Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2369.75 | 2366.75 |
| …would target | 2375.75 | 2372.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2361.75 | 2358.75 |
| …would target | 2355.50 | 2352.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday morning’s trend change setup from fulfilling 2355.00 had produced an 8-point bounce into noon. Its 2363.00 high was retested after recovering from the noon hour’s 6-point dip. Which was still at least 8 points under Monday’s close.
Tuesday’s dip can qualify as the correction of Thursday-Friday’s two consecutive higher closes (Monday’s close was technically higher, but its intraday pattern had rendered it irrelevant). If that was the correction, than resuming the rally requires no further delay — no need to back-and-fill.
Meanwhile, despite the low’s trend reversal, Tuesday afternoon’s recovery didn’t recover any prior highs. There remains a vulnerability to retesting Tuesday’s low, potentially probing under it to test 2351.00. Even that fresh low could recover to resume last week’s Thursday-Friday recovery — if it can prevent sponsorship ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC from pushing price over the edge.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to and through 1.0695 Tuesday morning is threatening to form an Island Reversal of Monday’s range. Its reversal down would be only temporary, unless an interim bounce were to probe back into Monday’s range — if not also back above it to at least 1.0765.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fluctuating around unchanged overnight was essentially repeated Tuesday without extending in either direction, leaving alive the potential for a fresh low at 1192.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight fluctuation around unchanged was repeated Tuesday morning, and improved to test 17.05, but not necessarily to close above it.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows overnight down to 145-26 reacted up into and out of the open to test 147-00. Almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher, but almost any delay in extending higher would be likely to retest Tuesday’s low.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Tuesday probed under the 47.25 target down to 47.09. The gap down reflects a degree of capitulation that may be bullish in the near-term from a contrarian perspective.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Attacking Monday’s highs before Tuesday’s open proved solid resistance, as the balance of the morning trended back down through the 3.00 pullback limit and under the 2.95 sell signal.
Mid-day Update… Crouching ahead of tomorrow’s news.
Waiting for a bias.
This morning’s probe under the 2358.00 bias-down target came too late to renew the bias-down signal. It was probed anyway, but several minutes earlier would have essentially targeted a complete retracement back down to last Thursday’s 2351.00 low
The probe under 2358.00 was actually a steep drop, and it extended down to touch 2355.00. That was the minimum qualifying retest of the structure at Thursday’s low. Its reaction up attacked 2364.00, retracing the open’s sell signal.
And it peaked at noon. A sudden plunge probed 2358.00, which the noon hour’s exit recovered up to 2361.00. But that’s short of triggering the afternoon bias-up. Back under 2358.00 would suggest 2351.00 is in-play anyway.; Back above 2364.00 would confirm the pullback had ended.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar would be considered a barrage of econ reports — mostly high-profile if not also influential to price action — even without the afternoon’s FOMC events. The policy statement is followed by the chairman’s quarterly Q&A, which has been a reliably volatile environment of opportunities to catch big swings.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET