Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speakers litter this week’s calendar. But Monday’s dual appearance and Tuesday’s noon hour appearance will be overshadowed as the week wears on.
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2380.75 | 2377.00 |
| …would target | 2386.25 | 2382.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2373.25 | 2369.75 |
| …would target | 2367.25 | 2363.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Suspenseful suspension.
Gap down holds, bullish WedEX intact.
There was nothing bearish about the open’s pattern. It was not redundant to repeat the overnight low’s retracement to 2370 50, where Wednesday’s FOMC 
reaction had originated. Its retest targeted 2369.50, which was touched. And 1-minute RSI all but diverged positively on its retest.
Reacting up from both tests wasn’t bearish, essentially proving the level is relevant.
Even delaying the bullish WedEX influence wasn’t bearish. But it’s at least optimally bullish, so long as the opening 15 minutes of volatility did contain the low. A late push higher touched the 2375 75 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, and ultimately triggered it by a 2-tick 2-minute margin. Also not optimal. But also not bearish.
An offsetting test of the 2380.00 bias-up signal is now in-play.
The late push accomplished invoking a grace period. That gives the push’s sponsorship more credibility. Now, a fresh high above 2376.00 would be helpful, since RSIs diverged negatively there. Regardless, only fresh session lows could threaten to prevent 2380.00 from becoming “unfinished business above.”
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Self-correcting market.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday was full of twists. The morning’s drop to 2373.75 was overcome by the bullish WedEX, enabling the drop’s complete recovery. Friday afternoon’s no-bias trending up to 2382.25 probe had to be retraced back down to at least 2380.00. The power of expiration turned that into fresh session lows at 2372.75. The afternoon’s uptrend remained intact until entering the final hour, which is too late to gain traction, so I’m giving so the bullish WedEX influence a benefit of the doubt for remaining intact.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s late slide immediately resumed at Sunday night’s open, and soon extended down to 2368.75. That’s under the 2370.50 origin of Wednesday’s FOMC reaction. Firming back up there to greet Europe’s opens then extended back up to 2373.25. Its reaction down to 2370.50 has recovered back up to 2373.25.
If, then…
The bullish WedEX was fairly influential Friday. A more aggressive bullish influence Monday morning remains likely to influence post-open action this morning, too. But that bullish influence should be obvious without delay. Repeating the overnight test of 2370.50 could recover through the morning if the open were to gap down there. Otherwise, trending down post-open would be much more difficult to recover.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2373.00 would be likely to trigger the 2373.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2377.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Monday time for Monday’s Market to her what is have going on and I can we litigate the Saturday review we already knew it Fridays close that we had some interesting influences not the least of which is the bullish wed x regardless of how Fridays last hour turn down but it applies to Post open Monday morning as well and it was pretty influential Friday afternoon until there was no traction to be gained for the effort by sellers then took advantage of the open or that opening we now have some other said we had an influence or attraction back down to Wednesday’s fomc reaction the origin at 2370 50 likely to be probed by at least several ticks was probed overnight down to 69 6875 see it’s influential get on his pull back that could be repeated Post open that could be repeated Post open in the context of the bullish FedEx retaking regaining reasserting itself its influence Post open yes not only if the most likely if the open where to get down and quickly test 23 7050 if the open is a bug 2370 1523 70 15 and traction brings price back down through the open that’s going to be more difficult recovery if it’s going to be a recovery at all so no reason no requirement that is to retest 23 7050 Post open the Post open Action can become immediately influenced by the bullets wed x if the open where to eat s23 7050 getting it out of the way and holding it just as quickly as possible and preferably also exiting the opening 15 minutes volatility in some rally mode would be the next best thing as far as our having any degree of certainty or confidence that the markets rallied back influenced by the bullet watex and of course most bullish highest confidence 73 backup but more importantly the position Square it was entered around 76 the 310 320 window we really want to get some confidence going exit back above where the 310 320 window was entered 2379 that’s where we get the greatest degree of confidence if not to actually already have recovered this seems like a stretch by the way back above Friday afternoons High because having trimmed it down into Friday’s close getting up above the afternoon so I would cause a session Long Valley to form that’s a little let’s say a lot less likely having already extended down but it’s not like they’re all reopened influences there was just now comment crossing the tape that threesome and tends to I trigger Article 15 next Wednesday there’s some degree of predictability the mark of predictability a lot more than hates unpredictability by the way but there’s pretty good bility and I don’t see any reaction in the market that there at 8:30 that’s really it for the economic activity there’s potential but if 2370 50 isn’t holding through the open app is down signal23 7375 is triggered at 10:15 then rather than the bullish FedEx it’s too late to avert the wax that had to happen Friday the only thing that can happen to the text now as I can be invalidated or fail dipping down or tries we’re just going to turn down alright as well let’s get to other markets and I both have there in 2 ounces the Aussie by the way there’s one there’s a break out here 1235 Wednesday Thursday and at this stage the pullback limits tests have been produced basically a fresh High now become somewhat of a cell signal crude oil doesn’t have to pull back it is pulling back that it’s pulling back here it’s pulling back overnight 248 that it is pulling back into this island almost at this point but back to the Gap that it is pulling back after three sessions I know they can get anywhere but they didn’t get anywhere all this overlap this congestion rather than expecting Vine pressure overly optimistic bite pressure does suggest that this is able to form a bottom remember 4725 is our Louis Target and it was mad and it was held and it was responsive so good opportunity for a bottom in here that one up and then Natural Gas 295 cell signal broken not confirmed broken not confirmed Another Sunday night Gap this case down clothes under 295 again still not a cell signal you know to confirm all right questions in the chart room and I’ll see you there in 15 minutes before they open or if there’s any substantial action before then. Good luck today!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/18/17) …
Last week’s Saturday Review left us confident that the multi-session decline was ending. Which the decline then did. This week’s Saturday Review tells us why its recovery may have ended already. Which it probably has not. Specific setups greeting the new week are defined, along with their likely consequences, and where it all fits into the bigger picture.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FDX, MOV, AAPL, LEN, KBH, VRX, GDX, VZ, ADBE, ORCL
so we had a eventful week we’ve had a good deal of confirmation to the patterns that we’ve been monitoring go back to last week basically it take a look at where we left things heading into the weekend there been two consecutive higher closes in the context of an ongoing declined really just multiple consecutive sessions any bit of these elements on a continual basis lower lows levels lower closes everyday consecutively had that mall for succession that’s a lot of sewing pressure without refueling the refueling came in today but negative close if your negative clothes and finally despite getting a fresh blow intraday got a positive closed last Thursday so big feature to keep in mind about trending trending reversals really difficult to start a reversal to end the trend on the same day or at least that is the day following a fresh low without something else but haven’t happened in that so that’s why I’m last Wednesday we had a reasonable degree of certainty that the trend was extending and it did it has to except for one exception which is the abrupt introduction of new sponsorship instead of this sponsorship running out of steam being fully expended new sponsorship Russians in that’s in the form of the Gabba we got it all really in this spot as last weekend so we enter the weekend with a pretty high degree of confidence built on the high degree of confidence that we had any way that you don’t take a new high and immediately reverse Down Under lower prayer has this show for bass just wasn’t going to give away on its first hit important point to keep in mind first hit and that’s not to say this is the first and second it I’m going take a little longer than usual there’s one more couldn’t get because actually did develop on Tuesday it was contained and Wednesday ahead of them already if a better time to UFC news is that there’s been a breakout and a pull back pull back Target that had been met that’s where the news was greeted why we even entertain to buy signal of course we action pre substantial something to pay attention to hear as before we tie it all together and hear something to pay attention to hear this is the fomc reaction it’s a breakout session it’s the first close above multi-session range there’s another break a couple Wednesday’s prior that’s the reaction to the president joint Congressional speech tonight before that was a one-off no confirmation no second consecutive her clothes the following day is that a pattern here’s Thursday no second consecutive her clothes the following day third time it’s not really a charm and actually if we do see a third break out then we will have a high degree of confidence that it won’t be confirmed but in any case Thursday not event Friday kind of a non-event especially for being a expiration quadruple witching expiration if that come into this pattern on confirmation session on Thursday the set up into it the least likely scenario was for the balance of the session to just trade out and in the absence of breaking of the way before the close the following open was likely likeliest to Gap open and didn’t there’s going to be any time that the mechanics of the market override the normal patterns going to be expiration so it’s also interesting that expiration has traded out as well and I feel like I’m trying the morning drifted down help support the mornings buy a stamp signal the afternoon drift it up trigger no bias actually probe the bicep signal during the nobodies environment being no bias trending it required being retraced and it was a little bit deeper than it needed to be it was likely it was likely to return to 27225 it was likely to return to 2380 if not also 2379 it did that and didn’t stop and that brings us to looking forward never come back inside one more thing together about that Pryor High looking forward we had on Wednesday or bullish FedEx which is influential Friday afternoon and Monday morning now it when we say bullish we think more about this than we think of it like this the timing timing is almost everything in my work so it’s of course major interest as to when this actually became this so if the afternoon was a series of higher highs and higher Lowe’s may be influenced by the bullets wed x may be behaving as though according to the same input output in the bullish way that someone’s day or performing this way in tandem with the boy text whichever we’re going to give her the benefit of the doubt that the WebEx the bullets with ex is in play which is important because of the bullish FedEx is in play if the weather is in play influential will call it on Friday afternoon then it’s likely to be influential Monday morning to whatever degree it’s influential on Friday afternoon it’s likely to be even more influential in other words more aggressive on Friday morning that’s right Monday morning so that’s why we have to pay attention to this did this invalidate this or is this invalidated and it’s the latter this is invalidated as far as being able to invalidate the earlier bullish influence because of the timing it’s expiration day there’s the final hour by the time we eat before we enter the final hour or by the time we do it to the final hour the ongoing series of higher highs and lows remains intact it’s not optimal for sure but I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the bullish FedEx and if the bullish FedEx continues to be influential Monday morning then Post open Action should Trend up aggressively to the morning environment starting at 11:30 the one thing that is where the market will open because that influence applies only to Friday afternoon and Monday Morning Post open the interim reaction the interim price action in Europe can be anything and if it can be anything it can trigger a gap up or down in other words as impedes can trim down even deeper Sunday night greet the open with Monday’s open much deeper and then be influenced Again by the bullets would ex and Trend up to the morning or trim back up to the overnight actually be optimal suboptimal setup is to immediately invalidate whatever made that setup suboptimal what made this is setup suboptimal made it not optimal is that the final hour broke the uptrend so gapping up immediately to retrace that final hours drop would break that up trim or I’m sorry I reinstate that up to break that reverse that break now of course that’s not enough that would need the trend up as well through the open preferably exiting the open above a prior high for confirmation literally reject whatever this late so I’m pressure was because it’s not part of the greater influence some sort of a robe whatever noticed something else price action trimmed it down into the clothes exactly price action trended down into the clothes of an afternoon who’s prot who’s the opposite extreme if we trim down the opposite extreme is the high noticed it proceeded to 30 it was in the 1:20 to 2:30 window it develop during the bias environment so getting up not only back above that last hour segments of the decline but also back above the afternoons high after having trended down into the clothes would form a session Long Valley set up so is session long Riley says at whatever slope every time in window usually with one exception usually the noon hour will at some point probe the prior timing Windows High sounds like an uptrend it’s actually possible to do that each timing window probing the prior timing would have died and maybe have a series of horizon Harlow’s but not really Advanced rate for that if the bullets wed x is going to control this is just a rogue wave Friday’s late down leg then this should be done more aggressively Monday morning there’s also discounting for being over the weekend I tend to dismiss that over expiration because expiration is one movement that’s why they wed x applies to both the Friday afternoon and Monday morning why I can leap frogs over the weekend or basically ignore it so if we get a on Monday backup up Friday afternoon so I haven’t rented down into Friday’s close I’m going to give it every benefit of the doubt that it’s a session Long Valley set up and we’ll be monitoring each time in window for prior timing windows I and so one question maybe not so likely had a post expiration session it would be more unlikely less likely just a normal weekend but after expiration because of the two sections being tied together a setup and one much more often than any normal weekend can LeapFrog over that question should be in Monday and after the bullets way that she’s no more a factor and it Friday afternoon trending down is the movie Rush that’s a possibility because that’s final hour that otherwise invalid it then otherwise trended counter to the bullets wed x actually does invalidate or ultimately invalidates the bullish FedEx it’ll do that not just by tapping down or trending down into the open member the open the following up and can get down and still trimmed up because of the set because of the Red X influence the open the oven in 15 minutes about ility will need to trim down as well and the biased and Signal will need to trigger that’s a general statement about the bike down single triggering because we can get down under it if the buyers down Target is fulfilled but he’ll that’s not the Bears we can try and write back up to the bias down signal but the point being if there’s any reason that any lower Target is put into played by the open by the behavior of the open not just getting down that’s that does not put into play lower Target anything else so any other formation setup structure that would give more credibility to this Final hours reaction down and I wouldn’t be so quick to do that if the bullets wed x influence it actually produced a fresh pie not just broke the prior session so I this is the three minute chart again this is Friday looking at Thursday so not even the side just after noon should give that back less credibility that it can even develop into something more bearish there is any way an attraction remember we entered last weekend with a pretty bullish Outlook in that the I’m going to climb had produced two consecutive higher closes but even that didn’t prevent and wasn’t expected to prevent one more pull back which we got on Tuesday same thing here even if we have the most bullish Outlook that doesn’t mean that there can’t be one more pull back because we do have some kind of Unfinished Business it’s typical I don’t want to say traditional but it’s just typical that the origin of NFL on Siri action is retraced it’s off and retraced within a handful of days if not the following day that origin of course it 370 50 which I suspect will be a probe under 2374 the point being that there’s still an attraction outstanding does it have to happen intraday like it happened on Tuesday that’s Tuesday and have an intraday to pull back it doesn’t have to overnight is more than welcome to get that test out of the way maybe even get down to it having tested it overnight and having completed that pull back take off for the rest of the day or the rest of the morning that is who is no actual pull back limit that says this rally is done instead there’s a balance women that has yet to be exceeded to tell us that this rally this leg is durable why is that because that hi to Wednesdays ago two and a half weeks ago doesn’t actually require big were tested are a size ultimately were not over but simultaneously what is most attractive most of an attraction of this session structurally is its cap up above all prior hide that kept up wants to be were tested from Below and as soon as that’s the only structural elements calculations you know if we do we test Wednesday that Wednesday’s High the objective on that is 2401 if we do resume this rally its next Target is 2415 to their calculus AB of structure which is what is most important is that guy that wants to be retested from below its were tested here from Below but that’s not an arbitrary below originate from touching a prior sessions ring so not until these lower prioritizer touched would have bounced filling the Gap back to that Wednesday’s open not until then with that actually neutralize that attraction and as soon as those lower prayer Heiser touched the first opportunity actually neutralize that attraction was on Thursday Two Thursdays so that’s done there is no requirement to extend any other potential going a couple days without exploding that this upside attractions been neutralized couple sessions without explaining that we’re still in an upward tilt remains intact so I am looking for 2401 as I’ve been looking for looking for last week looking for that ultimately to recover putting out right now is that recovery was please let me know as far as other markets so as soon as we just stupid looking at who is this is the cash got that replacement haven’t really closed substantially higher but if closed but it bounced I enough to qualify as a 61 8 replacement ndx which is speculative index is come alive this is where this reflects more speculative activity even before Excellency in the last weekend we had a retest of the high the damning while significantly underperforming a not even getting to a 61 8 Richmond so as it fixed itself not necessarily there’s a there’s often a final coming together one final thrust we’re not going to see a substantial reaction down while in the ex is making my eyes though not a substantial reaction down that doesn’t recover but just another reason why I am still looking for a retest of the highs at the least and possibly even higher say another 20 points 20s points any questions please go ahead and post them