Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… And down. And done?
Uptrending support breaks. Hard.
Opening unchanged at 2359.25 had ranged 2358.00-2361.75 through the open, surrounded by econ reports. But that only inhibited a resolution. 
Fresh lows after the first half-hour also broke the uptrending pivotal support I described during the Tour.
This morning’s 2357.75 bias-down signal triggered cleanly on the way down to 2352.75. Bouncing only touched the bias-down signal, which doesn’t suffice for invalidating a cleanly triggered signal. Shorting there, with a SAR above 2359.00, was soon probing back under its 2355.00 inflection point.
And already, the 2350.50 bias-down target has been met. And also probed. A lot. The 2348.75 connector of the uptrending pivotal support is being probed. A lot. RSIs are oversold.
Having tested 2348.75, entering the noon hour back above 2350.50 would suggest the selling has ended. Not recovering 2348.75 would next target the “unfinished business below” at 2348.25 still outstanding from last week.
Already breaking lower to 2343.50 makes the 2342.25 unfinished business likelier. Which had better hold its test, because the 2321.00 attraction below it could be probed by 10 points.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Testing: 1, 2?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s session was certainly choppy, but being an “inside day” made it essentially a non-event. Fridays aren’t often non-events, but non-eventful sessions often occur on Fridays. The chop began with Thursday night’s dip to 2356.75, retracing it entirely into the afternoon bias environment, touching 
Thursday morning’s 2366.75 high. That was nothing. Friday’s remaining 90 minutes contained a 6-7 point drop and its retracement, then a 9-point plunge through close to 2357.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up to test 2361.00, almost immediately retracing Friday’s last three minutes of selling. A fresh low at 2356.00 was quickly recovered to 2361.00, too. But fresh highs extending to greet Europe’s opens at 2363.25 has been retraced down to unchanged at 2359.00.
If, then…
Absorbing last Monday’s opening dip through its open marked the recent low. Does Friday’s inside day mark Thursday as the rally’s high? Not if greeting the week with another opening dip must be absorbed quickly like last Monday. I review the “uptrending pivotal support” (depicted in the two charts nearby) whose current test will resolve in either a fresh recovery high, or else retrace back down to last week’s lows. Unfinished business below includes 2342.25 and 2321.00, whose retest at this late stage might as well extend to 2311.00. Influences include an unusually busy Monday econ calendar today, in a week ending with the Employment Situation report, while jockeying ahead of the oncoming quarterly earnings onslaught.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2356.00 would be likely to trigger the 2357.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2360.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2367.50 | 2364.00 |
| …would target | 2372.50 | 2369.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2361.25 | 2357.75 |
| …would target | 2354.00 | 2350.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: There is NO Saturday Review this weekend.
The week began with a bang, and ended with a whimper. Gapping down to fresh pullback lows Monday, and probing lower intraday, had tested two critical levels. Both 2327.00 and 2317.00 held their test (the latter to within 3 ticks) before reversing to close back above 2331.00. The pullback had ended. That much we knew instantly.
Instantly extending Monday’s intraday recovery into a multi-session rally was not assured. And it developed despite bearish influences and attractions left outstanding below. Monday’s 2321.00 gap down will want to be filled eventually. Tuesday morning’s 2342.25 bias-up signal requires an eventual retest.
But Friday’s session hardly suggested an association with such volatility that recently preceded it. Thursday night’s slide was being reversed before the open, and then more so into the afternoon. All action developed at or between its bias signals. The afternoon bias environment’s drop was not credible for extending down for its no-bias timing, so it recovered. Temporarily, as a deeper drop into the close retested the open’s low, but held the range.
That was the week. Friday’s session may have been the week’s hallowest, if not also for the month. Now we have one week before end-o’quarter earnings start buffeting the opens, and inhibiting the closes. Price action during its last month struggled, suggesting that analysts weren’t awed upon checking in with their coverage. In fact, this past couple of week’s has already seen misses appearing. Example, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) plunging Thursday as its stores apparently have seen too few misses arriving. A week of similar higher-profile earnings news probably won’t attract stock buyers. Anticipation for that week can’t be very attractive, either.
But Friday’s whimper is obvious even without being juxtaposed against Monday’s bang. It was essentially an “inside day” and it is positioned at a multi-session recovery’s extreme. Presumably, there is still an objective or two outstanding above, else the conditions and attractions below would have produced a downside bang into the weekend. The question is in what order we’re about to see one more weak-handed optimistic surge ahead of earnings, and another defensive reaction down/
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REPEATING: There is NO Saturday Review this weekend. Overnight Globex trading can be monitored Sunday night in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrowly fluctuating Friday around 1.0720 maintains the likelihood of having ended the reaction down from Monday’s gap up, and for retesting that gap up to be the next leg.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing a fresh pullback low overnight held the prior Thursday’s low, and recovered intraday to try triggering the 1252.00 buy signal that would enable one more fresh high close.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not closing negative Friday for a second consecutive session after Thursday touched “higher prior lows” at 18:30 can make the rally likely to next target a probe above 18.55.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Intraday probing a little deeper this time under the 150-24 sell signal down to the 150-06 previous pullback limit was still less likely to extend down. Recovering back into positive territory suggests the unfinished business above at Monday’s 151-26 opening gap will be filled next.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs Friday continued to suggest that the bottoming pattern has now resolved higher, targeting 53.55 so long as 49.30 holds as support.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Friday attacked the week’s highs and consolidated above the 3.13 sell signal that was only touched Thursday as support, now ready to break lower into a durable downleg.