Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2813.00 | 2813.50 |
| …would target | 2819.00 | 2819.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2805.50 | 2806.25 |
| …would target | 2800.50 | 2801.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The downside of up.
Gap up scares away strong-handed reinforcements.
Gapping open beyond all prior sessions during a trend can be the inverse of a standing stop. Standing stops are opens in mid-range, no likelier to resolve in one direction than in the other. 
Similarly, gapping open beyond all prior sessions is equally likely to resolve in one direction or the other.
After extending to fresh highs pre-open, I was able to warn the chaRTroom of the unlikelihood for getting a reliable early signal. The opening 15 minutes of volatility probed higher several times, but kept returning to its 2807.75 opening print. Overnight buyers had not attracted reinforcements.
A buy signal’s inflection point at 2810.00 was overlapped plenty, only once by at least 4 ticks, and never beyond its 4-minute high. Its reaction overlapped a sell signal’s 2807.00 inflection point without exceeding its 4-minute low. The back-and-forth repeated with 2 more inflection points, and their tests only confirmed pre-open suspicions that an early signal would be difficult.
The sell signal’s retest was finally productive, exceeding its 3-4 minute low, even if only by a couple of errant ticks. And its test included the first detached bar. Rejecting the test would require such strong-handed sponsorship that a probe of fresh highs would be in-play. The dip has been violated, and a probe of fresh highs is now likely in-play, and likely targeting 2813.50. (Just met it.)
Quickly rejecting detached bars at the low’s retest gave us confidence in a reversal developing, rewarding both patience and limiting exposure to earlier signals per the warning. The new warning is more of a reminder, that still nothing requires extending any higher. Another downdraft would target 2802.00, and still require testing the 2807.75 opening print from below before a durable decline could be credible.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Reacting up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to Thursday’s 2782.00 noon hour high paused only briefly before extending up to Wednesday’s pivotal 2787.50 highs. And then not much longer before extending to fresh intraday highs at 2794.50 by noon. Stopping short of Wednesday night’s 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme,” the bias environment fell 2781.00 in reaction to a China trade headline. But the final hour recovered to overlap Wednesday’s 2790.75 high at the cash session close. Extending higher through the futures close reached 2795.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
A Trump China trade tweet announced that progress was sufficient to abandon Friday’s deadline for hiking tariffs. The tweet came only 20 minutes before Sunday night’s Globex open, easily triggering a gap up to 2799.50. Follow-through to 2803.50 ended the reaction as quickly as it had begun. Narrow sideways ranging eventually dipped to 2794.50 testing gap-to-gap 61.8% support. Its reaction improved steadily to attack earlier highs by Europe’s opens, then extended to fresh highs at 2805.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
We have to wonder what last night’s organic open would have done, if not for the tweet’s artificial catalyst. Its immediate effect proved underwhelming, quickly peaking within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-up target. Recovering its retracement to fresh highs is now a retest of prior resistance, and not necessarily a breakout with traction. The more recent fresh high does now have complexity that the original surge lacked, qualifying as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. Fresh highs maintained during Monday’s opening 15 minutes would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Credible for extending, but not required. Reacting down would be credible for retracing back into Friday’s range. A likely attraction below would be Wednesday’s 2790.75 high, which Friday’s close was still overlapping, and which was maintaining Thursday’s Isolation setup that is hanging by a thread.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2795.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2696.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2799.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2806.00 would be likely to exceed the 2803.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/23/19) …Safety off.
Recent intraday volatility has not been noise. Recent probes beyond the prior session’s range haven’t been timid, and yet haven’t been immediately maintained. All while the trend ekes out its highest recovery levels, and reversal setups begin forming. A string of intraday opportunities seems to be lurking, with multi-multi-point intraday moves, and multiple intraday reversals.
Something seems to be spooking the game, while heavier and heavier thuds are starting to shake the ground. This week we apply the specific analysis of price action to label the above characterizations and to reach its conclusion. Many of the setups we cover are repeated often in the market, if not always ahead of such potentially wide-ranging windows.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MRK, FB, LLY, PLNT, STMP
transcript
—————– (02/23/2019 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
Mark G: gm
ljr iPad: gm
—————– (02/23/2019 09:35) —————–
jp: gm
—————– (02/23/2019 10:05) —————–
Mark G: 2815-2820 area could also server as resistance to sling shot down to 2730?
Mark G: serve
—————– (02/23/2019 10:19) —————–
Mark G: MRK
ljr iPad: FB fill gap below?
ljr iPad: LLY
Mark G: Volume is declining
—————– (02/23/2019 10:22) —————–
Mark G: can get to 90?
—————– (02/23/2019 10:24) —————–
ljr iPad: PLNT
—————– (02/23/2019 10:31) —————–
ljr iPad: just looking higher obj
—————– (02/23/2019 10:34) —————–
ljr iPad: STMP – thoughts on it…going lower?
—————– (02/23/2019 10:37) —————–
ljr iPad: plnt might have earnings next week
—————– (02/23/2019 10:41) —————–
ljr iPad: sorry don’t know yet
—————– (02/23/2019 10:43) —————–
Mark G: thx much
ljr iPad: just stmp
Bill G: thanks
ljr iPad: cancelled us post contract
—————– (02/23/2019 10:47) —————–
ljr iPad: actually u think lower lows in future
—————– (02/23/2019 10:50) —————–
ljr iPad: thanks.
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!