Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging narrowly flat-to-lower Thursday didn’t reject the confirmed breakout above 1.1333 but does now all but require the recovery to resume without further delay if it is valid.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Wednesday to attack 1350.00 despite already fulfilling its 1328.30 and 1333.00 upside objectives Tuesday didn’t prevent reacting down Thursday. The two upside objectives now serve as a range of support to a pullback, which was tested Thursday afternoon. Back above 1335.50 would resume the rally.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing the 16.16 objective Wednesday had already stopped pessimistically short of also probing the 16.20 prior high. Pessimism only expanded by immediately collapsing back down to test 15.80 support. That’s natural support at “lower prior highs,” suggesting that impatient sellers are now done and the rally can resume at any time.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Thursday to and through the 146-00 pullback limit and probing lower intraday down to 145-17 must recover 146-04 without further delay to maintain upside momentum of the massive Ascending Triangle pattern. Meanwhile, the drop has room to 145-16 while still being only a pullback and not yet reversing momentum down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength didn’t prevent a knee-jerk reaction down, but the weakness was very shallow testing only 56.65. The reaction is likely to recover, so long as any further weakness hold 55.85-56.05 as support.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, or weakness, having ranged narrowly under 2.70 for multiple consecutive sessions. The shallow knee-jerk reaction only touched 2.70 which remains intact as a buy signal.
Mid-day Update… Not easily absorbed.
Opening drop retraced only back to the open.
The 2777.75 opening print quickly extended down to confirm the Globex-flip setup. That confirmation represented most of this morning’s drop, which got to 2769.00 before 10:15. There has yet to be a lower low, but the bias environment remained under pressure.
The noon hour recovered to test the 2777.75 open, attacking 2782.00. But the 2782.75 bias-up signal wasn’t even touched, and now 2777.75 is being probed as support.
Just avoiding an afternoon bounce — not necessarily extending down — would suggest the bearish Globex-flip influence will stretch through tomorrow morning, too. Any fresh low would next target 2753.00-2757.50. None of which even considers the Isolation setup, which would target at least 2730.00. But back above 2783.75 would start to signal a recovery underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 22, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s spate of Fed speakers is the day’s only high-profile economic inputs. There being several afternoon speakers also helps to keep alive volatility into the weekend.
*John Williams Speaks
10:15 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*Richard Clarida Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2783.25 | 2782.75 |
| …would target | 2789.75 | 2789.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2774.25 | 2774.00 |
| …would target | 2767.75 | 2767.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Paradigm unshifted.
Upside rejected again.
Despite probing yesterday’s highs up to 2798.00 overnight, Wednesday’s 2786.00 cash session close was reversed before the open. 
As was the 2784.50 earlier Globex low, and both were maintained through Thursday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility. Both the Isolation and Globex-flip setups have formed.
The former setup carries substantially lower objectives, potentially 2730.00 and 2681.00. The latter setup influences this morning’s direction, and then also tomorrow morning’s direction if the afternoon doesn’t bounce.
Bias-down triggered, but wasn’t renewed because the 2772.25 bias-down target was still being touched at 10:15. The 2769.00 pre-10:15 low has also held, but its break would have potential to the 2753.00 61.8% retracement back into last Thursday-Friday’s gap.
One more point of interest, regardless of the potential downside objectives… Gapping down and exiting the open back under 2776.00-2777.00 continues to hold the door open for still forming a topping pattern. Recovering through the close would likely shut that door.