Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Stopped at go.
Still fluctuating around the bias signal.
Will this morning’s 2352.25 bias-down target be retested? Gapping down to it had recovered to probe the 2357.00 bias-down signal, at one point attacking 2360.00. Bias-down triggered anyway, but 2352.25 was never retested.
Ranging choppily flat-to-higher since then has held two more tests of 2360.00, each time reacting back down under 2357.00.
Now this afternoon’s 2359.25 bias-up signal has held to trigger no-bias. Its 2352.25 bias-down signal could be attacked without trending. Otherwise, Friday afternoons are difficult to generate sponsorship for any move.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: I don’t recall when the new week has been greeted with the Durable Goods report, which usually comes mid-week to Friday. But it will be released on Monday, and It is reliably influential and high-profile. Any reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
Robert Kaplan speaks
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2360.75 | 2359.25 |
| …would target | 2366.00 | 2364.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2353.50 | 2352.25 |
| …would target | 2347.50 | 2346.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A good effort.
Gap down bounces, but only so far.
Overnight selling had extended pre-open down to 2349.50. The open was greeted back at the 2352.25 bias-down target. And it held. Rallying from there extended up to the 2357.00 bias-down signal. And it held, too.
But for a blip-up on 10:00’s econ reports, the 2357.00 bias-down signal’s test reacted down to 2354.75.
Price action has since fluctuated choppily around 2354.00-2357.00, but this is a bias-down environment. Despite already testing the bias-down target, bouncing back up to the signal without recovering it does make the target’s retest likely. And delaying its retest makes it likely to break, too.
Sellers aren’t marginalized. Unless the bias environment exit is recovering above 2358.00, another downleg to last week’s “lower prior highs” remains possible.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s post-open 14-point slide was the largest drop of the holiday-shortened week, so far. So was its recovery. The first two sessions were bullish mornings, gapping up and extending through the bias-up parameters Tuesday, holding a test of the bias-down signal on Wednesday. Thursday’s open traveled from the bias-up target to the bias-down signal, expending the most selling pressure of all, and still recovered nearly the entire drop. The session finished by dipping back down to Wednesday’s 2361.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s recovery never resumed as price drifted 2-3 points flat-to-lower. Europe’s opens were greeted at 2359.00, and eventually bounced a couple of points. But only briefly, as a two-hour 9-point slide is probing nearly 2 points under yesterday morning’s 2353.00 low.
If, then…
Is this overnight drop temporary like the week’s earlier four? Of course, their recoveries have been temporary, too. And the last drop isn’t yet retraced entirely. But the pattern has been range bound, anyway. This morning’s bias-down target is already being tested, and its break would be credible for testing the prior week’s “lower prior highs” as much as 10 points deeper. Avoiding a breakdown yet again would target at least unchanged, if not also fresh highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2350.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2352.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal, and next targeting 2347.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2355.00 would be likely to trigger the 2357.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.