Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: February’s Employment Situation report is the morning’s only scheduled release, so its reaction could continue being influential through the morning.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2369.50 | 2366.50 |
| …would target | 2375.00 | 2372.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2360.50 | 2357.50 |
| …would target | 2355.25 | 2352.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging out.
Draghi spoke, futures spiked.
Structurally, the overnight pattern tracked another bottoming template by probing under Tuesday night’s 2356.50 low. Opening back above yesterday’s lows essentially isolated the probe to the overnight.
Calculably, fresh lows touching 2354.50 would have been optimal before rallying. But not necessary — there is no unfinished business below.
And there’s no new unfinished business above. The 2366.50 bias-up signal was not touched. So, it didn’t trigger and it wasn’t rejected. The bias-up signal should defined the morning’s upper-end if it is tested.
Exceeding the 2366.50 bias-up signal through 10:30 would invalidate the no-bias that triggered at 10:15. A rally would then be credible. Probing it after 10:30 could extend higher, too, but as no-bias trending which is doomed to failure.
The only other bullish template would simply slow-play the recovery. Hovering at post-open highs until the bias environment begins lapsing would then be postured to extend higher into the afternoon.
Back under 2360.50 would instead start to suggest fresh lows — e.g. 2354.50 — are in-play.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
REMINDER: The ES front-month rolls forward at Thursday’s open to Jun, which is trading at a 3.00-3.25 discount to Mar. So, Tuesday night’s low touched relevant support at 2356.50 (basis Jun, 2359.50 basis Mar). The bias parameters are quoted in Jun… Yet more fresh lows had been probed Tuesday night, to the next lower objective at 2356.50 (basis Jun, 2359.50 basis Mar). Rallying from there isolated the probe under Tuesday’s lows to the overnight, opening back above Tuesday’s lows at 2367.00. But extending another 3 points higher held the bias-up signal instead of triggering it. The balance of the session trended back down to 2357.75 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last pattern had resembled an inverted Head & Shoulders, which I had dismissed for its undeveloped head and oversold RSIs. Ranging flat-to-higher overnight did attack 2364.00, but that has been reversed to probe back under yesterday’s late lows down to 2356.75. That’s 1 tick short of touching Tuesday night’s low.
If, then…
Are five consecutive sessions of lower lows about to break through six consecutive sessions of lower prior highs? Retracements often test lower prior highs before resuming the trend. That’s usually done within 1-2 sessions. But the last three sessions have been testing those lower prior highs, reacting up only temporarily. And now Tuesday’s night’s low is likely to be probed by a couple of points. Suddenly plummeting Crude Oil has been influential, as has been anxiousness ahead of this morning’s ECB rate decision / Draghi press conference. My Crude Oil targets are still lower, but a corrective bounce should begin by this afternoon. And the ECB event is likely to be benign, so getting it behind us could be a relief — as in relief rally. But look out below if not, and if early selling isn’t easily absorbed.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] NOTE: I’ve lowered the bias-down target, and recalculated the SPX spread… Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2356.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2355.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2354.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2370.00 | 2366.50 |
| …would target | 2375.50 | 2372.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2358.75 | 2355.25 |
| …would target | 2353.50 | 2350.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.