Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing overnight back up to Friday’s 1.0665 high was retraced into Monday’s open and then extended lower through the morning to attack 1.0600, still targeting 1.0570.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 1236.00 gap Friday didn’t attract new sponsorship, as Sunday night’s dip gapped down Monday to the 1229.00-1230.00 buy signal and extended to probe under Monday’s lows and attack 1220.00..
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging sideways Sunday at Friday’s highs above 18.00 didn’t prevent Monday dipping back down to test 17.75. Nothing requires extending higher relentlessly, but avoiding a reversal down would nest target 18.18 above.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday to 151-31 was unable to bounce like Friday’s test, and extended down to fresh lows.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap up to 53.55 was rejected by Monday’s gap down back under it. Which is not necessarily bearish, or at least not immediately bearish, until 52.55 is broken as support.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down persisted into Monday’s open to probe fresh lows nearing the 2.91 target.
Mid-day Update… Target being met.
Rally’s next objective now being met.
This morning’s 2323.25 bias-up target was clearly influential, being the window’s high. But it did not attract counter-trend sponsorship to reverse the trend down. So, as the bias environment lapsing came within view, fresh highs became likely by default.
Fresh highs printed quickly as the bias environment began lapsing, and extended slowly as the noon hour developed. But the slope has steepened into the bias timing window. The 2325.75 bias-up signal is being probed up to 2327.75.
The bias-up signal was also being touched within 3 minutes of 1:20, invoking the grace period. And 2327.00 is being overlapped by every bar probing above it. Triggering late bias-up would still target 2331.50, but is more easily invalidated without probing any higher after 1:30.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speakers come out of hiding this week. Not the least of which is Fed chair Yellen, who does the Senate stage of the traditional Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Three other Fed speakers appear the same day. And this is amid growing suspicion of rate hike potential at the March meeting.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
8:50 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks –
10:00 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:50 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2329.00 | 2325.75 |
| …would target | 2334.50 | 2331.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2120.00 | 2317.00 |
| …would target | 2314.50 | 2311.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… On a streak.
Overnight rally, pre-open recovery, post-open surge.
The open was greeted back at the 2318.00 overnight high, having recovered from a dip to 2313.50. Probing fresh highs through the bias timing window attacked the 2323.25 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. A pullback to 2319.50 has recovered to touch 2323.25.
I’m a little suspicious about extending any higher. Gapping up and trending up without hesitation is excessive optimism. The eventual reaction down was recovered more than entirely before consolidating, which is more optimism. And now RSIs diverged negatively upon touching the 2323.25 target.
Back under 2320.00 would target at least a test of the 2317.00 bias-up signal. It could be probed, but must define this window’s lower-end before being able to reverse the trend down.
Otherwise, extending higher despite the weaker elements would be its own bullish signal. Fresh highs would next target a test of 2327.00-2330.00.