Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2383.50 | 2380.00 |
| …would target | 2390.25 | 2386.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2377.25 | 2373.75 |
| …would target | 2371.50 | 2368.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
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Friday afternoon’s 9-tick probe above its 2380.00 bias-up signal was required to retest 2380.00 as support, if not also 2379.00. Both were fulfilled going into the final hour.
But the bullish WedEX did not reassert itself. The reaction down extended, back to the morning’s 2375.25 bias-down signal. And through it momentarily, touching a fresh low under 2373.00.
The bullish WedEX had been fairly influential. Reversing the afternoon’s uptrend didn’t begin until the final hour, so the influence can’t be dismissed entirely. A more aggressive bullish influence Monday morning remains likely.
Nevertheless, no hold-long was considered, since Monday’s open isn’t prohibited from gapping down. WedEX influences post-open action only, so rallying would be more reliable at or after the open, instead of before it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
This weekend’s Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET. I’ll send links early in the morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing above Thursday’s highs widened the distance back down to the 1.0765 sell signal that would trigger a substantial reversal down, and possibly extend to new relative lows.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s ranging between persisted between 1225.00-1232.50. This avoided confirming Thursday as a breakout, and keeps open the door to testing “lower prior highs” so that a durable bottom can finish forming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s reaction down from 17.50 didn’t extend during Friday’s inside day, which makes the next higher objective at 17.90 unlikely to be met before “lower prior highs” are tested as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s test of the 148-20 bounce target had held its 147-24 pullback limit, which allowed Friday to bounce and retest 148-20. Closing any higher would suggest the correction was extending to the 150-04 area.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday was the third consecutive session of fluctuating narrowly around Wednesday’s gap up. Not yet extending any higher before filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s Island would likely form a durable bottom. Otherwise, extending higher first would next target 50.00 before being forced to fresh lows.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s second non-consecutive break back under the 2.95 sell signal didn’t extend down again Friday. But neither was 3.00 recovered, maintaining the distributive pattern.
Mid-day Update… WedEX time?
Still ranging, with the expiration influence.
Neither bias signal was touched in triggering no-bias this morning, and again this afternoon. Room down to this morning’s 2375.25 bias-down signal was utilized, eventually down to 2373.75 as the bias environment began lapsing. But trending up into and out of the noon hour has touched 2380.00.
2380.00 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal. It was touched well after having potential to trigger. So, like this morning’s bias-down signal, it should define one extreme of this timing window.
Unlike this morning’s extreme which reacted in the opposite direction, this afternoon’s bias environment should break. That would be the likely influence of the bullish WedEX.
Breaking above 2380.00 after the bias environment begins lapsing would be free to extend higher into the close. Simply absorbing any downdraft would fulfill the WedEX, and still be capable of extending higher aggressively Monday morning.