Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2376.00 | 2375.25 |
| …would target | 2382.00 | 2381.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2367.00 | 2366.25 |
| …would target | 2360.25 | 2359.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Satisfying sellers.
Probing under last week’s lows.
Retracing the overnight bounce to 2376.25 greeted the open under Thursday night and lows. The probe under Friday’s intraday lows would not be isolated to the overnight. An intraday test of 2368.50 became likely, making early-entry compelling.
The open did extend down quickly to touch 2368.50. Only 3-minute RSI became oversold before its reaction bounced up to test 2373.25. The 2375.00 bias-down signal was triggered easily.
2368.50 is being probed down to 2367.25. That wasn’t necessary, so its retest is likely to be probed down to 2364.00-2365.00.
Regardless, now that Friday’s low is being probed, there is potential for this morning to contain the pullback’s low. Not bottoming today would suggest a much deeper pullback underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening 3-point surge to 2282.00 was reversed by a 7-1./2 point plunge that attacked the 2373.75 overnight lows to within 2 ticks. So, its 2372.25 late bias-down target became “unfinished business below.” Trending back up to probe a couple of points above the morning’s high was interrupted once by a wide swing between 2276.00-2281.00 that suggests volatility is expanding. But a sell signal came too late to produce a break back under Thursday’s 2280.25 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The bullish scenario that I described in Friday’s Market Wrap is trying to play out. Trump’s Saturday morning tweets may take some credit, undermining his legislative agenda, including tax reform that inspired much of the rally. North Korea firing four rockets stirred the pot. Either catalyst will suffice. Sunday night’s open plunged to 2 points under Thursday night’s 2373.75 low, and quickly bounced back up to it. Hours of ranging there narrowly greeted Europe’s opens, where a new dip touched 2268.75. Now its reaction up is testing 2276.00.
If, then…
A fresh low became likely after Friday’s failure to reverse its fresh trend lows back above the morning’s high. And while a shallow dip to 2372.25 could have resolved the pullback, the delay would likely be compensated by extending down to 2368.50. Which has been tested to within 1 tick. Isolating it to the overnight would likely reverse momentum up, potentially extending to new highs targeting 2405.50 and 2418.00. Otherwise, not already recovering at the open should extend down to test 2364.00, too.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2377.75 would be likely to avoid triggering the 2375.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2373.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] Sorry, the online dictation facility was not responding this morning.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/4/17) … Fewer and further.
Expressions of optimism have become fewer, and further between. And whether as recoveries from dips, or as breaks to fresh highs, optimism lacks a consistent productivity that is common for a healthy advance. None of which matters much in the near-term when there’s still an occasional super-sized rally — like Wednesday’s — which creates a lot of room for two downtrending sessions to barely retrace 61.8%. The observation may sound more immediately ominous than it yet deserves. But it still warns traders not to rely on runaway longs, and not to shun shorts.
This week’s Saturday Review identifies price levels where the pattern would be vulnerable to peaking, and where another sporadic surge to fresh highs could reach safe haven — temporary as it may be. Along with subscribers’ Q&A, the pattern’s possible shapes and timing are also described in detail for the coming week, which culminates in the delayed monthly Employment Situation report.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
DKS, MIK, NAV, URBN, BOBE, CIEN, HOV, IGT, SIG, MTN, AAPL
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!