Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2354.25 | 2350.50 |
| …would target | 2360.25 | 2356.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2343.50 | 2339.75 |
| …would target | 2338.00 | 2334.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s bias-down signal was confirmed by probing under its pre-10:15 low. But its 2331.00 bias-down target was attacked to within 2 points before a sudden 15-point rally reversed the bias environment’s trend. Even that was too shallow to invalidate the bias signal, so 2331.00 is “unfinished business below.”
The afternoon’s 2336.75 bias-down signal was touched coming out of the noon hour. Sellers didn’t exploit the proximity and timing to trigger bias-down. Which buyers exploited by trending back up through the afternoon to probe the morning’s 2348.00 high.
Wednesday may seem to have fulfilled a Wreversal Wednesday setup. But its initial dip was briefer than the setup should have lasted, and its recovery was shallower. Already extending higher Thursday morning would still be credible for a bigger bounce. But a durable bottom would first hold a test of 2331.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s “outside day” was only narrowly so. It neither rejected Tuesday’s session to form an Island, nor did it extend higher. Gapping down Thursday would still form an Island. Meanwhile, the next higher objective in-play is 1.0900, so long as pullbacks hold 1.0750 as support.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gaining several dollars Wednesday to 1251.20 satisfies near-term buying pressure, while also confirming Tuesday’s breakout which requires an eventual third higher close. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold 1239.50 as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very narrow ranging Wednesday didn’t reject Tuesday’s close above 17.50, which has put into play a test of 17.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not reversing down Wednesday made the pattern likely to extend to its next higher target at 152-04, which was attacked to within 1 point and remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 150-15.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s probe under last week’s Island had become likely when Monday’s low only touched the Island’s “lower prior highs” instead of also filling either of its gaps. Closing back above Wednesday’s 47.75 low undermines the downside momentum. Wednesday’s opening gap down was retested intraday, so there is no “unfinished business below” if a rally were to begin, by closing back above 48.50.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Breaking lower at Wednesday’s open extended down intraday to close under the 3.08 pullback limit. One more lower close already would have greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness, but it is certainly not optimal strength. Closing under 2.99 would reverse the trend back down.
Mid-day Update… High hopes.
Morning recovery not yet rejected.
The session’s first hour had trended down from 2342.00 to 2333.00. Another 2 points lower was targeted for having triggered bias-down. But suddenly an 11-point spike up was revisiting 2342.00.
Whatever triggered that recovery remains unspecified. But it was apparently more bullish than London’s terror attacks were bearish. Consolidating amid the headlines eventually resolved by spiking up again, 9 points to 2348.00.
That was 6-8 points into positive territory. And it was too shallow to invalidate the bias-down, so 2331.00 is “unfinished business below.”
A descending triangle that formed into the noon hour broke lower to test the 2336.75 bias-down signal. It didn’t trigger. Its reaction up to 2344.00 is back to unchanged around 2341.00.
The rally’s catalyst probably isn’t the opposite of what triggered yesterday’s plunge. Whatever it is might not be enough to avoid fresh session lows, let alone extending down to 2327.00 or 2317.00. But exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs would get every benefit of the doubt for extending higher near-term.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 23, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Yellen appears pre-open as the session’s only influential event. The morning’s econ reports are at least high-profile. And the noon hour’s Fed speaker is too predictable to rely on influencing price action.
*Janet Yellen Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
12:00 PM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET