Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s break under its Pivotal Uptrending Support at 2358.50 was very productive. A bias-down target was created and met at 2350.50. And last week’s no-bias trending was retraced back to its 2342.25 origin. Even lower prior highs were tested down to 2340.00. (Last week I had forecast 2339.75).
Even 2321.00 and 2111.00 would be in-play if not for one thing — Monday’s close was back above the pivotal uptrend’s 2348.75 connector. That was Wednesday’s pullback low, which defined the plane extending from the prior Wednesday’s pivotal low. connector. Downside momentum attracted no new sponsorship. The question is whether the decline will attract delayed sponsorship at Tuesday’s open.
The afternoon recovery up to 2356.00 gained traction (by entering the final hour above the bias environment high, and then probing fresh highs through the proxy window) so sellers can retake control Tuesday by gapping down. And having trended up into Monday’s close, gapping down Tuesday under Monday afternoon’s 2345.50 lows could form a session-long decline setup. Otherwise, recovering 2366.25 would signal the recovery was extending. Extending to new highs would be all but assured.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows Sunday night thoroughly tested the remaining room below at 1.0690-1.0725 for a pullback, while still being likely to resolve up above 1.0750 and fill last Monday’s 1.0930 opening gap.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday morning’s probe above Friday’s recovery high also tried triggering the 1252.00 buy signal that essentially targets at least a probe above last week’s highs, if not also a fresh recovery high close.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrowly ranging price action Monday continued to avoid resuming the rally above 18.30 for a probe above 18.55, and also avoided rejecting the test of 18.30 for launching a new downleg.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Unfinished business above at last Monday’s 151-26 gap up was finally tested Monday morning, probed briefly to a fresh high at 152-10. The 150-24 sell signal is no longer unlikely to break lower if tested. Just closing under 151-12 would suggest a top is completing.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday morning’s pullback was relatively shallow, and barely threatened to reject the confirmed bottom already targeting 53.55 above.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap up to 3.24 was reversed down sharply into Monday’s open, down to the 3.13 sell signal whose break would be likely to launch a new downleg.
Mid-day Update… Now, the wait.
Bounce stops short of reversal signal.
There is no further unfinished business below. This morning’s 2350.50 bias-down target was met, which was triggered under 2357.75. Tuesday morning’s no-bias trending above 2342.25 had required a retest. It was probed during the noon hour down to 2340.00.
Now a bounce has held this afternoon’s 2349.75 bias-up signal. No offsetting test of its bias-down signal is required. Entering the noon hour above 2350.50 would have been optimal, anyway.
Backing-and-filling during this afternoon’s bias environment could still resolve up into the close. Closing back under 2342.25 would instead put into play 2321.00 and probably also 2311.00 below.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 4, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s several econ reports culminate in the highest-profile among them, but none has a reliable track record for influencing price action.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2353.25 | 2349.75 |
| …would target | 2359.25 | 2356.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2345.50 | 2342.25 |
| …would target | 2339.75 | 2336.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.