Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2378.25 | 2377.50 |
| …would target | 2384.50 | 2383.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2370.75 | 2370.00 |
| …would target | 2365.00 | 2364.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
What should have happened Monday, did, whether to end the pullback or to extend the decline. Unfinished business below was neutralized at 2372.25 and 2368.50. Potential to lower lows was rescued by exiting the bias environment high enough.
What could have happened for extending the decline did not happen, since all unfinished business below is neutralized. And what needed to happen for reversing the pullback may have begun. The afternoon’s rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour and then trending to fresh highs through 3:10-3:20.
Monday’s close was still negative, but that’s not necessarily bearish. Last Tuesday’s negative close reflected a vacuum back up to unchanged, which was leveraged into a gargantuan rally. After recovering 2381.50, extending higher would encounter resistance on the way to objectives at 2404.50 and 2418.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing slightly higher Sunday night was retraced briefly to test the 1.0585 bounce limit as support. Monday’s open had recovered it, but the bounce was reversed back down to all but resume the decline .
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight stopped slightly short of 1238.00 resistance. Its recovery would have signaled the decline had ended short of fulfilling its likely 1218.00 objective. Reacting down into negative territory at 1225.00 maintained the decline’s momentum.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s bounce was erased through Monday morning to hover optimistically at or above 17.75, still likely to test fresh lows at 17.55.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun, which trades at a 1-08 discount to Mar] Bouncing Sunday night tested 149-24 (basis Jun, 151-00 basis Mar) resistance into Monday’s open, before reacting back down to last week’s lows, likely to extend down as the trend change remains in effect.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday morning’s bounce attacked the 53.58 sell signal but reacted back down to 53.00, where another break to fresh lows Tuesday would be likely to extend down intraday.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Room up to 2.86 was gapped over at Sunday night’s open. No new sponsorship was attracted to extend the rally, as price fluctuated narrowly through the day.
Mid-day Update… Paradigm shift.
The pullback seems to be done.
“Unfinished business below” from Friday at 2372.25 was met by Sunday night’s plunge. “Lower prior highs” at 2368.50 was met overnight and by Monday’s opening dip. Fresh lows later probed down to 2367.00.
Exiting the bias environment back above the 2368.50 bias-down target robbed the decline of its momentum. Potential for extending down to 2364.00 may be neutralized. All downside objectives are now neutralized.
Is the pullback done? Entering the noon hour above another the morning’s 2375.00 bias-down signal would have been optimal confirmation. It was eventually touched along with this afternoon’s 2375.25 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. They’re being probed by more than 1 point.
So, the grace period is invoked. Exceeding 2375.25 through 1:30 would trigger late bias-up. Holding its test could delay extending higher for another hour, assuming 2374.00 had held tests as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 7, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or influential econ reports are scheduled for Tuesday, before attention turns to Feb’s payrolls before the weekend.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET