Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2351.00 | 2347.25 |
| …would target | 2356.00 | 2352.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2340.50 | 2336.75 |
| …would target | 2334.75 | 2331.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Same old crowd.
Pre-open bounce holds resistance.
the overnight dip down to 2332.25 had recovered through Europe’s opens, at least attacking yesterday’s 2342.25 futures close. Hours of ranging around yesterday’s 2340.00 cash session close greeted the open.
Immediately trending up into yesterday’s range could have isolated sellers and reversed momentum up. But buyers couldn’t exploit the proximity and timing before price reversed down sharply. At 10:30, 2333.00 was being tested.
Now that the 2337.25 bias-down signal triggered cleanly, its 2331.00 target is in-play. And a fresh post-10:15 low makes it exponentially more difficult to invalidate the bias-down, by exiting the bias environment above the 2350.50 bias-up signal.
Recovering 2350.50 seemed very unlikely at 2333.00. Then price spiked back up to 2342.00. Invalidation is still a stretch, but some sort of detour become likelier the longer that 2337.25 maintains its recovery.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Slow-playing another push.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open maintained its gap up above Monday morning’s 2376.00 highs. But it didn’t extend, hinting at a crack forming in the bullish scenario. By the time that the 2374.00 bias-up signal failed to trigger, its offsetting test of the 2364.75 bias-down signal was being probed. Extending down to 2344.50 easily exited the morning’s bias environment under its 2359.75 bias-down target, invalidating the drop’s “no-bias trending” and any requirement to be retraced. The intraday series of lower lows and lower highs remained intact through the futures close. The futures close was a bounce that overlapped the decline’s 2342.00 objective, and did not decisively recover it..
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s Globex open immediately resumed the drop. Fresh lows at 2332.25 had reacted up quickly to greet Europe’s opens at 2336.00. Very choppy action has since extended up to 2341.50. That’s almost flat while international exchanges still struggle.
If, then…
Not decisively recovering 2342.00 Tuesday kept alive downside momentum. That could have been satisfied by the overnight lower lows, but probably not. Regardless, we’ll be monitoring for a Wreversal Wednesday session, which turns around a morning trend like probing fresh lows post-open. Otherwise, an attraction back overnight lows could be avoided not only by opening above yesterday’s lows to isolate the overnight probe — or even by gapping up above Tuesday afternoon’s 2349.50 high to form a “session-long rally” setup — but by also extending higher through the open. Meanwhile, absent either of those two bullish setups, extending down could reach 2327.00 or 2317.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2335.50 would be likely to trigger the 2337.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2341.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] (Missing the first several sentences) if they declined where to extend it would next Target 23 2723 17th Okay so what about it is this Pro blower forgotten how much lower how little lower it is a probe under yesterday’s loads and today’s open is back above yes it was not just feeling positive territory but scrambling to get more positive through the open then that property is Lowe’s could be isolated to the overnight and that is very well know that setup is very vulnerable to extending a higher if that covers attempted but not excluded we’re just going right back down again attracted to the overnight tonight and maybe even renewing device down on the way to 2319 23 or 2723 yesterday afternoons or while leaving the bias environment while started laughing and we turned it down into the kitchen close at least so gapping up today back above that prayer High could form a session Long Valley set up as an aside noticeably that seems to have been possible as of yesterday’s clothes if it were so easy why did yesterday accomplish it just another reason why we’re looking for those overnight that’s attempted to explode and not successful kind of like yesterday morning yesterday’s open that jacked up even maintained its cap the prior Morningside just going to head right back down but actually open and there’s a normal 2367 7635 sequential on the dollar Index which I’m not really in favor of applying it to any kind of the basket regardless the dollar Index is tracking Tom DeMark sequential which is kind of similar to my up down crash set up his has a reversal set up as well that triggered I believe Friday not that it’s prevented extending any higher but just something to be aware of and here’s the Looney which came right back yesterday breaking little probing lower overnight itself having unfinished business below and the Euro can that be turned into an island not really looking like it will want to fill that Gap back to the open remember that we’re going to look at it Silverwood close the requirements eventually it’s a little bit here overnight so is the data feed apparently I have to proceed without the gold or silver charge the problem with the data feed a family on the longboard extending a higher because it’s extending higher just as much because it’s not rejecting yesterday’s extension up or breaking under its pull back limit at even challenging the back of it there is potential for the next time of jective 1:50 to 1:15 to go for already traded as high as 150 25 the proof will be in actually closing positive really not much of a dip into negative territory Infinity dip into negative territory can be tolerated if this pattern is trying to extend its recovery 4742 is go ahead and probing the lower end of last week’s Island this after one day of the test that Island’s lower Pryor High before bouncing and another dip fill the Gap back to the islands open after having touch Tire Pryor Lowe’s on the recovery and as warned when just that first dip to the lower price couldn’t recover into positive territory that probably met a full-throated retest of that Island in that we are probably lower so my signal is actually any kind of positive close at the very latest clothes back about the islands upper-end fingers crossed here okay it’s going to be a look at them so there’s the island there’s the retest of it slow what opportunity for this by the way is there a silver chart gold I finally natural gas light crude oil report EIA this morning so get that out of the way getting that out of the way I could be his favorite Monday’s close and close positive but it’s not exactly has been slow
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2354.25 | 2350.50 |
| …would target | 2361.00 | 2357.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.00 | 2337.25 |
| …would target | 2334.75 | 2331.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s pattern never broke its series of lower lows and lower highs, i.e. downtrend. Two attempts were made, at the noon hours entry and then at the afternoon bias environments exit. Both resolved down into fresh session lows.
Noon’s reversal attempt would have been doomed eventually, due to oversold RSIs at the morning’s low requiring an eventual retest. The afternoon’s reversal attempt would have been substantial, had it made itself obvious by the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Failing to exploit that all but required fresh session lows.
Futures ultimately recovered back up to 2342.00, not closing under the decline’s objective. Recovering it decisively would have been a reason to suspect Tuesday’s drop is temporary. There’s also the anchor at the open’s high, and Monday’s unfinished business above at 2380.00.
Could this be a Wreversal Wednesday? Often, the path up must first extend down. Extending down a little could bottom at 2335.50. Extending down a lot could reach 2327.00 or 2317.00. Two Fed speakers this evening might try talking up the market, or might facilitate testing lower targets overnight. Regardless, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon’s 2349.50 high after trending trended down into its close could form a “session-long rally” setup.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.