Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Gutsy time to try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open isolated an overnight probe under Wednesday’s range, quickly extending up to 2366.00. It quickly peaked and ranged sideways through the noon hour The afternoon’s bias environment was a 12-point plunge that probed under the overnight low down to 2351.00. Being sponsored by weak hands, it was retraced entirely through the close to its 2363.00. Oversold RSIs was left outstanding at the low, and the ongoing downtrend was maintained. But it was the first positive close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late recovery extended relentlessly back up to and through Thursday’s high. Several hours of a narrow 6-tick range at Wednesday’s 2370.00 high greeted Europe’s opens which triggered a surge to 2373.00. A dip to 2370.00 was briefly retraced entirely.
If, then…
No traction was gained by yesterday afternoon’s recovery, so gapping up is the only credible way to rally this morning. Gapping up would also help to break the attraction to retesting yesterday’s low. Not just gapping up, but also maintaining the gap up through the open. Two big challenges to that. First, a lot of buying pressure is being expended already, by trending up relentlessly overnight, and by probing two session highs. Second, extreme optimism ahead of an event like this morning’s payrolls can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. A knee-jerk reaction down can still recover enough in time for Friday Factors to trigger a short-squeeze into the weekend. Friday Factors can cut either way, so not maintaining a gap up can find today’s focus suddenly shifting to retesting yesterday’s low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered before an Employment Situation report.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] Alright good morning and welcome it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market to her we’ve got the employment situation report schedule for pre open about an hour from now and we have an ongoing downtrend multi-session to clean off of last Wednesday’s High series of lower lows and lower highs intraday relentlessly testing lower Pryor has from the prior week somewhat relentlessly finally breaking that Trend in one regard yesterday not the lower lows and lower house but actually closing positive every other session maybe not the second in the series that was flat this was the first positive close as opposed to negative closes all on the way and that indicated that at least sellers weren’t making any substantial inroads despite probing lower it’s still not reversing the trend an overnight that has already had an impact that positive close in the downtrend for the first time in 6 days has already had an impact on price by producing a rally first to 2370 testing Wednesdays resistance and then to 2373 briefly once we flee again so there’s potential here to Gap up yesterday’s buyers despite rallying into the clothes didn’t gain traction for their efforts being and I’m going down to it would discuss this every day the Lord has the only way to to reverse that is first to retest the well or to Gabba so if the Gap up can be maintained we can start and get substantially well on the path to the tracing the past weeks to climb member it’s Friday in there are Friday factors like that are driven by the impending everyone’s minds or at least has other issues brought to the Forefront driving decisions that are as prevalent earlier in the week and they can result in the shorts can result in the office as well trying to Gap up isn’t maintained testing prior has any prayer hi that’s tested through the out during the open if it’s not maintained through the open it’s a good and we could be off to the races today was and there is that looks like Broadway what is over-extended I should say is the market as of the decline is if there’s a negative need your creaction down that doesn’t extend that reacts backup for covers just a blip down that greets the open in gap upload entirely capable of having corrected itself and being on the road to extending higher so what’s up the pound still still waiting here right around 1 2170 back to 122 it was the target area of this break probing Lowe’s not closing lower also not yet rejecting that that is a reasonable setup for a bottom so I’ve seen any behavior in the loony and we do kind of have a set of clothes from multi-session rain and then the euro I came of that parallel uptrending support spiked up on the ECB news yesterday only two once again go out ranging around the balance on that 105-85 putting on a good show overnight we’ll see how Bears against employment report 9859 which would qualify for for ending the decline for satisfying pressure except not likely on Friday so we had talked about room down to Below in fact we’ve extended to 9450 already so I suspect you’re headed into as well and I can’t really look at the bottom silver which tested its 1705 4711 crude oil confirmed today would be bullish that puts a lot of pressure on sellers on this barrage pattern to reassert itself if this Barry’s battery asserts itself because it’s on the precipice of being thoroughly invalidated by are closed today it oughta be a pretty spectacular invalidation so be careful of that and if the cell cycle triggers should be pretty aggressive right I’m going to be recording here and I’ll be commenting on or at least annotating the employment situation report and then see if the open right everyone good luck today oh don’t forget Saturday review tomorrow
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2369.00 | 2365.75 |
| …would target | 2373.75 | 2370.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2359.25 | 2356.25 |
| …would target | 2353.25 | 2350.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, EXCEEDED BIAS-UP TARGET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Plunging 12 points to Thursday’s low was not produced by strong-handed sponsorship. It was in reaction to a headline. And it was likely exacerbated by anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Recovering the entire slide into the close was not produced by strong-handed sponsorship, either. Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report kept price range bound, with plenty of room to bounce.
But new “unfinished business below” was created at the 2351.00 low’s oversold RSIs. And “unfinished business above” remains outstanding at 2374.50. “Lower prior highs” have been tested yet again, and this time recovered to close positive.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up in reaction to Thursday’s ECB events was retraced back under the 1.0585 bounce limit but still held 1.0570 whose break should resume the decline targeting 1.0470..
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows extended the decline to probe under its 1208.50-1209.00 objective Thursday down to 1201.00, next targeting 1198.00-1199.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline extended overnight and into Thursday morning to fulfill the 17.05 target. It wasn’t rejected, so probing it is likely.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s 148-04 bounce limit test was retraced overnight and fresh lows were probed Thursday morning on the way to an afternoon drop testing 146-20. January’s low is now being probed, next targeting 146-00 and potentially 144-00.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight extended Wednesday’s plunge to attack the 48.55 target to within a nickel. A corrective bounce is increasingly possible ahead of the 47.25 target.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already firming through Monday’s 2.95 high, Thursday’s EIA report triggered a slight knee-jerk reaction up. Its retracement was recovered to a fresh high at 2.98, but 2.95 was still being tested into the close.
Mid-day Update… Still stuck.
Ranging gets blind-sided.
Recovering into and out of the open hasn’t amounted to much. Stopping 1 tick of the morning’s 2366.50 bias-up signal prevented putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. But the no-bias environment and noon hour only ranged +/- 2 points around 2363.00.
And now a headline has triggered a 5-point plunge to probe the post-open low, 2 ticks short of the 2357.50 bias-down signal. This is during another no-bias environment, so the low’s retest could serve as this window’s low.
Retesting the low can also serve as a bottom, but will it. It would be the first post-open print under yesterday’s low. The open had isolated the overnight lows, which is not a buy signal, but good soil for one.
Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report may inhibit trending this afternoon. So, trending back up to this morning’s highs is likelier than breaking lower. However, exiting the bias environment and still defending against a break lower ahead of news would be difficult to recover.