Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2382.25 | 2381.50 |
| …would target | 2388.00 | 2387.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2375.75 | 2375.00 |
| …would target | 2369.25 | 2368.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Friday factors bearishly.
Weak attempt to isolate sellers has marginalized buyers.
Probing lower overnight at least touched the upper-end of the 2372.25-2373.75 objective. This created an opportunity to reverse momentum up. 
But the open needed to have recovered already back into Thursday’s range.
Isolating sellers to the overnight that way would have allowed a rally this morning. Not trying to isolate sellers still could have rallied, perhaps by holding a test of the bias-down signal.
But trying to isolate sellers and failing has only marginalized buyers. The open’s blip-up to resistance at 2181.50 resolved down to test the 2378.50 bias-down signal. The grace period it triggered resolved down to attack the overnight low.
Now another bounce is starting to resolve down. The 2372.25-2373.75 objective’s lower-end is also this morning’s bias-down target. Lower objectives would be put into play at 2368.50 and 2364.00 if the bias-down target fails to hold.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post Sorry, technical error today…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Overnight weakness had extended post-open to trigger Thursday’s 2389.25 bias-down signal. Failing to limit a temporary pullback to 2387.25 had put into play lower objectives. Opportunities to negate the extension failed, the last being a surge to 2388.00 that only stretched the rubber band for a 10-point drop to 2378.00 at the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s last drop to 2378.00 was initially consolidated into a Descending Triangle. Its eventual break fell relentlessly until touching 2373.75. Bouncing less than 3 points was retraced entirely, but the low’s retest reacted up to attack 2379.00.
If, then…
Overnight lows have at least touched the upper-end of the next lower objective in-play at 2372.25-2373.75. If a shallow pre-open bounce from its test proves premature, then resolving down could hold the objective’s lower-end. And extending deeper would next target “lower prior highs” at 2368.50 or 2364.00. A bigger pre-open bounce that greets the open in positive territory could isolate the probe to the overnight, and trend higher through the morning. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2376.00 would be likely to trigger the 2378.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2383.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2386.25 | 2385.50 |
| …would target | 2391.75 | 2391.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2379.25 | 2378.50 |
| …would target | 2373.00 | 2372.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Potential for a pullback limited to 2387.25-2388.25 had failed to hold this morning, when the 2389.25 bias-down signal put into play 2384.25. Potential to isolate the excess dip also failed, when the bias environment was exited under 2387.25-2388.25.
Closing above 2387.25-2388.25 would have sufficed. That was difficult for a drop into Thursday’s close that had extended down to 2378.00 from Wednesday’s 2395.00 close. Gapping up above its 2391.25 prior high Friday — not just to it, but through it — might also suffice.
Otherwise, the next lower objective in-play is 2372.25-2373.75, and then potentially “lower prior highs” at 2368.50 or 2364.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.