Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having reacted straight down since Monday’s gap up, Wednesday’s gap down served as capitulation to the premature reversal attempt. It’s not a buy signal, but the gap back up to Monday’s 1.0935 open should be filled before a durable decline would be credible.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post-close dip back down to Friday’s close did not extend lower overnight, but its reaction up was shallow.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday kept alive the attraction to “higher prior lows” at 18.30, which remain in-play so long as 17.90 holds as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s test of the 150-24 sell signal wasn’t likely to break lower without first bouncing to fill Monday’s 151-26 gap open at the rally’s 152-00 target. Wednesday’s gap up rejected the test, and flat-to-higher ranging kept alive that attraction above.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the 48.50 buy signal through Tuesday’s close, the aggressive reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA report probed above 49.00 to further suggest that a durable bottom is forming, testing 49.30 whose recovery would confirm.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to fresh highs Wednesday was too aggressive at this stage of the pattern to be reliable for extending higher, other than greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Narrow minding.
No trending today, as the market tends to a narrow range.
Holding a test of the morning’s 2350.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2358.00 bias-up signal. It was probed by 3 ticks. Reacting down 6 points was consolidated through the noon hour, resisted by yesterday afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target.
Two representations of buying pressure fulfilled during the last two major timing windows. And still no further rally. Is the rally pausing, or stuck?
There’s also still no significant reversal down. And this afternoon’s bias-up did signal — late, but it is already producing a fresh high for confirmation.
Exiting this afternoon’s bias environment without yet breaking above yesterday’s highs would further suggest the rally’s sponsorship needs refueling. A lot of buying pressure would have been fulfilled at that point, so a shallow reaction down wouldn’t be relevant.
By the same token, exiting the bias environment probing above yesterday’s highs would suggest new sponsorship has arrived. And the flip-side of that token would expect any credible rally to be steep.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 30, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s econ reports are much more high-profile than they are reliable for influencing price action. But three Fed speakers through the balance of the morning can keep price action choppy.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Dennis Kaplan Speaks
11:00 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
11:15 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2359.00 | 2355.75 |
| …would target | 2365.25 | 2362.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2352.00 | 2348.75 |
| …would target | 2343.25 | 2343.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not without a fight.
Pre-open and post-open lows bouncing.
The overnight dip had touched the 2350.00 bias-down signal. Its pre-open bounce up to 2353.25 was retraced, and then extended post-open down to 2348.75. But this morning’s template for trending down has since been ignored.
Instead, a bigger bounce touched 2355.00 as the first half-hour lapsed. Consolidating there for awhile around yesterday’s 2354.50 cash session close has now broken to fresh highs attacking the 2358.00 bias-up signal within 1 tick.
3 ticks would be close enough to fulfill the requirement to test 2358.00. Its test was put into play by holding the bias-down signal’s test. It won’t become unfinished business above if not actually touched this morning.
Back under 2353.50 would start to signal the post-open recovery is failing. Dipping to fresh session lows would still be possible. Otherwise, there’s room up to yesterday’s 2360.50 high before suggesting that the rally is extending, regardless of no-bias trending restraints.