Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Half-hearted sellers still selling.
Bias-down signal held its test when it mattered.
Last night’s narrow ranging had tried recovering before the open but only touched the much earlier 2327.25 overnight high. Trending down from there into and out of the open probed fresh lows at 2320.50.
Ultimately, the 2321.50 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2330.75 bias-up target. That’s somewhat in question amid fresh lows after 10:30 down to 2319.75. Fresh lows that are now reacting back up to 2323.00.
Regardless, it’s too late to trigger bias-down. It’s too late to invalidate it, and too early — the latter would be possible by exiting the bias environment under the 2320.50 pre-10:15 low, since there’s been no fresh high since 10:15.
The no-bias signal only inhibits no-bias trending under the bias-down signal. It can’t prevent probing it, especially amid Yellen’s headlines, and their real-time, knee-jerk impact on other asset classes. That’s “no-bias trending,” which requires at least retesting 2321.50 when the bias environment is lapsing or later. Retesting, if not also reversing back up. Today, that’s called unrequited selling.
Holding above the pre-10:15 low would make this morning’s 2330.75 upside objective become “unfinished business above.” Also outstanding above are yesterday’s 2329.00 high and 2331.50 bias-up target.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Is today the day?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
For a third consecutive session, Monday gapped up and extended higher into the afternoon, to a new trend high close. Retesting Friday’s overbought RSI and bias-up target were neutralized along the way. A new (trend) high close neutralized a couple of requirements in the process. Room for noise beginning at 2327.00 was satisfied, and also held through the close. But another overbought RSI and bias-up target were left outstanding at 2329.00 and 2331.50, respectively.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s 2327.75 pullback limit had been violated and a sell signal under 2525.75 was being tested into the close. Gradually drifting lower attacked the signal’s 2322.75 objective to within 2 ticks ahead of Europe’s opens. Narrow ranging from there has been resisted by 2325.75.
If, then…
Three consecutive sessions may be this leg’s streak for gapping up, as none is currently indicated by overnight action. So, is trending higher intraday also ending its streak? Possibly, if not probably — closing yesterday under 2327.00 after probing above it does suggest upside momentum is waning. But probing higher intraday remains possible, if not probable — the overnight pullback still has some room below to 2321.50, while remaining in the orbit of yesterday’s 2329.00 and 2331.50 “unfinished business above.” Even a deeper pullback could test “lower prior highs” at 2313.00 and be attracted back up to Monday’s 2319.00 opening print. Fed Chair Yellen’s Senate testimony this morning will likely be inhibiting, and then probably a catalyst, to send price in both directions. Regardless of the vulnerability otherwise, we can’t yet discount another new high close today.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2322.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2321.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 23219.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2327.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2330.75 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2333.75 | 2330.75 |
| …would target | 2340.25 | 2337.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2324.50 | 2321.50 |
| …would target | 2317.75 | 2314.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s new trend high close and breakout confirmation have already satisfied their requirement for an eventual higher close. And closing under 2327.00 after probing above it does suggest upside momentum is waning. So, reversing down soon is very possible.
But reversing the trend down immediately isn’t very likely. Not without first neutralizing overbought RSIs at the 2329.00 high. Also, Monday afternoon’s 2331.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” It was not invalidated back under the 2325.75 bias-up. Not decisively, being overlapped slightly into the final hour. And not durably, recovering from a slightly lower dip.
A pullback has room for noise down to 2322.75 or 2321.50 just as noise. A deeper pullback should find support down to “lower prior highs” at 2313.00. Even then, the gap back to Monday’s 2319.00 opening print would want to be filled from below. Any lower would suggest a much deeper correction has begun.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Shallow rejection, at best.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The afternoon’s 2325.75 bias-up signal triggered late, but extended quickly. The 2329.00 high is short of its 2331.50 bias-up target, but it becomes “unfinished business above.”
At least, I’ll give the 2331.50 bias-up target’s eventual test every benefit of the doubt, until disproved.
Exiting the bias environment back under its 2325.75 bias-up signal would have disproved it. Having been triggered late, that would have sufficed to invalidate the signal. In fact, 2325.75 was being tested at the final hour’s entry, but not broken.
Another fresh reaction low would be too late to disprove 2331.50 is unfinished business above. But it would be credible for extending down to 2331.50. Meanwhile, back above 2329.75 could resume the rally.