Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging in reaction to Thursday’s ECB events went out testing the 1.0585 bounce limit. Surging Friday in reaction to payrolls probed fresh highs up to 1.0687, levels not seen in four weeks. A pullback has room down to 1.0625 before signaling the decline has resumed.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight under the 1198.00 objective probed down to 1194.50 and still had potential to 1192.00. But reaction to Friday’s payrolls triggered a surge to 1206.00. The session still ranged in negative territory back down to 1198.00, still having potential to 1192.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing overnight deeper under the 17.05 objective that was met Thursday did react up sharply to Friday’s payrolls report. But the blip-up into positive territory at 17.10 was reversed back down to fresh intraday lows testing 16.90, still a nickel off the overnight lows.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Choppy reaction to Friday’s payrolls report probed lower lows down to 146-13 while also bouncing briefly back into positive territory, suggesting this segment of the decline is waning.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The bounce from Thursday’s attack on the 48.55 target peaked upon testing the 50.00 bounce limit overnight and reversed back down entirely to fresh lows at 48.31. Closing above 48.55 doesn’t prevent extending to the next target at 47.25, but it does suggest the decline’s momentum is waning.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing even higher Friday threatened to essentially confirm Thursday’s breakout-type action above Tuesday and Thursday’s prior highs. The rally can extend to 3.15 unless a break under 2.90 were to signal the trend reversing back down.
Mid-day Update… Relentless overnight rally gone.
Bias-up environment’s lapse hasn’t been bullish.
The post-open pullback held one test of the 2365.75 bias-up signal. Then it was probed by 2 points, but only briefly as that also held through the bias environment.
Then the bias environment lapsed, and 2365.75 was no longer required to hold tests. The next test came during the noon hour, and quickly extended to test this afternoon’s 2359.75 bias-down target.
The bias-down target held its test to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. It’s still a bias-down environment, and remains vulnerable to extending down anyway. The eventual objective would be to retest oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2351.00 low. Probably not as one leg, i.e. not as an air pocket.
This being a Friday afternoon, sponsorship for trending tends to be difficult to attract. So, recovering back above 2365.00 would start to suggest momentum is reversing up. The next higher objectives starting at 2377.50 need not be tested today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or influential econ reports are scheduled for Monday, before attention begins turning to the week’s FOMC policy statement.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2376.00 | 2372.25 |
| …would target | 2382.00 | 2378.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2368.50 | 2365.00 |
| …would target | 2364.50 | 2359.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Wad blown.
Overnight highs never retested.
Firming off of 2370.00 had greeted the Employment Situation report. Its reaction surged to 2376.25. Drifting into the open still gapped up to 2373.50. But that was quickly extended down 6 points to 2367.75.
Which is still a bias-up.
Actually, the open had been retraced up to 2374.00 before 10:15. The 2370.75 bias-up target was also exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2377.50.
Which hasn’t prevented dipping deeper.
The 2365.75 bias-up signal was itself tested, and now retested by 1 point. “Counter-bias trending” is doomed to failure for originating during a bias-up environment. Meanwhile, there’s room down to lower prior highs and a gap in the 2361.00-2363.00 area.
Back above 2368.25 would start to signal momentum reversing up, which could extend through the noon hour.