Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2793.50 | 2793.50 |
| …would target | 2798.75 | 2798.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2785.25 | 2785.25 |
| …would target | 2779.00 | 2779.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Friday Factors.
Rally effort holding resistance.
Gapping up to 2782.00 and attacking 2784.50 stopped short of retesting the overnight high’s attack on 2788.00. Gapping up above 2788.00 would have foreclosed on the downside, so it otherwise remains alive.
The post-open reaction down attacked the 2779.00 bias-up signal as support, which held. Its reaction attacked the overnight high to within 3 ticks. Bias-up triggered, but its 2784.50 bias-up target was still being touched at 10:15. Recovering it would have renewed the bias-up signal, so it otherwise requires new sponsorship.
Not recovering 2784.50 through the open has maintained the Globex-flip setup’s potential morning bearish influence. Back under 2783.25 would start to signal momentum reversing back down. The 2779.00 bias-up signal’s support would be a challenge until the bias environment began lapsing. Exiting the bias environment above 2784.50 would be vulnerable extending higher
This being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. So, reversing down depends greatly on reversing down into the bias environment exit, and more so on no extending higher this morning.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Morning bears are hibernating.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday opened back under the earlier 2784.50 Globex low. This isn’t in itself relevant lot, but it’s bearish after having probed the prior day’s high overnight. Which Wednesday’s night’s 2798.00 had done, forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. The 2778.00 open extended down 9 points to 2769.00 through 10:15, then ranged flat-to-higher back up to the open. Noon’s attack on 2782.00 launched the next downleg to eventually form a Double Bottom attacking 2764.00. The last half-hour’s bounce attacked 2776.00 at the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight held support at 2770.75 support. That was Thursday’s last identified sell signal left untriggered through the close. It remains untriggered, as price action since midnight rallied 16 points to test 2787.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not rallying yesterday afternoon suggests that the bearish Globex-flip will influence this morning, too. Its trigger was 2784.50, which is being probed now as resistance. Recovering 2784.50 through the open would start to undermine this morning’s bearish influence. But that would be only a warning, while gapping up above Wednesday’s 2788.00 highs would suggest the 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme” retest is underway, first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2788.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2784.50 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2793.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2781.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2779.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2779.25 | 2779.00 |
| …would target | 2784.75 | 2784.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2770.00 | 2770.00 |
| …would target | 2663.75 | 2663.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
A lot of selling pressure went into triggering Thursday’s Globex-flip setup. Probing 10 points above Wednesday’s ~2788.00 highs was reversed to open under the earlier 2784.50 Globex low.
The 2778.00 open extended down 9 points to 2769.00 through the 10:15 bias timing window. That’s 30 points under the overnight high, a lot of selling pressure. This is probably responsible for limiting the bearish Globex-flip’s morning influence only preventing a recovery, and not extending down.
Bouncing through the noon hour held tests of the open. More important, the afternoon bias environment did not bounce, signaling that the bearish Globex-flip’s influence would persist through the following morning. In fact, the afternoon trended down to sharply lower lows attacking 2764.00.
A bounce was retraced to retest 2764.00, where RSIs made higher lows. Firming through the position-squaring window began surging to eventually attack 2776.00 at the close. Now a great deal of buying pressure has been expended, during a window not likely to gain traction for its effort, and without recovering a relevant level.
Resuming the decline would next target 2753.00-2757.50, and then 2730.00 to fulfill the Isolation setup’s objective. Gapping up above Wednesday’s 2788.00 highs would suggest the 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme” retest was underway, first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.