being productive and just real quickly we’re going to look at this in the bigger picture she can see there was an attack on 2017 effectively testing it within 3 weeks ago the gap down to 2321 interim support at 2327 probably headed to 2327 lower after already probably lower a couple nights and then probably lower intraday probably had at least 23 27 if not also 2321 the Gap three-week-old Gap and then the room 423 11 the reason why I’m not sure I don’t think it’s because of the holiday weekend so that’s rally out of here at least at this stage and then the euro which has 105 50 outstanding likely except for one thing and that is actually starting to decline this bounce failed and it hasn’t yet rolled back over basically back under the one of those 6:30 level with a witch without being tested yesterday got some interesting action overnight that is potentially dating were traced if not largely or if not entirely then largely I want to see how that plays out before determining whether the next leg of the euro is resuming its decline extending it down to 105 50 or put it in a bigger belts gold sharply higher the next to our targets 1284 and was tested overnight and then 1294 being attacked up to 1297 to you can see the resistance of 9070 1294 excuse me now that 9070 is been touched 1294 remains in place along is pulled back hold 12 8825 preferably 1287 at least at least 1287 silver also sharply higher exploiting that it least went out testing 1830 if that actually recovering it yesterday so the bond with miss this opportunity on Friday 5204 Target extended higher wouldn’t reject this is another reason why I think the market is overnight same day
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2348.75 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2353.75 | 2350.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.75 | 2338.50 |
| …would target | 2336.25 | 2333.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
No-bias trending during Wednesday afternoon neutralized one or two attractions above. The morning’s 2344.25 bias-down signal and the 2346.00 10:15 print were both tested by a surge that attacked 2347.00. Ironically, that surge developed during the afternoon’s no-bias environment, originating under the 2343.50 bias-up signal. It was later retraced, along with the 2341.50 1:20 print.
Also retested was Wednesday’s 2340.00 lower prior highs. Its test Wednesday morning was likely to hold, which it did. Its retest Wednesday afternoon was under no such obligation, but it held anyway.
That last point underscores how difficult it is to attract sponsorship ahead of a three-day holiday weekend. If that Friday will be closed, then trending should start by Wednesday morning, or have played out by Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday was an “inside day.”
Regardless of having avoided a break lower for this long, still being in close proximity to the lows demands vigilance. But fresh lows Thursday would still find it difficult attracting sponsorship. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of room for simply gravitating from the range’s lower-end, up into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
[Please also try the Adobe recording here.]
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s probe above Monday’s highs was already dismissed as unlikely to extend, let alone to prevent retesting Friday’s lows, or even resuming the decline to 1.0550. Wednesday’s weakness is in-line with the bearish scenario.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking 1282.00 overnight enabled gapping up Wednesday, but intraday action only ranged sideways between 1275.00-1279.00. It developed entirely in positive territory but without trending higher. Further upside potential to 1284.00 and 1294.00 requires pullbacks to hold 1272.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying to 18.30 Tuesday resolved by gapping up above 18.30 Wednesday, but then only hovering there intraday instead of extending or rejecting.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight up to 153-09 were attacked throughout Wednesday, stopping pessimistically short within several ticks, forming a Rising Wedge. Closing negative suggests the wedge is breaking lower, but meanwhile any fresh high could almost literally explode higher in this pattern.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing the 53.55 target overnight by 20 cents ultimately held and reversed back down intraday to 53.00. Under 52.70 would target 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Touching the 3.13 sell signal at Wednesday’s open reacted up to the 3.19 buy signal, which would target 3.27 before capitulating.
Mid-day Update… Pies in the sky?
Creating more “unfinished business above.”
The open’s congestion held the 2344.25 bias-down signal’s test to trigger late no-bias, 
putting into play an offsetting test of the 2353.50 bias-up signal. So, upleg, right? No, a downleg.
A rogue downleg? The range broke well after 10:30, making it no-bias trending that required eventually retesting 2344.25. Despite the drop extending to the morning’s 2338.00 bias-down target — which was pierced by only 2 ticks — yesterday’s 2340.00 “lower prior highs” held as support. Now their reaction up has tested 2344.25, along with the 2346.00 10:15 print.
2353.50 can be added to the list of unfinished business above (along with 2352.50 and 2354.75). So, now this afternoon’s 2343.50 bias-up signal can be revisited below. Neutralizing its attraction would allow an afternoon rally. Perhaps even a full-throated recovery.
The impending three-day holiday weekend makes trending to a new extreme difficult. But not impossible, especially since we’re already at the extreme. Exiting the bias environment under 2342.00 could find the close sharply lower.