Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
No second consecutive lower close Wednesday under 1.0695 so no confirmation of Tuesday’s break. Instead, the more bearish scenario may be developing, with a probe above Monday’s high and potentially also a quick retest of Sunday night’s high up to 1.0865 that is quickly rejected.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1198.50-1209.00 range had persisted through the close, but now its upper-end was probed by a spike up in reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC news. A second consecutive close above the range, a positive close, would launch a rally leg and probably avoid fresh lows testing 1192.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday night’s bounce up to 17.05 was exceeded after Wednesday’s close in reaction to the FOMC news. There is room up to 17.80.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday extended Tuesday’s close above the 146-16 bounce limit up to the bounce’s 148-04 objective. Potential to higher highs to 148-20 or higher depends on pullbacks holding 147-11 as support.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having fulfilled the 47.25 target at Tuesday’s low, gapping up Wednesday to test 48.75 bounce limit is trying to form a near-term bottom. The gap up formed an Island of Tuesday’s range which can produce near-term corrective rally but not durable without eventually retesting the Island whether to complete a bottom or to seek out a new one lower.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday tested the 3.00 pullback limit as resistance that had failed to hold as support before breaking a little lower Wednesday. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from strength by sellers, but the uptrend’s traction has lapsed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 16, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Bank of England and Bank of Japan will react to Wednesday’s FOMC statement, and to its market reaction. Other high-profile reports follow, including the only Fed survey with a track record for influencing price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2375.25 | 2372.00 |
| …would target | 2380.50 | 2377.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2369.50 | 2366.50 |
| …would target | 2364.00 | 2360.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Half of half the battle.
Bias is up. Slope is unknown. Path is not assured.
The 2370.25 overnight high reacted down through the open to probe 1 point under the 2366.75 bias-up signal. The bias-up signal held through 10:15 to be triggered, putting into play its 2372.75 bias-up target.
Bouncing before the 10:15 bias timing window had been hovering at post-open highs, just under the overnight high. That was deceptively optimistic, at least restrained optimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Not triggering bias-up after testing it would have targeted a test of the bias-down signal. Already probing above the pre-10:15 high has made the bias-up target unlikely to be invalidated.
Another bullish behavior is that a reversal setup was avoided. Trending relentlessly overnight in a single direction to a fresh extreme is often reversed at the open. Maintaining the gap up can still be reversed, but it’s more likely to extend.
None of which changes that it’s difficult to attract sponsorship ahead of a weighty event like this afternoon’s FOMC. And none of which prevents an interim dip (drop, plunge, spike) from anxiousness ahead of the rate hike, or in reaction to it.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s 7-point drop from 2372.00 morphed into Tuesday’s opening 10-point drop down to 2355.00. That was the minimum requirement to retest at least the structure containing last Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 2351.00. The morning’s bias environment contained a trend change signal that recovered 8 points into noon at 2363.00. Its reaction down was recovered through the afternoon, still at least 8 points under Monday’s close..
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s recovery back up to 2363.25 has extended relentlessly. The first substantial pullback has come from testing 2370.00, stopping pessimistically short of the gap back up to Monday’s close. Anyway, its 3-point reaction down is as yet shallow enough to maintain the uptrend’s series of higher lows.
If, then…
Despite Tuesday morning’s trend reversal signal, the intraday recovery didn’t gain traction for its effort. Gapping up Wednesday could serve by proxy, if maintained through the open. This would allow Tuesday’s dip to qualify as a correction so Wednesday could resume Thursday-Friday’s two consecutive higher closes — resuming the rally requires no further delay, no need to back-and-fill. Last night’s rally is promising, but it may be over-promising. It’s still vulnerable to failing, and its failure could retest Tuesday’s low down to 2351.00. The wild card is sponsorship ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC, amid headlines emanating from the Dutch election..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2368.75 would be likely to trigger the 2366.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2362.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning it’s Wednesday and it’s time for Wednesday’s Market to very interesting Wednesday I think we’re already seeing no restraint on sentiment overnight that is yesterday’s drop with actually began Monday at Monday’s close that is dropping overnight into Tuesday’s open Tuesdays open then happily picking up the Baton and plunging and that resulting in a trench and said no just the ongoing series of lower lows and lower has suddenly getting way too high or high or low or high that’s the trim change there and what wasn’t super productive after that I mean initially it was productive but following that just maintain still closing negative so no traction game but the overnight action is trying to make up for that yesterday’s by did not gain traction for its effort despite the trenching signal then there’s two ways to resolve that bullishly one is to come back and we test that low and establish a more substantial bottom that low if it’s we tested by the way probably gets 251 or I take that on overnight if the new sponsorship didn’t arrive interdating indicate traction was being gay and then it needs to arrive overnight and GAP up above a relevant resistance there’s a couple here I’ll go over those in the moment but it’s not enough just to maintain it just a gap up but it all has to be maintained so the relevant resistance soon as we’ve got some preliminary indications for instance 6675 is the bias signal so exiting me up at about 6875 in this particular pattern at 9:45 would be likelier than two also exceeds 6675 at 10:15 and triggered by it’s up there’s a gap gaps actually back to Monday Monday’s close sorry Fridays close that 6850 cash 70 futures Monday’s close with Monday was covered irrelevant day anyway stopping pessimistically short of yet overnight and that’s 71 72 so there’s a number of different levels hear that you have tested Post open better be maintained through the 945 opening 15 minutes about Illinois to indicate that momentum is extending iron higher if so then traction is represented by last Thursday and Friday’s two consecutive positive closes in a downtrend can be resumed with God headlines coming out if you’re up for the future of euroscepticism that’s going to be influential we’ve got course in meetings I’m going meeting policy statement coming out this afternoon along with said Sherry Owens cordially Q&A just the most opportunistic trading environment in its wake any cycle that includes the that includes of course the fomc statement even employment situation so it’s coming out this morning already alright getting out of here otherwise Monday and Tuesday’s non extension Thursday and Friday’s to can positive closest get back on track with the two consecutive positive closes or dip back down if that Gap up can’t be maintained about some relevant high or level that’s tested Post open there’s potential for some of those lower price down here in the age range but not stable not substantial not enough to rely on them holding to avoid testing 51 last Thursday as well even in the most don’t think it can’t happen regardless of the overnight rally we haven’t yet seen any new spas and ship arrived Post open we have the opportunity because the market has an open intraday has an open and the new sponsorship that arrives after a Relentless overnight singular trend often is counter to that trend and with anxiousness ahead of the fomc what is starting to become a debate over whether it will be one quarter points are a half point I’m probably not as far as so even if it’s already discounted even if that little room for the head of that or even a negative reaction 2351 more attractive Monday’s crude oil which fulfilled yesterday it’s 4725 Target 4725 probe down to 4709 and you can see all the action I should get this 4725 interaction very clear lots of attempts to break down that door so that or this leg of the drop at least is done there’s a gap up here that wants to be filled that has to be filled before were testing yesterday’s open and neutralizing its attraction as far as reversing the trend up you know with 80 I reported yesterday everything this morning they’re still down some it up here at 48 70 brookley 2875 area and the natural gas bouncing natural gas can avoid closing above closing about 3 today then similar to or inverted from the bond description I just gave it CIA report tomorrow would be great if not for the position of strength that it had been working on for the last week but not yet at physician of weakness what would make this natural gas able to greet the I record from a position of weakness a second consecutive lower close today under 295 alright let’s go and I’ll be in there to respond officially no later than 15 minutes prior to the open or if anything else any other significant price develop okay really fun day today specially this afternoon good luck