Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2383.75 | 2383.00 |
| …would target | 2388.75 | 2388.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2375.50 | 2375.00 |
| …would target | 2369.25 | 2368.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday Factors helped to set a floor Friday morning. The open’s 3-point surge to 2282.00 was reversed by a 7-1./2 point plunge that attacked overnight lows to within 2 ticks. We know that recovering from a probe under the overnight low would form a more credible bottom. But that didn’t entice Friday’s fickle sponsorship to maintain control.
The morning’s 2372.25 late bias-down target became “unfinished business below.” Recovering to within 2 points of the open’s 2282.00 high suddenly found great volatility between 2276.00-2281.00. But the overnight and post-open decline’s never resumed. The balance of the session blipped-up to and slightly through 2281.00, where the session closed.
I describe in the Market Wrap video why the pattern suggests that even the most bullish resolution will likely be preceded by a fresh low. That fresh low may be isolated to the overnight. It could take longer if the 2372.25 bias-down target’s delay has made 2368.50 or 2364.00 likely, too. Of course, gapping up Monday above 2288.25 would suggest new sponsorship has arrived already.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us for this weekend’s Saturday Review at 9:30am ET in the chaRTroom. Reminder links will be sent early-morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday held its test of Thursday’s gap down, maintaining the decline’s 1.0470 outstanding target.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s break under the 1241.00 sell signal and 1238.00 confirmation probed lower overnight and extended Friday morning to test prior lows down to 1223.00. Back above 1233.00 is the minimum requirement to signal momentum reversing up.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s plunge barely bounced overnight before probing lower Friday morning to test 17.70 support. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close would avoid requiring at least a third eventual lower close, but the pattern does not appear capable otherwise of avoiding that.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having confirmed the trend change with Thursday’s second consecutive close under 151-11, Friday drifted to fresh lows under 150-00 into the weekend. Under 149-22 would confirm the drop targeting 148-02 is underway.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s break under the 53.58 sell signal came at a point in the pattern that could be very bearish if confirmed, but Friday’s bounce is avoiding a second consecutive lower close. The default is not necessarily bearish, and the pattern remains vulnerable to probing fresh lows Monday.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming slightly Friday to test 2.82 resistance still has room to test 2.86 while still being required to probe under the prior week’s overnight 2.64 lows.
Mid-day Update… Down isn’t done.
Noon hour bounce fizzles.
This morning’s 2378.50 bias-down triggered late, but it triggered. Its 2372.25 bias-down target was attacked to within 6 ticks, but it became “unfinished business below.”
Bouncing into and out of the noon hour got a boost from Yellen’s remarks. A spike down to 2376.00 blipped-back up immediately to touch 2381.00. But the blip-up has been retraced entirely.
It’s too late to trigger bias-down under 2375.00. Probing under it during the no-bias environment isn’t likely. But it’s possible, and its “no-bias trending” and required to recover, which would not be inappropriate since fresh lows are likely to recovery anyway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The post-open Factory Orders has no track record for being influential. Not necessarily this month. Being Monday’s only high-profile report, and almost its only report, any surprise could have a disparate impact on price action. The afternoon’s Fed speaker may keep things lively into the close.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
3:00 PM ET