Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Restrained optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open attacked Sunday night’s 2368.75 low and held the bias-down signal. The offsetting test of the 2380.00 bias-up signal was left outstanding, despite rallying quickly to retrace all of Friday’s position-squaring window up to 2376.00. WedEX lapsed and price reversed back down into the noon hour and out of the afternoon bias environment. Sellers gained traction, but the final hour formed the basis for a trend reversal up.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially dipping to 2368.00 was recovered up to 2370.50 where a surge soon attacked Monday morning’s 2376.00 high. Ranging sideways through the night has been supported by the 2374.00 bias-up signal while probing above 2376.00.
If, then…
Rallying Tuesday morning requires invalidating the traction that sellers gained Monday afternoon, by gapping up above Monday’s high. that would also help to complete the trend reversal that had begun forming into the prior close. Any immediate strength must be maintained and preferably also extended through the open to be credible.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2376.00 would be likely to trigger the 2374.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2371.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Tuesday at Stanford Tuesday’s Morning Market to her and we have a opportunity here to Raleigh it is a little short of what’s necessary to have the highest degree of confidence the highest degree of confidence would be from exiting the open the opening 15 minutes of volatility about yesterday morning’s house 2376 just getting out about 2374 it happens me this one is by step signal that’s also the beginning of the range of resistance that if the opening were negotiating we give it a little benefit of the doubt depending on how much at already been extended that it were able to that it would be able to extend higher 2374 we’re being tested after coming down from 2380 that would be another story but otherwise this is what the market looks like coming into the open or forever good chance at extending them 30 open and extending hire in this picture extending higher to resume the rally from last week so I the fomc reaction that has been totally were traced and ultimately held or at least still being tested in yesterday’s clothes but never broken not yet that was in fact the one of too I guess but one biggest Missing Link two pronouncing the pool back since Wednesday as high as complete that is that the repeated probes under-23 7050 didn’t close decisively back above 2370 50 we did have a friend change start the form that’s the other missing link to yesterday’s pattern forming a bottom had a higher higher low never got a higher high not until overnight that’s not relevant though that’s why gapping up getting up above a prior Highwood turn that traction at Sellers gained into reversal up otherwise if I’m up here yesterday morning’s hold to the open 2016 2374 doesn’t trigger by ass up that’ll put into play at all sitting test of the 6475 biased and signal not a lot of support there really only temporary on the way to 6175 so this whole open getting out about 74 76 or not is the difference between retesting last week’s hives which by the way it gets us into the orbit of the highs out of that kind of upside or we’re heading down to 6175 and probably look alright any questions while we’ve got Lil Bit of a break under the rising wedge coming back to test a time to close back above 76-62 reverse we met them down call the pound which itself as a pretty bullish bottom headed to pull back overnight but you can see it’s a performing on the recovery extending the franchise Rudy and its range is still very volatile with unfinished Euro somewhat similar but you can see it’s been since the day just kind of eating its way flat to hire two flat still need what a world 107 106-95 to reverse the trend down let alone under one of the 760 to stand the uptrend that hasn’t happened since it’s been recovered and here like to pound it is extending the fresh High silver attacked 1750 yesterday gold attacked or overlapped at least 12 30 to 50 that this Gap up that’s extended out both of those representing significant resistance despite probing and reacting down and even a deeper reaction down overnight and gold 12:30 to 5033 Drive 3350 as far as a true fan noises being tested again break hired just seems the first of all it’s not required but because the Gap up hasn’t been rejected all this time it’s indicating that if it were not preventing there being a reaction that anyway but if it were we have confidence in it be covering meanwhile the ability is to the upside long Fun Center close today 14820 preferably positive above 149 wood Target 156 otherwise we raise the pullback limit to 4804 too long is one 4804 isn’t broken if you wanted treated as if it’s on the way to my crude oil in a Range this is made by the way it came back yesterday and basically neutralized the attraction below or some of it and touching the islands lower price the gap down to that Island open remains outstanding it still wants to be retested from above so that’s basically 48 and quarter didn’t get that the before bouncing yesterday and I’ll get overnight to neutralize the attraction above the Gap back to Fridays close that’s the durable bottom formation dip down before trying to extend the higher before creating too much excessive optimism basically inpatient Vine test that Island get that Gap open and probably because of the delay probe the lower end of them for more durable bottom that’s the bullish pattern that would help twice and when to recover the three bounce it extending higher he recovered it yesterday pretty much said new highs have to happen before the next possible download extending her overnight has to so this three is again a pullback limit until we actually I can’t raise the 3oh 3 but I would raise it to 303 actually printing our Post open and then the cell cycle would be raised to 299 alright go ahead and post them and I will see you at the open
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2377.75 | 2374.00 |
| …would target | 2383.75 | 2380.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2368.25 | 2364.75 |
| …would target | 2363.50 | 2359.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s attack on the 2368.75 overnight low had held its 2369.50 objective. Quickly reacting up to 2376.00 — retracing the open of Friday’s position-squaring window — was the extent of any residual bullish WedEX influence. It didn’t extend, but it left no unfinished business below.
That didn’t prevent probing fresh lows, anyway. Reversing back down into the noon hour and out of the afternoon bias environment probed lower and lower under 2370.50, the origin of Wednesday’s FOMC reaction. Closing back above it would suggest there’s no bullish reason to probe under it again. It was still being overlapped at the close.
The final hour did begin forming a trend reversal up. That’s not an optimal window, and only one higher high and higher low formed which is not an optimal reversal. Meanwhile, sellers gained traction, and could extend the decline to test 2342.00. Gapping up Tuesday above 2374.00-2376.00 would be a big step back to new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday morning’s extremely narrow ranging at Friday’s high gave way just a bit into the afternoon, still hovering dangerously close to the 1.0695 sell signal.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night firmed up to 1235.50 before dipping back into the range most of Monday. It was attack Monday afternoon by probing back above the 1232.50 gap up that had been tested already Thursday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 17.50 resistance that had held its brief test Thursday was retested Monday. Its recovery would target 17.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Never rejecting Friday’s recovery to the 148-20 bounce target, which had held its test Thursday night, enabled its probe to fresh highs Monday. Unless rejected soon and aggressively, the bounce can next extend to 150-06.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s gap down touched the “lower prior high” of Tuesday’s range, which had formed while Tuesday’s lower-end was fulfilling the 47.25 target. “Unfinished business above” at Friday’s close was then nearly neutralized, too. No further weakness is required before launching a corrective bounce.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night didn’t prevent Monday morning from rallying back above 2.95. And also back above 3.00 to require triggering the 2.95 sell signal Tuesday to avoid fresh highs.
Mid-day Update… Looking for influence.
Morning’s influence lapsed, none other yet appearing.
Was the bullish WedEX influential? A gap down did define the morning’s low. And its reaction did probe back into positive territory. That’s hardly optimal.
Regardless, any WedEX influence lapsed when this morning’s bias environment was exited.
RSIs diverged negatively at this morning’s 2376.00 high, which had room to react down to 2372.00. It was tested and retested, while the noon hour fluctuated 5-6 ticks either way around 2373.00.
So, this morning’s post-open bounce hasn’t reversed momentum up, and there’s no requirement to extend the bounce any higher. The next move is in search of sponsorship — whether that is to resume the morning’s recovery, or to resume the overnight drop, or to stretch the rubber band by testing either post-extreme before snapping back.