Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Second time’s a charm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning resumed Monday’s rally. But it was “no-bias trending,” having originated after touching both the 2333.50 and 2342.25 bias signals without breaking either by 10:15. The afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target was probed by 3 points but never broken. Reversing down at the bias environment’s exit fell to 2351.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow sideways ranging eventually firmed into Europe’s opens, and then only a little further to within 1 tick of 2357.00. That is resistance, having retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s late drop. Its reaction down has probed 2351.00 by 1 point.
If, then…
Tuesday’s rally gained no traction, similar to Monday’s. Also similarly, Wednesday morning is vulnerable to trending back down, as was Tuesday morning. But Tuesday did not trend back down. Wednesday is likelier to comply with the near-term bearish influence, less similarly, precisely because Tuesday did not. “Unfinished business below” at 2342.25 is also the beginning of “lower prior highs” down to 2339.75. Their support may suffice to launch the recovery’s next upleg, and to avoid the next lower attraction at Monday’s 2321.00 gap down. Somehow recovering to gap up above Tuesday’s 2360.50 high — or at least above 2357.00 — could extend intraday up to “higher prior lows” at 2369.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2348.00 would be likely to trigger the 2350.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2355.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her second time’s a charm maybe the interesting thing or things about yesterday’s rally one is that Tuesdays or Mondays really didn’t gain traction for itself or it was rewarding without putting into any other higher objective in the play so the only way to Rally durably any durable rally the next day should wait until have him buy some time in his last the four originating otherwise it’s generally sponsored by week and yesterday’s rally started too early as you can see late afternoon dipped that’s not a big Consequence the other big thing about yesterday’s rally was its origination during the environment nope I already been actually but that didn’t prevent breaking any way that should be traced to its broken 4225 at a minimum yesterday’s so it requires being traced or at least back down to some relevant weather is 4825 it’s a different kind of this morning’s influence as likely as it was yesterday morning which didn’t because to resolve differently ignoring the second consecutive morning isn’t it is 321 rallying without leaving any unf inished business below rallying to overcome that fear of influence at least he returned with required gapping up above yesterday’s high so if somehow that develops before the open then it develops before the open and 2369 area is basically hire Prairie Lowe’s and basically a air pocket up to it that’s in case of the Gap up okay any questions of the chart room as far as other markets the Aussie printed a fresh yesterday gap down it’s down under all prior Lowe’s in his you have to be were tested from above really even without that just reading that as a corrective bounce anyway unless there’s a second consecutive are closed today how to pound that letter was just delivered so strength here on that they oversee as to whether or not agree baby boys for the pound of it has already been reflected in this qualify actually and going forward here to make natural gas is just extending the rally why did Jeopardy and hear if I can get through here it gets to hear but I don’t have any bicycle to care for all right listen to recording here if there is any questions go to put into the charger then I’ll see you there before the open good luck today
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
“No-bias trending” isn’t usual, but it’s normal for strong hands to occasionally not defend against a weak-handed breakout. Retracing the broken bias signal is the normal consequence. Tuesday morning’s no-bias trending was unusual, since both bias signals had been touched before triggering no-bias.
And its consequences remain outstanding. At least Tuesday morning’s 2342.25 bias-up signal requires a retest, if not also the 10:15 2339.75 print. Both due to Tuesday morning’s no-bias trending.
Wednesday morning is vulnerable to trending back down, anyway. Tuesday afternoon, like Monday afternoon, didn’t gain traction for its rally. The afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target was met and held, probed too shallowly to create any anchor. The bias environment exit reversed back down through the close to 2351.00.
Tuesday overcame the lack of traction in an atypical way. Wednesday could overcome it by gapping up above Tuesday’s 2360.50 high. There’s essentially an air pocket up to “higher prior lows” at 2369.00. Any less opening strength would be likelier to extend the pullback.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After probing the 1.0900 objective Monday but closing back under it, Tuesday extended further down to test “lower prior highs” at 1.0860. A bounce should fill the gap back up to Monday’s 1.0937 open before any deeper dip would be credible for extending down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s inside day immediately neutralized the gap back up to Monday’s 1258.00 open. A post-close dip tested “lower prior highs” at 1249.50 which must hold to maintain potential for one more higher close.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending the rally Tuesday has returned to the orbit of “higher prior lows” at 18.30, with potential to probe even higher above 18.55 so long as 17.90 holds pullbacks as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s test of the 152-00 objective ended the day testing its 151-12 pullback limit. Extending down Tuesday filled the gap back to Friday’s 151-00 close. A bounce should fill the gap back up to Monday’s 151-26 open before triggering the 150-24 sell signal.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday above last week’s 48.00 resistance extended through the 48.50 buy signal. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would all but seal a bottom.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-higher ranging Tuesday around 3.09 avoided triggering the 2.99 sell signal, but didn’t reinstate the uptrend.
Mid-day Update… Don’t. Look. Down.
No-bias trending pushes higher.
This morning’s 2342 25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger at 10:15. It should define the window’s upper-end if tested during the no-bias environment. Probing above it is called “no-bias trending” and requires being retraced to at least 2342.25 — often back down to the 2339.75 10:15 print.
None of which has prevented this morning’s no-bias trending from extending higher. This afternoon’s 2351.75 bias-up signal has triggered, and its 2357.00 bias-up target is now less than 2 points higher.
There’s no particular timing to fulfilling the required retracement back to 2342.25. And now unfinished business above would be left outstanding at 2357.00. Unless 2357.00 were tested first.
There’s another influence lurking. I just described how this morning’s rally is premature for originating during a no-bias environment. It’s also premature since yesterday’s rally had gained no traction for its effort. So, rallying before late-afternoon is vulnerable to retracing back through its origin.
Rallying in spite of bearish influences may be weak-handed sponsorship, and creating pent-up selling pressure. But meanwhile the bias-up is in-play. And not reacting down to its 2357.00 target could extend even higher.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2361.25 | 2358.00 |
| …would target | 2367.50 | 2364.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2353.25 | 2350.00 |
| …would target | 2347.00 | 2343.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.