Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2369.75 | 2366.75 |
| …would target | 2375.75 | 2372.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2361.75 | 2358.75 |
| …would target | 2355.50 | 2352.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias-down, down, down.
Consequences of delay.
The overnight dip down to 2366.00 had reacted up to attack 2370.00. Its recovery was the minimum requirement to even begin rallying immediately post-open. Anything less would likely back-and-fill, if not actually slide.
But price already started sliding well before the open. Dropping back down to 2362.00 was retraced almost 4 points pre-open, but a post-open slide attacked 2359.00. The 2358.00 bias-down target was attacked before triggering bias-down.
Probing it down to 2356.00 came almost immediately after 10:15, which is too late to renew the bias-down signal. This is still a bias-down environment. Oversold RSIs at the low doom any recovery attempt to failure. Potential extends down Thursday’s 2351.00 low whose RSIs also require a retest.
Testing the 2355.00 upper-end of the consolidation at Thursday’s lows might suffice. Back above 2363.75 would start to signal momentum already reversing up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Surging immediately at Monday’s open was morning’s the only credible path higher. But even surging immediately would be vulnerable to reversing back down. In fact, surging immediately to 2372.00 was reversed back down. Despite having peaked short of the bias-up signal, its reversal fell to the 2365.50 bias-down signal. The session’s only other opportunity to rally wouldn’t be until the afternoon bias environment exit, which did rally, but peaked upon touching the morning’s 2372.00 high. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was created.
Overnight action’s new info…
Reacting down without delay ultimately formed a narrowing range centered around 2370.00. Europe’s opens had only a delayed impact, if any. A 4-5 point slide touched 2366.00 and has quickly reacted up to attack 2370.00.
If, then…
Monday’s two no-bias signals and non-trending inside day bequeath Tuesday’s open with the same predictive criteria as Monday. Rallying immediately isn’t required, and isn’t required to extend, but it’s all but required if the morning intends to rally. And not rallying remains vulnerable to backing-and-filling, or even to retesting Thursday’s 2351.00 low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2370.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2373.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2368.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2364.50 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2373.25 | 2373.00 |
| …would target | 2382.00 | 2379.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2367.50 | 2364.50 |
| …would target | 2361.25 | 2358.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Has anxiousness ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting already begun to paralyze price action? Do HFT algos stay offline coming out of daylight savings adjustments as the market absorbs the circadian shock?
Monday was essentially a so-called nothing burger. Its positive close isn’t cumulative to the prior two for signaling strength. The inside day isn’t even contrarian, as no timing windows trended. Both the morning and afternoon’s no-biases triggered without touching either bias signal.
The same predictive behaviors defining Monday’s open can be applied Tuesday. A retest of Thursday’s low is still a risk. Resuming the rally is likely, regardless.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.