Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2363.75 | 2362.00 |
| …would target | 2369.50 | 2367.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2355.25 | 2353.50 |
| …would target | 2350.00 | 2348.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Fresh high, fresh sellers.
Vulnerability at upside target proves out.
Touching this morning’s 2367.50 bias-up target pre-open triggered a reaction down. Its resistance was still influential, regardless of not yet having been put into play at 10:15 by recovering the 2362.75 bias-up signal.
In fact, it wasn’t put into play. No-bias has triggered. The reaction down consolidated at 2362.75, but it was broken at 10:15 on the way down to 2358.50.
Holding a test of the bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2354.25 bias-down signal. A test of the 2348.25 bias-down target isn’t officially in-play, since the 2367.50 bias-up target wasn’t touched post-open. But having touched it only 3 minutes prior to the open does warrant monitoring for its offsetting test, too.
Meanwhile, “unfinished business above” at 2366.00 was neutralized. The opening print is a couple of ticks higher and has yet to be filled — but the first minute’s bar was retested from below, so I’m dismissing that possible upside attraction as too trivial to prevent extending down more substantially today.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sliding overnight into Wednesday’s open had threatened to break under Tuesday afternoon’s 2357.50 lows. Its test held, and so did the morning’s 2356.75 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2366.00 bias-up signal. The morning’s rally stopped ticks short of overnight highs at 2363.25. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. Choppily, as in absorbing a 6-point plunge in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release, which might have derailed an attempt to resume the morning’s recovery. The outstanding 2366.00 became “unfinished business above.”.
Overnight action’s new info…
Of the possible scenarios I described yesterday for actual action overnight, none of them played out. Not that action developed in any other way. Instead, nothing has actually happened, at all. At least, not until very recently. An ongoing 1-point wide range greeted Europe’s opens, where firming has extended to pierce yesterday morning’s high up to Tuesday night’s 2363.75 high.
If, then…
Although none has played out, the possible scenarios for overnight action are still viable. The likeliest path remains testing 2366.00, and then reversing down from its test. Econ reports and Fed speakers scheduled before the open are capable catalysts for triggering a gap down — no less capable than was yesterday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, whose steep immediate impact makes it all the more a failure for its complete retracement. So, unless the open is gapping down under yesterday’s lows, I’ll be reluctant to short prior to probing fresh highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2364.75 would be likely to trigger the 2362.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2358.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2364.50 | 2362.75 |
| …would target | 2369.25 | 2367.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2356.00 | 2354.25 |
| …would target | 2350.00 | 2348.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sliding from 2363.75 at Europe’s opens down to 2355.25 before the open was never probed intraday Wednesday. Not in either direction. Each was attacked to within a couple of ticks — the pre-open low while holding a test of the morning’s 2356.75 bias-down signal, and the overnight high while trying to fulfill the offsetting test of 2366.00.
2366.00 seemed in the process of being met when the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes triggered a 6-point plunge from 2362.50. Ultimately, the session ended essentially unchanged from Tuesday’s 2360.00/2362.50 close. New sponsorship doesn’t seem very attracted to Tuesday’s opening surge, other than to maintain it.
The template is wide open after fulfilling the outstanding 2366.00 objective. Nothing prevents extending higher through it. Regardless of whether it were tested first, overnight action could already reverse down to greet Thursday’s open under this week’s lows. Gapping down deeply enough could even form an Island out of this week’s ranging.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.