Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/25/17) … Ruh-roh.
The holiday-shortened week started out on a high note, and then went nowhere — fast. Gapping up and extending higher Tuesday morning quickly established the range’s upper-end by attacking the rally’s 2365.00-2366.00 objective. The balance of the week ranged choppily sideways. Choppily, not noisily, the difference being in its singular legs back-and-forth between opposite ends of the range. Without any recovery closing above the range’s upper-end, but still retracing it, we view buyers as the weak hands. Which means that strong hands are distributing. Ruh-roh.
This week’s Saturday Review explains that relationship in slightly greater detail. At least, with charts. We also compare relative behaviors among the major indexes, and find something not seen for awhile. Something very revealing to the rally’s health. And then several requested stocks (listed below) are analyzed.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FCX, X, NUE, IBB, AMD, AVGO, AAPL, GS, BID, JPM, TGT, CRM, BBY
02/25/2017 09:31:54 David B: Good Morning
02/25/2017 09:31:56 Bill G: good
02/25/2017 09:32:30 Mark Glezer: gm
02/25/2017 09:34:13 Mark Glezer: 2500?
02/25/2017 09:43:21 Mark Glezer: what is the likeliest ?
02/25/2017 09:54:35 Bill G: State of the Union may be a good catalyst for some kind of either change in direction or acceleration?
02/25/2017 09:55:02 Bill G: y
02/25/2017 09:57:54 David B: FCX,X
02/25/2017 10:03:37 Bill G: IBB
02/25/2017 10:05:33 David B: with the dow up some many days is this index in an up crash?. is this telling us something about the market when this is happening?
02/25/2017 10:06:36 David B: AMD,AVGO
02/25/2017 10:12:37 Mark Glezer: we had super low VIX for months now, do you see this changing anytime soon consdering the normal few months market cycles that end with a spike in VIX?
02/25/2017 10:17:43 Mark Glezer: just volatility in general
02/25/2017 10:17:53 Mark Glezer: right
02/25/2017 10:25:53 Mark Glezer: thx much
02/25/2017 10:26:09 Bill G: Have a good one
02/25/2017 10:26:27 David B: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Recovering from repeated intraday drops. Meanwhile, hovering at new highs throughout the holiday-shortened week. Something big seems to be brewing, and there are a couple of likely paths that we’ll discuss.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2367.25 | 2366.00 |
| …would target | 2372.75 | 2371.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2359.50 | 2358.25 |
| …would target | 2353.50 | 2352.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending during Friday afternoon’s no-bias environment was unlikely, being both Friday afternoon and a no-bias environment. Even the proxy window was stagnant — until the moment it lapsed at 3:20. Surging triggered a sell signal above 2359.25 that was considered only because Friday Factors can be very productive when they overcome the likelier whipsaw.
And the likelier whipsaw was overcome. Surging into the cash session close attacked 2364.75. A post-close blip-up attacked 2366.00 momentarily. Any higher would have targeted at least 2371.50. But that was unlikely, since the surge’s origin reflects weak-handed sponsorship. The new trend high close was within the range, disqualifying it from requiring any higher close.
But a higher high is nevertheless encouraged. Why? Because yet another relatively deep, steep intraday drop has been retraced entirely. That’s 4 or 5 for the week. At least an obligatory probe of fresh highs is likely. Correcting Friday’s late surge is likelier first. Reversing it back under Friday afternoon’s 2355.75 bias environment low is possible, threatening a “session-long decline” targeting “lower prior highs” under 2347.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday was quickly retraced back down to the 1.0585 bounce limit that Thursday had only fluctuated narrowly around, maintaining the downside momentum targeting 1.0470.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight gapped up Friday to immediately fulfill the 1259.00 objective. Probing higher was retraced back down to attack Thursday’s range. The second consecutive higher close confirms the breakout, requiring at least an eventual third higher close.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up extended higher through the morning. Thursday’s test of the 18.18 objective was a fresh high close, but not an optimal breakout while still ranging around prior highs. But the burden of proof is on sellers to avoid trending higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s optimism may have been ineffectual for not trending higher, but Friday’s open compensated for the delay by gapping up through 152-06 resistance and then trending higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a much bigger rally underway. Closing back under 151-11 would instead launch a steep decline.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down finished off Thursday’s failure to extend its gap up. Friday’s gap down also attacked Wednesday’s test of the 53.68 sell signal that had only been ranged narrowly around.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
With room above to 2.86 as noise, and an attraction to probe under Tuesday night’s new lows at 2.65, Friday’s session only ranged narrowly sideways.