Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The ES front-month rolls forward at Thursday’s open to Jun, which is trading at a 3.00-3.25 discount to Mar. So, Tuesday night’s low touched relevant support at 2356.50 (basis Jun, 2359.50 basis Mar).
Wednesday afternoon’s dip touched the morning’s 2360.75 bias-down signal, which had become “unfinished business below” that morning. Tuesday morning’s unfinished business above remains outstanding at 2374.25. The next higher objective would be to test last Wednesday’s 2378.50 opening gap up. Retesting last Wednesday’s high would have room for noise up to 2402.50.
Extending higher from this pattern remains possible. Less possible Thursday than it was Wednesday and Tuesday, which had closed back within their prior sessions’ lows. Wednesday did not, instead trending down to 2357.75 before the close. However, overnight lows held the late attack.
Having trended down essentially into Wednesday’s close, gapping up Thursday above Wednesday afternoon’s ~2369.00 bias environment high could form a “session-long rally” setup. is meanwhile chipping away at the support of “lower prior highs.” Another fresh low at 2354.25 could still be absorbed through a timing window’s exit. But that’s so far from optimal, it might as well be a sell signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Breaking lower Wednesday probed uptrending pivotal support and its parallel uptrend line off the low, still needing a second consecutive lower close to confirm 1.0470 is in-play.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already slipping yesterday under the 1218.00 target, Wednesday extended down to the 1209.00 objective. Its second consecutive lower close under a multi-session range requires at least an eventual third lower close. Also, the next lower objective is 1198.00-1199.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing Wednesday under the .17.55 target that was met at Tuesday’s lows has essentially put into play 17.05. A second consecutive lower close also puts into play at least an eventual third lower close
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging at the week’s lows all but required extending the decline aggressively without delay, which Wednesday’s gap down did. Bounces must now hold 148-04 to maintain the next lower objective under January’s lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap down rejected Tuesday’s retest of the 53.58 sell signal as resistance. This was despite having neutralized the attraction below by filling the gap back at Monday’s close. Extending down anyway suggests sellers are strong-handed, and next targeting 48.55 and 46.25.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap down into the 2.83-2.86 sell signal may have been only a warning shot, as Wednesday’s open gapped up into Monday’s range. The gap back up to Monday’s close was filled back up to 2.90 and extended higher intraday to Monday’s 2.95 high, neutralizing its attraction above. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from the position of strength that is otherwise suggested by sitting at recent highs.
Mid-day Update… Two steps forward, one step back. Again.
Recovering dips, but not stopping them.
Fresh post-10:15 lows weren’t necessary for the morning’s 2363.75 bias objective to become “unfinished business below.” But the bias environment exit to slide 6 points, anyway, to 2165.50.
Coming to at least within 3 ticks of 2363.75 would have neutralized it. But bouncing into and out of the noon hour tested the afternoon’s 2371.50 bias-up signal.
Isolating the probe under the open’s low to the noon hour is a less predictive version of isolating the overnight dip under yesterday’s lows. Neither reverses momentum up without also triggering a buy signal, but they do offer context to selling.
Triggering late no-bias isn’t required to trend back down from the bias-up signal. Hovering here until the bias environment begins lapsing could still launch a rally into the close (and through tomorrow morning). Not holding a test of 2363.75 as support would next target 2357.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, but even its high-profile items have no track record for influencing price action. Following the 30-year auction’s results, afternoon volatility may become subdued ahead of the next morning’s payrolls report.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2371.75 | 2371.50 |
| …would target | 2377.75 | 2377.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2365.00 | 2364.75 |
| …would target | 2359.25 | 2359.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.