Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2797.00 | 2796.75 |
| …would target | 2804.00 | 2803.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2785.00 | 2785.00 |
| …would target | 2778.00 | 2778.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday night’s rally deposited the market at the door of invalidating the bearish Globex-flip setup, but only stumbled through. I needed either a gap up above 2788.00 or simply exiting the open above 2784.50 to signal the Globex-flip wouldn’t be influential. Neither was recovered until too late to be predictive. And they were recovered on the way to fresh recovery highs at 2794.50.
Fresh intraday recovery highs. Wednesday night’s 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is higher, which disqualifies Friday’s close from being a new trend extreme. That would have required an eventual higher close. But having recovered into the orbit of 2798.00 for the first time since already leaving it before Thursday’s open, its retest should be imminent.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s Isolation setup is in jeopardy. It had formed by not probing back above Wednesday’s high intraday. It would remain intact by not closing back above Wednesday’s high — which Friday did. The close’s probe above Wednesday’s high began after entering the position-squaring window, so it could be credibly reinstated by trending back down through Monday morning, perhaps attracted to oversold RSIs at Friday afternoon’s 2781.25 low
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s pullback from Tuesday’s confirmed breakout leaves no reason to extend the pullback any deeper, or to further delay resuming the recovery effort. Friday did not extend any deeper, but also has not resumed the rally, so almost any initial strength coming out of the weekend would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Friday was still testing the 1328.50-1333.00 pullback limit, and not yet rallying out of it to any degree that would be reliable for resuming the rally.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s test of “lower prior highs” under 15.80 was reversed back up through the 15.95 buy signal Friday to suggest the recent high’s retest is now underway.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap down to and through 146-04 had stopped short of breaking support at 145-16, which would have confirmed the reversal. The opportunity to confirm the reversal wasn’t exploited as Friday’s open gapped back up above the 146-12 buy signal and tested Wednesday’s 146-21 close.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting recent highs overnight and into Friday’s open doesn’t prevent fluctuating back down to test the 55.85-56.05 pullback limit before extending the rally. The rally meanwhile remains likely to resume at some point.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 2.70 buy signal was barely pierced going into the weekend, but at least a new low was avoided on a Friday for the second consecutive week to add credibility to a bottom forming.
Mid-day Update… Holding up.
No bearish influence, as prior highs attract price up.
Globex-flip did not influence this morning’s bias environment. The open didn’t gap up above 2788.00, and yesterday’s 2784.50 trigger wasn’t recovered through the open. 
Either of these would have told us Globex-flip’s influence had lapsed. Neither signal formed, but its influence lapsed anyway.
Meanwhile, the bias environment extended the overnight rally up to 2793.50, and then another point higher into noon. Pulling back to 2787.00 through the noon hour avoided touching the 2785.25 bias-down signal. It can still be tested during the no-bias environment.
Be aware of a couple of normal Friday afternoon behaviors. First, sponsorship for trending and especially for countertrending is difficult to generate. Second, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s high or a rally day is difficult to resume the rally. None of which requires reversing down, but that becomes the easier path.
Meanwhile, maintaining a break back above 2790.75 before the bias environment lapses could resume the rally. And the market is back in the orbit of Wednesday night’s 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme,” which would be its likely attraction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 25, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Monday’s two Fed surveys has any track record for influencing price action. But two on the same day does offer potential for the second report to confirm an outlier or to diverge drastically, either case being likely to generate a price reaction.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET