Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Try, try again.
Early recovery falls flat.
This morning’s rally from 2366.25 attacked 2375.00. RSIs diverged negatively, so calculable resistance there launched a pullback. That much was anticipated. Retracing substantially all of the rally was not.
The bias environment exit at 2367.00 was retraced up to 2372.00. Still testing the 2371.50 bias-up signal at 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias.
None of which is necessarily bearish. Triggering bias-down would have contradicted the bottoming template. But there’s still time to rally out of the afternoon bias environment, as any further delay would be very suspicious, and very vulnerable to extending down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 8, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Feb’s payrolls were delayed one week. ADP’s report will give us a glimpse of sentiment ahead of the event.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2372.25 | 2371.50 |
| …would target | 2378.25 | 2377.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2368.00 | 2367.25 |
| …would target | 2362.50 | 2361.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bottom’s up.
Extra dip delays ultimate bottoming pattern.
Pre-open selling had pierced the overnight Globex session’s initial 2370.50 low, touching this morning’s 2370.00 bias-down signal.
I wanted it touched post-open, too — and preferably pierced by at least 1 tick — before being confident it wouldn’t trigger.
The open did pierce it by 1 tick, and then snapped back up. But only momentarily ahead of a 5-point drop. Although not required, yesterday’s low was pierced by 3 ticks down to 2366.25.
There was news: a security incident at or near the London Bridge / subway station. Presumably, anxiousness had triggered the extra dip. At least, that’s what I presumed.
In fact, 2370.00 was touched just in time to invoke the grace period. “Late no-bias” triggered at 10:30, already having surged up to 2373.50. And that was exceeded momentarily by another point.
An offsetting test of the 2377.50 bias-up signal is in-play. A test of 2381.50 is also likely at some point, to whatever degree. More importantly, the bottoming template we’ve been tracking remains intact.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Slow-playing the recovery?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s slide probed under Friday’s lows to fulfill downside attractions at 2372.25 and 2368.50. The probe also began tracking a bottoming template that had begun with Friday’s failure to recover from fresh multi-session lows. The template continued tracking with Monday afternoon’s recovery to fresh session highs at 2378.00, closing above the morning’s high. And the recovery gained traction through the bias environment exit and the proxy window trending. Monday’s close was still negative, which isn’t necessarily bearish, but a recovery isn’t yet reliable..
Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping 3 points into Monday’s 2375.00 cash session close extended down to
2370.50 at the Globex open. Bouncing 5 points to test 2375.00 as resistance has reacted down to within 1 tick of the Globex open’s 2370.50 low.
If, then…
Resuming the rally doesn’t require gapping up this morning since yesterday’s rally gained traction for its efforts. Gapping down would still be likely to recover. Trending down through the open — or triggering bias-down — would make a recovery difficult. A recovery’s first objective is to test 2381.50, and extending higher would eventually target 2404.50 and 2418.00. Resuming the decline would instead target 2364.00-2365.00 below.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2368.50 would be likely to trigger the 2369.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2372.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.