Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Yet higher highs Sunday night filled a four-week old gap outstanding at 1.0760 that should react down into at least a temporary dip, if not also start to reverse the recent uptrend back down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s probe above Friday morning’s high was retraced before Monday’s open. A fresh low at 1192.00 remains possible, but not required before closing above 1209.00 reverses the trend back up.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing Sunday night above Friday’s highs was retraced into Monday’s open, still needing only to close above 17.05 to at least begin signaling the decline is ended.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Monday prevented what would have been a premature recovery from refueling the decline. While there remains potential for extending to lower objectives, closing above 147-12 would at launch a corrective bounce having potential up to 148-22.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows Sunday night attacked the 47.25 target down to 47.90, which remains intact so long as bounces now hold any test of 49.95 as resistance.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The blizzard working its way into New England helped to produce another Sunday night gap up. Monday essentially ranged above prior highs. A positive close fulfills the minimum requirement of last week’s confirmed breakout, and back under 2.95 would reverse the trend back down.
Mid-day Update… Dry cleaners day?
Range bound morning is bleeding into a range bound afternoon.
This morning’s no-bias environment was entered without touching either bias signal. Not maintaining the open’s surge had marginalized the upside. That didn’t necessarily default to requiring a drop, but it allowed room to test the 2365.50 bias-down signal as support.
The bias environment started lapsing at 2365.50. Its reaction had room up to 2370.00 before starting to signal a new upleg underway. That’s where the reaction’s bounce peaked.
Now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. Without first touching either bias environment. Again. The “dry cleaners morning” appears to have bled into a dry cleaners afternoon.
Actually, that constraint can resolve when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing. A rally would become possible. Neither resolving nor rallying is required. And nothing in the pattern prohibits another drop that retests Thursday’s 2351.00 low.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar includes a high-profile and influential report. This filing of PPI may be even more so, being among the last to inform Wednesday’s FOMC decision — and the observation of pre-announcement sentiment.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2375.50 | 2372.25 |
| …would target | 2380.50 | 2377.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2368.50 | 2365.50 |
| …would target | 2363.75 | 2360.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stuck.
Friday’s highs holding.
Overnight highs were probed before the open up to 2370.50. A post-open surge touched 2372.00. That was half the requirement for rallying this morning. the other half was to maintain the surge, but it was quickly retraced to back under the overnight high.
Friday’s 2370.00 high ultimately held as resistance. This is a no-bias environment. And since neither bias signal was touched, no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required.
Fresh post-open lows have tested 2367.00. The 2365.50 bias-down signal could be tested, or even probed so long as its test were ultimately to define the window’s lower-end. Breaking lower later would open the door to attacking or retesting Thursday’s 2351.00 low.
Bounces meanwhile should hold 2371.25. Exiting the bias environment above 2372.50 would be credible for extending higher this afternoon.