Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up after Wednesday’s close in reaction to unfavorable Dollar comments was unable to trend up Thursday, and only ranged around Tuesday’s prior highs. The decline remains vulnerable to resuming, targeting 1.0550.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply higher highs overnight came within $4 of the 1294.00 target, needing pullbacks to hold 1287.00 to maintain the upside momentum.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday night’s rally fulfilled the minimum objective above 18.30 to probe the 18.55 prior high. Higher highs are likely so long as 18.30 holds as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday and Wednesday’s refusal to react down from retesting the rally’s target had made fresh highs likely. Surging more than 1 point overnight to 154-10 and gapped up Thursday to entirely above all prior highs. Gapping down under prior highs could form an Island reversal that probes lower temporarily, but Thursday’s high would require retest at some point.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging since fulfilling the rally’s 53.55 target may be supported artificially by other commodities rallying. Regardless, back under 52.70 would target 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s bounce filled the gap back up to Monday’s 3.23 close, and could extend to 3.27 before reversing down, which would be triggered anyway under 3.13.
Mid-day Update… Morning rally shrinks.
Retesting the open’s lows.
No-bias triggered this morning after already having come within 3 ticks of the 2345.50 bias-up signal. 
That’s close enough not to become “unfinished business below” if not actually touched. It wasn’t.
Meanwhile, breaking lower would have potential to at least 2337.00. A break lower did begin soon after the bias environment began lapsing. Its 2337.00 minimum objective was tested during the noon hour. And now probing more than 2 points lower is threatening the next lower objective at 2333.00.
This is not a bias environment, so trending isn’t restrained. The only restraint is this being the afternoon prior to a three-day holiday weekend. That timing’s difficulty in attracting new sponsorship is almost offset by the proximity to prior lows.
We don’t know with a 100% degree of certainty that a durable downleg is not underway, or that the decline will end today at whatever price. Even if we did, fresh lows to 2327.25 would remain possible. And even the most bullish scenario might not avoid that without triggering this afternoon’s 2338.25 bias-up signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. stock markets are closed for Good Friday, both cash AND futures. Banks are open, and several econ reports remain scheduled.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2349.00 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2354.00 | 2350.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.75 | 2338.25 |
| …would target | 2336.50 | 2333.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Trolling for buyers.
Did the right price and time finally coincide?
Any bullish scenario for this morning was required to quickly dispose of selling pressure. 
This morning’s open couldn’t have disposed of sellers faster.
The overnight low pierced the 2333.00 bias-down target by 3 ticks. Several points had been recovered already pre-open. The open dipped momentarily to 2334.00 and then extended the recovery. The opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed at the 2338.50 bias-down signal. Extending higher during the next 15 minutes attacked the 2345.50 bias-up signal to within 3 ticks.
Rallying out of the open was the only other bullish scenario described for today. So, if not probing the overnight low and rejecting it, then the next likely path up was to avoid triggering bias-down altogether. More so, the three-day holiday weekend’s illiquidity is getting exponentially closer. Entering the morning’s bias environment in positive territory suggests strongly that sellers are marginalized.
One caveat is the overnight lows. They don’t require a retest. So, any setup that targets fresh lows would have potential to probe substantially lower. Back under 2340.50 would at least target 2337.00, if only 2337.00. But the burden of proof is on sellers.